The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (8/10)

Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a look.

All betting lines and information are from the FanDuel Sportsbook. 

St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates betting breakdown

Cardinals (-142), Pirates (+140)
Total: 9.0 runs
J.A. Happ (L) vs. Steven Brault (L)

Three things to know

• Steven Brault makes his second start of the season, and he was solid in 2020 with a strong ground-ball rate and 21.8% strikeout rate.
• The Pirates have not been very good a the dish — in the last week, they have recorded a .290 wOBA and 26.7% strikeout rate.
• The Cardinals are showcasing almost no pop at the dish — a .131 ISO is one of the worst marks in the league.

Best bets: Take a shot at the underdog — the Cardinals are not good, and Brault has been solid in the past.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies betting breakdown

Dodgers (-164), Phillies (+138)
Total: 8.5 runs
Max Scherzer (R) vs. Aaron Nola (R)

Three things to know

• What will show up? The pitchers who have been dominant or the outstanding offenses?
• The Phillies have been blazing at the dish, logging a .354 wOBA in the last week.
• Like the Phillies, the Dodgers have been outstanding as well — logging a .177 ISO and only a 20.4% strikeout rate.

Best bets: I’m taking the OVER here. While these are two mega arms, the offenses are cooking.

Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles betting breakdown

Tigers (-124), Orioles (+106)
Total: 10.5 runs
Casey Mize (R) vs. Keegan Akin (L)

Three things to know

• The Orioles have struggled at the dish, and recently, it’s been more of the same with a 4.8% walk rate and 23.1% whiff rate.
• Detroit has also been bad lately — their .280 wOBA is bad but their 31.8% strikeout rate is even uglier.
• Casey Mize has been solid this season, and it’s largely due to his 50.0% ground-ball rate.

Best bets: The UNDER. These offenses have been horrendous lately.

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Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox betting breakdown

Rays (+106), Red Sox (-124)
Total: 9.5 runs
Luis Patiño (R) vs. Eduardo Rodríguez (L)

Three things to know

• What happened to the Red Sox? Their .309 wOBA the last week has been downright terrible.
• The Rays are the opposite — they are still smashing at the dish with a .364 wOBA over the same time frame.
• Eduardo Rodríguez has been bombed this season, and the Rays have some lefty killers, including Nelson Cruz and hopefully active Randy Arozarena.

Best bets: A same game Rays parlay. Rodriguez has been bad, and I honestly don’t know why the Rays are underdogs.

Oakland Athletics at Cleveland Guardians betting breakdown

Athletics (-146), Guardians (+120)
Total: 9.5 runs
Sean Manaea (L) vs. Triston McKenzie (R)

Three things to know

• Can McKenzie solve the righty-slamming A’s? They have been crushing lately with a .362 wOBA.
• Are the Guardians for real? They’ve been improving as of late with a .165 ISO and .332 wOBA.
• Sean Manaea has been incredible this season, logging a 26.9% strikeout rate and 42.5% ground-ball rate.

Best bets: Another same-game parlay. I think the A’s rip McKenzie and Manaea continues his dominance.

Washington Nationals at New York Mets betting breakdown

Nationals (+194), Mets (-235)
Total: 8.5 runs
Paolo Espino (R) vs. Carlos Carrasco (R)

Three things to know

• These are two dreadful offenses thanks to a pile of injuries.
• The Mets have almost zero middle infielders right now, and their .264 wOBA and 24.8% strikeout rate is awful.
• The Nats aren’t much better — their .306 wOBA and .156 ISO is ugly in its own right.

Best bets: The UNDER. Both teams are desperate for help due to a rash of injuries.

Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves betting breakdown

Reds (-104), Braves (+112)
Total: 9.5 runs
Sonny Gray (R) vs. Drew Smyly (L)

Three things to know

• Which Sonny Gray is going to show up? Alternating between bad and good starts, the right-hander has posted a 3.69 FIP and 29.1% strikeout rate.
• Drew Smyly stinks. He owns a 5.10 FIP thanks to a very low 39.1% ground-ball rate.
• The Reds are as hot as an August Midwest summer, scorching the ball to a .382 wOBA and .251 ISO in the last week.

Best bets: The Reds in a same-game parlay. I’m sticking with them until they cool off at the dish.

Colorado Rockies at Houston Astros betting breakdown

Rockies (+164), Astros (-196)
Total: 8.5 runs
Jon Gray (R) vs. Jake Odorizzi (R)

Three things to know

• Can the Rockies keep this up? They lead the league with a .402 wOBA mark in the last week.
• The Astros are slumping at the plate, logging a .302 woBA and elevated 25.1% strikeout rate.
• Can Jon Gray keep pumping strikes? He’s been solid in the last month with a sub-3.00 ERA.

Best bets: I’m going wacky with the underdog here — take the Rox in a F3/F5 bet.

Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins betting breakdown

White Sox (-164), Twins (+138)
Total: 10.5 runs
Dallas Keuchel (L) vs. Griffin Jax (R)

Three things to know

• The Twins need a jolt from Byron Buxton — they sport a lowly .303 wOBA and 26.4% K rate in the last seven days.
• Chicago is heating up the plate — they now own a .339 wOBA over the last week.
• This White Sox team is already scary, and activating Luis Robert off the 60-game IL is even more frightening.

Best bets: Another same-game parlay, and find yourself some love for lefty slammers like Eloy Jiménez.

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New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals betting breakdown

Yankees (-154), Royals (+130)
Total: 10.5runs
Nestor Cortes Jr. (L) vs. Daniel Lynch (L)

Three things to know

• Nestor Cortes has been sneaky good lately — he’s logged a 27.3% strikeout rate this season.
• The Yankees have been better, but where did the pop go? In the last week, they sport only a .142 ISO.
• Can Daniel Lynch tame this offense? He’s allowed only 1.00 HR/9, and his 11.7% swinging-strike rate belies his low strikeout rate.

Best bets: I actually like the UNDER here. Both pitchers are better than people realize.

Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres betting breakdown

Marlins (+180), Padres (-215)
Total: 7.5 runs
Braxton Garrett (L) vs. Craig Stammen (R)

Three things to know

• Braxton Garrett makes the start, and he’s logged a 4.33 FIP thanks to a solid 21.7% strikeout rate this year.
• The Marlins stink – over the last seven days, they’ve recorded a 25.1% strikeout rate and a not-so-nice .169 ISO.
• The Padres are missing Fernando Tatis Jr. in a big way – their .138 ISO in the last week is one of the league’s worst marks.

Best bets: The Marlins have struggled, but I like the underdog juice with a bullpen day.

Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants betting breakdown

Diamondbacks (+180), Giants (-215)
Total: 8.0 runs
Zac Gallen (R) vs. Alex Wood (L)

Three things to know

• Can the Diamondbacks be this bad? Over the last week they are second worst in team wOBA and have a massive 30.3% strikeout rate.
• The Giants offense has recently disappeared, recording a .287 wOBA.
• Zac Gallen has an ok 4.32 FIP, but his 27.3% strikeout rate is undermined by a 10.9% walk rate and 1.30 HR/9.

Best bets: A same-game parlay. I love an Alex Wood prop and taking a gander at some Giants home run props.

(Get all my MLB betting picks here)

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