Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
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Stat Hero MLB picks for today
Today I’m trying out the new 4-on-4 contests on StatHero. Based on my player rater, my two favorite lineups to play against are the Overnight 4-on-4 and the Overnight 4-on-4 II. Here is a look at my favorite plays on StatHero for Friday’s slate.
StatHero flex picks
Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals
I’ve been attacking StatHero with Perez all season and I want to continue with it here. Keegan Akin has been roughed up lately, allowing at least four earned runs in five straight starts. In his short career, Akin is not having the best time with right-handed hitters, giving up a .364 wOBA and .198 ISO. Perez has dominated left-handed pitching since 2019 with a .443 wOBA, .377 ISO and 42.3% hard contact rate. If I had an MVP spot to use, he would be in it.
Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres
Tatis is tied for the most expensive hitter on the slate at $14,000, so he may be tough to fit in, but you know you have a very high ceiling. Nationals starting pitcher Erick Fedde has been knocked around for 14 earned runs in 13.1 innings over his last three starts. Tatis matches up well with him hitting each of his pitched with at least a 136 wRC+ and has dominated against him going 5-8 with a home run.
Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs
Bryant is one of the premier talents in all of baseball but especially against left-handed pitching, where Bryant owns a .438 wOBA, .317 ISO and 39.6% hard contact rate. He had a very rough month of June, hitting a shocking .114 with 26 strikeouts and just nine hits. However, he is hitting .370 in July so far. Madison Bumgarner is making his first start since June 2 after a shoulder injury landed him on the IL. Since 2019, he is getting smacked around by right-handed hitters for a .334 wOBA, .221 ISO and pretty insane 44.8% hard contact rate. Look for some high exit velocities in Arizona.
Matt Chapman, Oakland Athletics
Rookie starting pitcher Eli Morgan had a slightly better start his last time out, but he still has an 8.44 ERA on the season and has allowed at least one home run in all five of his starts. It is still a very small sample size, but he has really struggled with right-handed hitters, giving up a .501 wOBA, .436 ISO, 43.2% hard contact rate and 55.8% fly ball rate. Pitching in Oakland will be a boost to him, but I still want exposure to this Athletics lineup. Chapman is my favorite Athletics righty since he matches up the best with Morgan’s pitches, hitting each with at least a 111 wRC+ this season.
Max Kepler, Minnesota Twins
The first game of a doubleheader for the Tigers and Twins features José Ureña and is just seven innings. Targeting hitters against Urena is usually a recipe for success, as he has allowed a four or more earned runs in five consecutive starts. Lefties have absolutely crushed him since 2019 with a .402 wOBA, .245 ISO and 39.9% hard contact rate. Kepler has not been having the best season, but he was on absolute fire before the All-Star break, hitting .344 with four home runs so far in July. Since 2019 Kepler has been very good against right-handed pitching with a .357 wOBA, .281 ISO and 42.4% hard contact rate. It does look like there will be some rain, so keep an eye on that and consider buying the StatHero insurance if you roster anyone in this game.
Mitch Haniger, Seattle Mariners
Haniger is having a great season with 20 home runs and is a big part of the Mariners success this season. He crushes left-handed pitching with a .366 wOBA and .267 ISO since 2019. On the flip side, Andrew Heaney has not had a very good year, giving up three or more earned runs in nine of his 15 starts this season for a 5.38 ERA. Since 2019 Heaney is allowing a .199 ISO, 43.1% hard contact rate and 44.5% fly ball rate to right-handed hitters. When they have matched up before, Haniger has had success going 6-18 with a triple and three home runs.
StatHero sleepers/values
Garrett Cooper, Miami Marlins
He has been absolutely raking since returning from the injured list June 25, hitting .463 with four home runs and three doubles. Cooper also has been crushing left-handed pitching for a while with a .354 wOBA, .227 ISO and 38% hard contact rate since 2019. Matt Moore is allowing a .346 wOBA, .235 ISO and 44.9% fly ball rate to right-handed hitters since 2019. Cooper matches up well with Moore’s pitches, hitting each with at least a 130 wRC+ this season. He is by far my favorite value at $7,800.
LaMonte Wade Jr., San Francisco Giants
If you need to save a couple hundred more, I like the upside of Wade against Adam Wainwright, who has really turned back the last season and this season. Since 2019, left-handed hitters has had modest success against Wainwright with a .328 wOBA, .182 ISO and 36% hard contact rate. Wade has fared very well against right-handed pitching in his career with a .360 wOBA and .213 ISO. His 40.5% fly ball rate should counter Wainwright’s ground ball tendencies. Plus, Wade matches up well with Wainwright, hitting four of his five main pitches with at least a 111 wRC+ this season and most importantly Wade is crushing curveballs with a 192 wRC+ this season which is Wainwright’s favorite pitch to throw.
Note: salaries change throughout the day as news and lineups come out.
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