Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
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Stat Hero MLB Picks for today
Here is a look at my favorite plays on StatHero for Wednesday’s slate.
StatHero MVPs
Your team MVP scores 1.5x the amount of fantasy points and you lose points for strikeouts so pick someone you feel is safe, ideally with a low chance of striking out.
Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros
It’s nice to finally get him at a price under $14,000, because it feels like that’s how expensive he has been against the Orioles and Tigers over the last nine games. If you’re playing the overnight slate, I like playing him at MVP to neutralize StatHero’s MVP since it is a great matchup, but you don’t have to. Matt Harvey has allowed 57 earned runs this season, the second most in baseball. Since 2019 Harvey has had tons of trouble with left-handed hitters, giving up a .390 wOBA, .249 ISO and 43.3% hard contact rate.
Kyle Schwarber, Washington Nationals
It just unreal how on fire he is after homering again Tuesday — that’s now an incredible 16 home runs in June. Those who know me well know I have been a huge Schwarber fan for a long time, so personally I am loving every second of it. Regardless of my fandom for him, I like this spot against opener Drew Rasmussen and then presumably Michael Wacha, both of whom have struggled against left-handed pitching. Rasmussen has allowed a .356 wOBA and .176 ISO in his career while Wacha has allowed a .348 wOBA and .193 ISO since 2019. He also has a good history against Wacha going 4-12 with a double and two home runs.
StatHero flex picks
Michael Brantley, Houston Astros
Brantley is a safe pick in terms of not losing you points, because his strikeout rate against right-handed pitching is just 9.4% since 2019. He also has a high ceiling against Harvey and is in the StatHero lineup as, well so he’s another good hitter you could eliminate, but you can only play two of the same players as StatHero. Since 2019 Brantley has dominated right-handed pitching with a .395 wOBA, .208 ISO and 40.7% hard contact rate. I love his $8,600 price and wish he wasn’t in StatHero’s lineup.
Jared Walsh, Los Angeles Angels
The young first baseman is putting it all together this season with 18 home runs, 53 RBI and an .894 OPS. Domingo Germán has allowed 14 earned runs and 22 hits in his last 12.1 innings over three starts. Left-handers having success against Germán since 2019 with a .229 ISO and 41% hard contact rate. Throughout his career, Walsh is crushing right-handed pitching with a .403 wOBA, .307 ISO and 44.9% contact rate. He also is hitting all of Germán’s pitches well with a career wRC+ of at least 114. I wish he was a little cheaper; he might be tough to fit in.
Cedric Mullins, Baltimore Orioles
It’s been a fantastic month for Mullins — hitting .385 with eight doubles and eight home runs has gotten him on a lot more radars. Plus, he has gone 7-10 with one double and one homer in the first two games of this series at Minute Maid Park. Luis García has been excellent this season, not allowing more than three earned runs in any start. However, he is allowing a .352 wOBA and .222 ISO to left-handed hitters in his career. Mullins can certainly hold his own against righties with a .351 wOBA and .186 ISO. He is hitting each of Garcia’s pitches with at least a 121 wRC+ this season and is easy to fit in your lineups at $8,500.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Toronto Blue Jays
Gurriel is having his best month of the season, so he is in solid form, and opposing pitcher Justus Sheffield has allowed two home runs in four straight games. Since 2019 right-handed hitters have had a lot of success against Sheffield with a .361 wOBA and 36.3% hard contact rate. Gurriel is demolishing left-handed pitching since 2019 with a .351 wOBA, .268 ISO and 39.3% hard contact rate. He also is hitting Sheffield’s three pitches (sinker, slider, changeup) very well this season with at least a 127 wRC+.
J.D. Martinez, Boston Red Sox
The three-time All-Star is having a tough go of it this month, hitting just .234, but he’s facing a familiar foe in Mike Minor, who is coming off an awful start, giving up nine earned runs and 11 hits to the Rangers. Martinez is 9-16 with a triple and a home run in his career against Minor. Martinez is also one of the best hitters against left-handed pitching in baseball with a .427 wOBA, .321 ISO and 37.9% hard contact rate since 2019.
StatHero sleepers/values
Carlos Correa, Houston Astros
It’s been a fantastic month for Correa, as he is hitting .345 with seven doubles and seven home runs. Harvey has not fared much better against right-handed hitters either, allowing a .396 wOBA and .242 ISO. It won’t be easy for him either considering Correa has .364 wOBA, .244 ISO and 40% hard contact rate against right-handed pitchers since 2019. Correa matches up well with Harvey’s pitches as well, hitting each with at least a 142 wRC+ this season. An absolute bargain at $8,200.
Joey Gallo, Texas Rangers
A big-time power bat at $6,700 feels great. However, there is some risk because he strikes out a lot, although his 31% strikeout rate this season would be the lowest of his career if he keeps it there. He’s also been on absolute fire the last three games, with five home runs. Chris Bassitt has been very good this season and pitched seven innings allowing just one earned run in his last start against the Rangers. Gallo has good history against him, though, going 4-8 with a double and two home runs.
Yandy Díaz, Tampa Bay Rays
It’s been a tough season for Díaz but also one for Jon Lester (although that’s not surprising) after giving up seven earned runs to the Marlins in his last start. Right-handed hitters have had a good time against him since 2019 with a .350 wOBA, .197 ISO and 36.7% hard contact rate. Díaz doesn’t hit for a ton of power but against lefties he does have a .352 wOBA and 38.5% hard contact rate since 2019. I like his upside at $7,000.
Note: salaries change throughout the day as news and lineups come out.
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