Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
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Stat Hero MLB picks for today
Here is a look at my favorite plays on StatHero for Friday’s slate. I think there’s a slight advantage in playing against the Overnight 2 lineup that features Jose Altuve, Yuli Gurriel, Carlos Correa, J.D. Martinez, Joey Gallo and Cedric Mullins.
StatHero MVPs
Your team MVP scores 1.5x the amount of fantasy points and you lose points for strikeouts so pick someone you feel is safe, ideally with a low chance of striking out.
Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals
The starting catcher for the American League All-Star Team is one of my favorite plays of the day. He’s taking on a familiar foe in J.A. Happ who has given up 46 earned runs and 14 home runs on the season, both tied for the 17th most in baseball. Right-handed hitters have enjoyed hitting against Happ for a .349 wOBA, .240 ISO, 38.3% hard contact rate and 45.2% fly ball rate since 2019. Perez has long crushed left-handed pitching with a .426 wOBA, .377 ISO and 41.1% hard contact rate since 2019. They have faced off before and Perez has had success against him going 9-23 with one double and four home runs.
Austin Meadows, Tampa Bay Rays
June is historically a tough month for Meadows so I’m not worried about his recent struggles but he typically heats up in July with a .200 ISO and 110 wRC+. Almost all of his success this season has come against right-handed pitching with 15 of his 16 homers. Alek Manoah has been very up and down this season giving up all seven of his home runs allowed in two starts while not allowing any in his four other starts. He’s allowing a .381 wOBA and .271 ISO to left-handed hitters. Since 2019 Meadows is wrecking right-handed pitchers with a .381 wOBA, .283 ISO and 41.5% hard contact rate. He also hits all four of Manoah’s pitches this season with at least a 118 wRC+. I really like his upside and price at $9,800.
Jose Altuve, Houston Astros
StatHero’s MVP in both of their Overnight lineups and for good reason. Altuve is dominating left-handed pitching with a .370 wOBA, .225 ISO and 38% hard contact rate since 2019. Sam Hentges is coming off a terrible start against the Twins where he allowed six earned runs, including two homers. In his short career he is allowing a .433 wOBA, .226 ISO and 36% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. He is very affordable at $8,700 and negating StatHero’s MVP is a strategy that has worked well for me multiple times.
StatHero flex picks
Jesse Winker, Cincinnati Reds
One of the starting outfielders for the National League All-Star Team, Winker has reached base safely in eight of his last 10 games. Alec Mills has allowed a .394 wOBA and .234 ISO to left-handed hitters since 2019. He has also struggled at Great American Ballpark in his career, giving up 10 earned runs and five homers in just 14 innings pitched. Winker hits four of Mills’ five pitches well with a career wRC+ of 124 or higher.
Anthony Rendon, Los Angeles Angels
Traditionally a lefty killer throughout his career, Rendon has struggled against left-handed pitching this season but in only 63 at-bats. Since 2019 he has a .379 wOBA, .256 ISO and 40.5% hard contact rate against lefties. It has been a tough season for him so far but he has reached base safely in eight straight games so he might be turning a corner. Keegan Akin has been terrible lately, giving up 22 earned runs in his last four starts over 18 innings pitched. In his short career Akin is allowing a .346 wOBA, .189 ISO and 42.1% fly ball rate to right-handed hitters.
Yasmani Grandal, Chicago White Sox
It’s been a tough season for Grandal so far from a batting average perspective, but the advanced metrics are right where we want them, and June was by far his best month so far — he hit .260 with eight home runs. Casey Mize has been better lately, but in two starts against the White Sox this season he has allowed nine hits, six earned runs and three long balls in 13 innings pitched. In his short career he is allowing a .369 wOBA, .265 ISO and 44.6% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. Grandal hits righties very well with a .342 wOBA, .207 ISO and 43% hard contact rate since 2019. Grandal is hitting four of Mize’s five pitches with at least a 124 wRC+ this season.
Yuli Gurriel, Houston Astros
With hits in 12 of his last 15 games including five multi-hit games, Gurriel is having a great season. He is in both of StatHero’s overnight lineups, so I don’t mind plugging him in and using the rest of these players to differentiate. Gurriel loves hitting against left-handed pitchers with a .367 wOBA, .252 ISO and 45.1% fly ball rate since 2019.
StatHero sleepers/values
Brian Goodwin, Chicago White Sox
With hits in seven of his last 10 games, including three doubles and two home runs, Goodwin is fantastic value at $4,700 really helps you get in some more expensive hitters. Since 2019 he has a .343 wOBA, .219 ISO, 38.7% hard contact rate and 43.8% fly ball rate against right-handed pitchers.
Garrett Cooper, Miami Marlins
Drew Smyly has surprisingly turned his season around, winning his last three starts and posting a 2.84 ERA in June. This is surprising to me because since 2019 he is allowing a .348 wOBA, .209 ISO and 40.5% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Cooper has reached base safely in all five of his games since returning from the IL June 25. He fares well against left-handed pitching with a .336 wOBA, .224 ISO and 38% hard contact rate since 2019. Smyly is throwing a four-seam fastball and curveball 91% of the time this season and Cooper is hitting both very well this season with a 132 wRC+ against four-seam fastballs and 178 wRC+ against curveballs. $7,800 for Cooper is too cheap in my opinion.
Note: salaries change throughout the day as news and lineups come out.
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