StatHero MLB picks 6/25


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Stat Hero MLB picks for today

Here is a look at my favorite plays on StatHero for Friday’s slate.

StatHero MVPs

Your team MVP scores 1.5x the amount of fantasy points and you lose points for strikeouts so pick someone you feel is safe, ideally with a low chance of striking out.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays

What an absolutely ridiculous season Guerrero is having, leading all of baseball in HR (24), RBI (61) and OPS (1.110). Now he gets to face Matt Harvey, who has given up the second-most earned runs in baseball season with 54, with 16 of them coming in his last three starts. Since 2019, Harvey is allowing a .392 wOBA and .229 ISO to right-handed hitters. Guerrero has at least a 146 wRC+ this season against four of Harvey’s pitches and he is shockingly affordable at $10,800. 

Nick Castellanos, Cincinnati Reds

Castellanos is having the best season of his career, hitting .343 (second in MLB) with 14 home runs and a .991 OPS (fifth in MLB). One of the best hitters against left-handed pitching in baseball with a .412 wOBA, .303 ISO, and 42.4% hard contact rate since 2019. Drew Smyly has given up 15 home runs on the season, eighth most in baseball. Since 2019, right-handed hitters are giving Smyly trouble with a .348 wOBA, .211 ISO and 40.2% hard contact rate. Castellanos has a good history against Smyly, going 4-10 with three doubles in his career. The weather may negatively impact this one though so make sure to check it out before locking in any players from it. 

Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros

Playing the Orioles and Tigers in back-to-back series sure has given the Astros hitters some great matchups. They have another one with Wily Peralta making his second start this season after giving up five earned runs and two home runs to the Angels last time out. He’s primarily been a reliever over his last few seasons but has had a hard time against left-handed hitters since 2019 (.435 wOBA, .389 ISO, 42.4% hard-contact rate). Alvarez has a recorded a hit in 10 of his last 11 games, including four home runs. He also matches up well with Peralta’s pitches, hitting each with a career wRC+ of 144 or higher. This is another possible spot with rain issues, so make sure to investigate. 

StatHero flex picks

Rafael Devers, Boston Red Sox

Baseball’s second-best rivalry (Cubs-Cardinals is my personal favorite) takes place at Fenway Park for the first time this season. He’s facing Domingo Germán, whose season has taken a turn for the worse by giving up 11 earned runs in his last 8.1 innings pitched. He has given up 14 home runs this season, tied for the ninth-most in baseball. Germán has not fared well with left-handed hitters giving up a .232 ISO and 40.9% hard contact rate since 2019. 

Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres

June’s been a tough month for Tatis so far, hitting just .247, but this is a great spot against Corbin Martin, who has struggled as a starter and reliever this season (15 earned runs in 15.2 innings). It’s a small sample, so the numbers are pretty insane, but since 2019 Martin is allowing a .478 wOBA, .424 ISO and 45.9% hard-contact rate to right handed hitters. Tatis’ recent form and the fact that he struggles to hit curve balls and change ups (two of Martin’s main pitches) makes him a flex instead of an MVP.

Manny Machado, San Diego Padres

Unlike his teammate Tatis, Machado is having a great month, hitting .316 with six home runs. He matches up better with Martin’s pitches, handling change ups much better than Machado but still struggles some with curve balls. Since 2019, Machado is hitting right-handed pitching with a .330 wOBA, .194 ISO and 41.4% hard contact rate. A great spot for him against Martin for a good price at $10,000. 

Michael Brantley, Houston Astros

Brantley can’t seem to be stopped with 13 hits in his last six games, and he’s hitting .492 for the month of June. He’s one of the best left-handed hitters in the game, especially against right-handed pitching with a .399 wOBA, .212 ISO and 40.6% hard contact rate. He also has had success with Peralta’s pitches, hitting each with a career wRC+ of at least 108. He is way too cheap at $8,600. 

George Springer, Toronto Blue Jays

It’s been a tough couple games for Springer, going without a hit in seven at-bats since returning from the injured list a second time. This is a great chance for him to get back to his old form with a matchup against Harvey. Against right-handed pitching since 2019 Springer is dominating with a .400 wOBA, .312 ISO and 42.5% hard contact rate. Springer also has a good history against Harvey going 4-8 with two home runs. 

StatHero sleepers/values

Tommy Pham, San Diego Padres

Pham is just too affordable at $3,600, and if you’re playing the overnight slate you can match him against StatHero, giving you tons of flexibility without any penalty. We’ve already gone over the reasons to attack Martin above. Pham is having his best month of the season, hitting .300 with seven doubles and three home runs. He also has a 41.7% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching since 2019 and matches up well with Martin’s three main pitches, hitting each with at least a 129 wRC+ this season.

Austin Meadows, Tampa Bay Rays

A super talented young hitter many forget about because he’s on not in a bigger market. Since 2019, he is crushing right-handed pitching with a .383 wOBA, .288 ISO and 42.1% hard contact rate. Griffin Canning is more of a reverse-splits pitcher, so he typically fares better against lefties than righties. However, he’s still allowing a .186 ISO and 42.1% fly ball rate to lefties. A fly ball pitcher against a fly ball hitter is always intriguing for more potential homers. Plus he matches up well with Canning’s pitches, hitting each with a career wRC+ of at least 105. A great value at $6,700.

Note: salaries change throughout the day as news and lineups come out.

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