The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (7/22)

Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a look.

Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies betting breakdown

Braves (-138), Phillies (+118)
Total: 8.5 runs
Charlie Morton (R) vs. Matt Moore (L)

Three things to know

Man, Matt Moore has stunk against righties, allowing a .675 slugging percentage.
Charlie Morton has performed like a beast, and they;ve sure needed him to do it. He’s recorded a 3.48 FIP and 27.7% strike out rate.
This stretch will be telling for the Braves – are they going to be buyers or sellers?

Best bets: I love a home run prop for Ozzie Albies in hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park.

New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox betting breakdown

Yankees (+122), Red Sox (-144)
Total: 9.5 runs
Jordan Montgomery (L) vs. Tanner Houck (R)

Three things to know

I was all over Jordan Montgomery this season, and he has been a letdown. The southpaw has logged a 39.2% fly-ball rate, the worst of his career.
Tanner Houck gets the ball for the Sox – can he give them another piece to a much-needed spot in the rotation?
The Yankees need a little bit of everything – despite an expensive roster, they are only 13th in team wOBA.

Best bets: The Red Sox. Montgomery has been pounded, and I like the OVER here as well. Consider a JD Martinez or Xander Bogaerts home run prop, too.

Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Indians betting breakdown

Rays (-146), Indians (+124)
Total: 9.0 runs
Luis Patiño (R) vs. Cal Quantrill (R)

Three things to know

The Rays have pounded righties this year – to the tune of a 106 wRC+. That’s not good for Cal Quantrill.
As a starter, Quantrill has amassed an ugly 5.68 ERA, including a .346 wOBA to lefties.
Luis Patiño may not work deep into games, but he’s been solid. Over six appearances, he’s recorded a 27.6% strikeout rate and 5.7% walk rate.

Best bets: A same game parlay – Patino has been good, the Rays have a great bullpen, and the lefties could hammer Quantrill.

Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals betting breakdown

Cubs (+108), Cardinals (-126)
Total: 8.5 runs
Adbert Alzolay (R) vs. Kwang Hyun Kim (L)

Three things to know

The Cardinals stink against righties, logging a wRC+ of 85 and .295 wOBA. They make for an obvious target in DFS play.
Desperate for another member of the starting rotation, Kwang Hyun Kim owns a 19-inning scoreless streak.
These teams are equally bad at the dish – will the runs show up?

Best bets: The UNDER and even a bet on the road Cubs seems logical.

Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins betting breakdown

Angels (+126), Twins (-148)
Total: 9.0 runs
Andrew Heaney (L) vs. Kenta Maeda (R)

Three things to know

Has anyone noticed how good Kenta Maeda has been? Over the last month, using Razzball’s player rater, he’s SP13.
Andrew Heaney is an advanced stats darling – his 28.1% strikeout is legit, but he does own an ugly 5.56 ERA.
Heaney will have his hands full – the Twins only strike out at a 22.1% clip against lefties, and they own a 107 wRC+ as well.

Best bets: Pound the OVER. I know Maeda has been better, but this screams for runs.

Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners betting breakdown

Athletics (-144), Mariners (+122)
Total: 7.5 runs
Sean Manaea (L) vs. Chris Flexen (R)

Three things to know

Chris Flexen may not whiff many bats, but he’s been brilliant in the last month, with a 1.71 ERA and 1.01 WHIP over 31.2 innings.
Sean Manaea has upped his velocity and he’s been awesome with a whiff per inning over the last month.
The Mariners are really struggling at the dish, ranking second worst in team wOBA.

Best bets: Another same-game parlay, but this time with the road Athletics. I do think runs will be at a premium here as well.

San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers betting breakdown

Giants (+150), Dodgers (-178)
Total: 7.5 runs
Anthony DeSclafani (R) vs. Walker Buehler (R)

Three things to know

Mookie Betts missed a fourth straight contest Wednesday with a hip issue.
In spanning 112.1 innings, Walker Buehler has been off the charts with a 26.0% strikeout rate and 3.34 FIP.
In his first season with the Giants, Anthony DeSclafani has logged a 2.78 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP.

Best bets: The Dodgers blew one late Wednesday, but I like them a lot here. This makes for a great same-game parlay.

(Get all my MLB betting picks here)