The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (9/24)

Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a look.

All betting lines and information are from the FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats are from the last 30 days via FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles betting breakdown

Rangers (-110), Orioles (-106)
Total: 9.5 runs
Sam Howard (R) vs. Alexander Wells (L)

Three things to know

• The Orioles have been striking out a lot (25.3%) but boast a solid .317 wOBA.
• The Rangers offense is not very dynamic — their .127 ISO and .295 wOBA is among the league’s worst.
• Texas boasts a league-worst 6.8% walk rate over this time frame.

Best bets: I was dead wrong Thursday. I am going back to the OVER, because these pitchers stink.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies betting breakdown

Pirates (+188), Phillies (-225)
Total: 8.0 runs
Sam Howard (L) vs. Kyle Gibson (R)

Three things to know

• The Pirates have a solid 10.4% walk rate, but their .305 wOBA is gross.
• The Phillies have been far better at the plate, recording a .337 wOBA and .193 ISO.
• Don’t plan on a lot of strikeouts here — both have logged under a 21% rate over the L30 days.

Best bets: The Phillies have their back against the wall — take them in F3/F5 bet.

Miami Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays betting breakdown

Marlins (+225), Rays (-275)
Total: 8.5 runs
Edward Cabrera (R) vs. David Robertson (R)

Three things to know

• Miami is so bad at the dish — a .284 wOBA and .155 ISO.
• The Rays? The inverse — over the same time frame, they have a .195 ISO and .329 wOBA.
• What can the Rays get out of opener David Robertson?

Best bets: The Rays have been incredible this season but they gotta keep chugging for home field advantage — I’m counting on them in a F3/F5 bet.

Washington Nationals at Cincinnati Reds betting breakdown

Nationals (+188), Reds (-225)
Total: 9.0 runs
Paolo Espino (R) vs. Sonny Gray (R)

Three things to know

• Can Cincinnati turn things around? Their .292 wOBA is fourth worst in the last month.
• The Nats have fared far better with a .335 wOBA.
• Paolo Espino has allowed 2.09 HR/9 to righties this year.

Best bets: I love a Nick Castellanos home run prop here.

New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers betting breakdown

Mets (+188), Brewers (-225)
Total: 8.0 runs
Tylor Megill (R) vs. Eric Lauer (L)

Three things to know

• The Mets rank ninth in team wOBA in the last month (.334), including a .183 ISO.
• The Brewers have looked confused at the plate, posting a .297 wOBA.
• Has the surprising Eric Lauer turned into a real ace?

Best bets: I like the better-hitting Mets with something to play for over a Brewers team that is locked into the playoffs here.

Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins betting breakdown

Jays (-146), Twins (+124)
Total: 8.5 runs
José Berríos (R) vs. Bailey Ober (R)

Three things to know

• The Twins need to snap awake at the plate — their .305 wOBA and 24.3% strikeout rate is ugly.
• The Jays are still crushing the baseball, logging a .361 wOBA in the same time frame.
• José Berríos currently sports a 25.5% strikeout rate, the best mark of his c

Best bets: It feels like the Jays should have some more juice — a F3/F5 bet makes too much sense, especially after a loss Thursday.

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San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies betting breakdown

Giants (-200), Rockies (+166)
Total: 12.0 runs
Alex Wood (L) vs. Peter Lambert (R)

Three things to know

• Over the L30 days, the Rockies rank in the middle of the pack .316 wOBA.
• The Giants have been pounding the ball, logging a .202 ISO and a .339 wOBA.
• Peter Lambert allowed a .613 slugging percentage to lefties in 89.1 innings in 2019.

Best bets: This is a lofty total, but I love the Giants and some lefty homer props.

Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels betting breakdown

Mariners (-122), Angels (+104)
Total: 8.5 runs
Logan Gilbert (R) vs. José Suarez (L)

Three things to know

• The Angels have been horrendous at the plate, logging a .141 ISO and .280 wOBA.
• The Mariners have logged a .310 wOBA and a .162 ISO over the last month.
• Can Logan Gilbert keep dealing? He’s logged a 26.3% strikeout rate on the year.

Best bets: With the pitching advantage, I love the Mariners here on the moneyline.

Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics betting breakdown

Astros (-122), Athletics (+104)
Total: 8.5 runs
Zack Greinke (R) vs. Frankie Montas (R)

Three things to know

• Frankie Montas has been pretty incredible in the last month — he’s used his splitter more and logged a 2.32 ERA with 31 K in 31 innings.
• The Astros are jockeying fiercely for the moniker of best offense recording a .349 wOBA and .180 ISO.
• The A’s? Their .317 wOBA and .168 ISO isn’t great by any stretch.

Best bets: I think the A’s are done. Bet the Astros here.

(Get all my MLB betting picks here)

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