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The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (8/31)

MLB Bets



Matt Kupferle

Contributor's Page

Each day, we are going to give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a look.

All betting lines and information are from the FanDuel Sportsbook

Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals betting breakdown

Phillies (+100), Nationals (-118)
Total: 8.5 runs

Matt Moore (L) vs. Patrick Corbin (L)

Three things to know

  • The Phillies have struggled on offense recently—both their team wOBA (.312) and ISO (.174) have been mediocre.
  • The Nationals have been similar to their NL East rivals — they’ve recorded a slightly better wOBA (.323) — but have always been tough to strike out (21.2%).
  • This feels like an easy over smash — these hurlers are struggling.

Best bets: The OVER. Expect some fireworks, and even look at some homer props.

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Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays betting breakdown

Orioles (+250), Blue Jays (-310)
Total: 9.5 runs
Keegan Akin (L) vs. Hyun-Jin Ryu (L)

Three things to know

  • The Orioles have been mediocre in the last month with a 23.4% strikeout rate and .315 wOBA.
  • The Orioles have won ONE Akin start this season.
  • The Jays have been struggling — they are actually in the bottom 10 in wOBA in the last month.

Best bets: The moneyline odds reflect how heavy we should be betting Toronto. Smash them in a same-game parlay.

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Oakland Athletics at Detroit Tigers betting breakdown

Athletics (-118), Tigers (+100)

Total: 9.0 runs

Cole Irvin (L) vs. Tarik Skubal (L)

Three things to know

  • The Athletics may have saved their season winning the last two games of the Yankees series.
  • The A’s have been cooking at the dish recently — they are 11th in team wOBA in the last month.
  • The Tigers have stunk at the dish in the last 30 days — they rank in the bottom three in walk rate, ISO and wOBA.

Best bets: The OVER. Both hurlers are struggling lately and that will aid the offenses.

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Colorado Rockies at Texas Rangers betting breakdown

Rockies (-134), Rangers (+114)

Total: 9.0 runs

Austin Gomber (L) vs. Jordan Lyles (R)

Three things to know

  • The Rockies have been COOKING at the dish — they rank second in team wOBA (.348).
  • Jordan Lyles has been awful this season, majorly dinged by the long ball.
  • The Rangers have been the inverse — in the last month, they rank fourth-worst in team wOBA.

Best bets: The Rockies have been really good as of late — put them in a same game parlay.

Chicago Cubs at Minnesota Twins betting breakdown

Cubs (+130), Twins (-154)

Total: 9.5 runs

Zach Davies (R) vs. John Gant (R)

Three things to know

  • The Cubs have a weird profile in the last month — they rank 20th in team wOBA with a whopping 30.8% whiff rate.
  • The Twins held their own for a bit, but in the last month, they are 18th in team wOBA (.318).
  • Zach Davies has to keep the ball in the yard — he’s allowed 2.05 HR/9 in his last 12 outings.

Best bets: Pound the Twins and some home run props here.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Sox betting breakdown

Pirates (+290), White Sox (-360)
Total: 8.5 runs

Bryse Wilson (R) vs. Lucas Giolito (R)

Three things to know

  • The White Sox are smoking — they have a .184 ISO and .334 wOBA in the last month.
  • The Pirates are the league’s worst offense in the same time frame in terms of walk rate, ISO and wOBA.
  • Lucas Giolito has been strong in his last five starts — 32 whiffs in 29 innings with a 0.97 WHIP.

Best bets: The Sox — they are white hot at the dish, and Giolito has been outstanding.

New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels betting breakdown

Yankees (-196), Angels (+164)
Total: 9.5 runs
Jameson Taillon (R) vs. Jaime Barria (R)

Three things to know

  • The Yankees need to wake up at the plate — their .163 ISO and 24.6% whiff rate is ugly over the last month.
  • The Angels are smack dab in the middle offensively over the same time frame, ranking 15th in wOBA and ISO.
  • Jameson Taillon has gotten blasted in back-to-back starts — can he fix this?

Best bets: The Angels are bad, but I do expect runs here as both pitchers have not been at their best. Bet the over.

San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks betting breakdown

Padres (-168), Diamondbacks (+142)
Total: 8.0 runs
Blake Snell (L) vs. Zac Gallen (R)

Three things to know

  • Can San Diego climb back in the race? The NL West is a pipe dream (15.5 games out), but they are still hunting a Wild Card spot.
  • After a huge game in his return from the IL, Fernando Tatis Jr. has slumped to a .133/.235/.333 line in 11 games. The Padres have a .304 wOBA and .139 ISO in the last month.
  • .Zac Gallen has a strange profile — he is whiffing plenty of batters (27.5%) but he’s also allowed 1.48 HR/9.

Best bets: The Padres have been sinking, and fast. I like the underdog here in consecutive days

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Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners betting breakdown

Mariners (+146), Astros (-174)
Total: 8.0 runs

Yusei Kikuchi (L) vs. Lance McCullers (R)

Three things to know

  • Lance McCullers could be ascending to ace status — but the 4.24 BB/9 has to get reduced.
  • The Astros have heated back up at the dish — their .327 wOBA in the last month has them at 11th in the league.
  • A .311 wOBA (Mariners) isn’t anything great, but it’s a big improvement over their last 30 days.

Best bets: I like the UNDER. These offenses aren’t great, and the pitchers are outstanding.

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Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers betting breakdown

Braves (+168), Dodgers (-200)
Total: 8.0 runs

Charlie Morton (R) vs. Walker Buehler (R)

Three things to know

  • The Dodgers keep rolling — they’ve posted a .178 ISO and .325 wOBA mark over the last 30 days.
  • The Braves are neck and neck with the Dodgers, logging a .187 ISO and .324 wOBA over the same time frame.
  • Walker Buehler is likely a top-5 Cy Young candidate — he’s posted a 3.04 FIP this season.

Best bets: The UNDER. I think these pitchers hold the offenses down.

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(Get all my MLB betting picks here.)

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