Best Bets Today – Feb. 19, 2025
FTN Staff
We’re finally at that stage. The Super Bowl festivities are long gone, college basketball is grinding through conference play and pitchers and catchers have finally reported. For those of you who were still in football mode, welcome. Dust off your fantasy baseball notebooks because now is the time to start preparing for draft season.
There’s probably a handful of you just checking in – opening the door a crack to see what’s happening in the fantasy baseball world – without actually drafting any teams. If you’re one of those people, you’re exactly like me. I won’t be drafting fantasy baseball squads for at least another month. But that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t start our preseason process. If you play in higher stakes leagues, I guarantee your opponents are already mock drafting or reviewing our FTN Preseason Projections with their morning Cheerios. We don’t want to fall behind.
Two weeks ago, I outlined a group of players I was fading at their current ADP cost. It’s pretty obvious what I’m going to cover this week, so let’s get right into it. Here are the players I’m targeting early and often at their current value.
This week, I will be using consensus ADP across multiple platforms, just for reference.
Why Should We Target?
This section mirrors last week’s explanation on why we fade players. While “fade” is a word not everyone will recognize, it’s pretty obvious what it means to “target” a certain player in your draft. The real question is why we should target that player.
We don’t target players just because we like them. We don’t target players on our favorite team (unless they are somehow a value). Usually, they aren’t, though. Trust me. We don’t target players who have helped us in the past. We don’t target players based on hype. We don’t target players because talking heads on Twitter told us to do so.
If you do any of those things, you’re almost certainly buying that player at their correct price (or at a premium). Specifically in points leagues, we want to target players who are undervalued by the market. You might say “duh,” but it’s easier said than done. The easiest way to find value in your draft is to look at your league settings and identify players who have a specific skill that is rewarded in your format. For example, most leagues penalize hitters for strikeouts. If you can find players who have excellent bat-to-ball skills, that’s one way to push a player up your draft board.
However, most people usually know this, and the market will react appropriately. In the many years I’ve played in points leagues, the best “values” are the players with elite bat skills who don’t excel in one of the “sexy” categories – like home runs. Even though they will likely score a similar amount of points during the season, those player archetypes, for whatever reason, seem to fly under the radar.
Another reason to target a player is a simple one – you expect the player to outperform their preseason projections. That’s where our site projections can help. Study these projections from time to time and see if you can recognize a major difference in what we project versus your league platform.
Let’s say Steven Kwan is projected to hit only five home runs on one of your platforms. You’ll see that our projections have him for nine home runs this season. That means we expect Kwan to hit nearly twice as many home runs. Combined with his elite K rate, Kwan would instantly become someone who’s more valuable and should be pushed up your draft board.
Another reason to target a player is a post-hype thesis. But we’ll talk about that another day. OK, here are some players I’m targeting ahead of their current ADP.
Jose Altuve, Houston Astros
Consensus ADP: 44, Second Baseman 3
Altuve is a player I have invested in for many years. For whatever reason (most likely his age), he’s always slightly discounted in drafts. First, I like the fact he’s in an elite offensive environment in Houston. It’s a good hitter’s park, and it’s a high-scoring offense that provides him plenty of opportunities for runs scored – and RBIs when the bottom of the order can swing things back around to the top. The 34-year-old is a tough guy to strike out. He’s maintained a sub-20% K rate in every season of his career. He also hits for more pop than people expect for a player who stands at just 5-foot-6. He’s clubbed an average of 24 home runs per season in his last four — and that’s including the 2023 season, when he played in only 90 games.
Altuve still rakes. He’s going to score a bunch of runs. He’ll hit for pop. He’ll even steal some bases (he stole 22 last year despite his advanced age). To top it off, he’s second-base eligible – a position that’s rather shallow. I love targeting Altuve either before or after his current ADP, which is already too cheap. He’s close to a lock for 3.0 points per game in my league (ESPN), which is an elite mark. Also, if you play in a league with a bunch of Yankees fans, you might be able to get him cheaper. I live in the tri-state area, and people still despise this dude.
Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins
Consensus ADP: 103, Pitcher 45
I had to double-check that these numbers were correct. You can get Joe Ryan midway through the eighth round in some of these leagues based on consensus ranks. That’s wildly cheap for the co-ace of the Twins (with Pablo López). I discussed two weeks ago, but Bailey Ober is overvalued. Conversely, his teammate Ryan is way undervalued. We project the right-hander for nearly 200 strikeouts, 12 wins and near-elite ratios across the board. In fact, we even have him slightly ahead of Lopez. Full disclosure, I’d still probably lean Lopez, but it speaks volumes that López is at a 61 ADP and SP21.
Ryan seems to be healed from the shoulder injury that plagued him last year. When he’s been on the mound, he’s put up really, really consistent numbers. In the eighth round and beyond, it’s nearly impossible to find a pitcher who you can roll out confidently each start. He’s going in the Carlos Rodón/Hunter Brown/Sonny Gray range. All three of those arms are riskier assets than Ryan, who I’d be comfortable taking in the sixth round – two rounds ahead of ADP.
Vinnie Pasquantino, Kansas City Royals
Consensus ADP: 107, First Base 9
It wouldn’t be an article of mine without a mention of Vinnie P. However, it’s for a good reason. He’s been undervalued in just about every contest I’ve been in since he came into the league. His only issue has been staying healthy. I don’t view Pasquantino as an Anthony Rendon health risk, so I’m going to assume he plays a full season this year. If so, this is a screaming value, especially in points leagues. Here’s a look at his K rates through his first three big-league seasons:
- 2022 (72 games, began year in minors): 11.4%
- 2023 (61 games): 11.9%
- 2024 (131 games): 12.8%
He’s in an elite tier of first basemen in terms of K rate, so he won’t lose many points throughout the season. In those three years combined, his average sits at a respectable .267 average, and he is coming off a season with 19 homers and 97 RBIs. The 97 RBIs catch my eye, but hitting behind Bobby Witt Jr. helps in that regard. We have him projected for 22 HR/100 RBI this year and a .278 average. This feels right to me. The best part about rostering Vinnie P is that (when healthy), he’s always in the lineup. Manager Matt Quatraro just continues to pencil him in. So to recap, we have a player who rarely strikes out, drives in a ton of runs, hits for some pop and is always in the lineup. That’s a winning player in points leagues. For what it’s worth, Pasquantino was hovering around the elite 3.0 ppg mark in my home league last year, which is a number I look for in elite players, not ones we can get outside the top 100 picks. Bargain.
Yainer Díaz, Houston Astros
Consensus ADP: 112, Catcher 5
You might be sensing a theme here. First, I always love to roster Houston Astros players. Their lineup is potent and filled with players who have great bat skills. Like my last article, it’s important to include one catcher, because it’s a shallow position that can win you a fantasy baseball league if you’re fortunate enough to grab one of the elite ones. Díaz qualifies as an elite backstop in my eyes. How many catchers do you know will hit near the .300 mark while also adding some power to your lineup? Usually it’s one or the other – well, mostly just power. Catchers don’t hit for average. Except for Díaz.
To top it off, the dude doesn’t strike out much either. He has all the ingredients we’ve discussed ad nauseam – an 18.2% career K rate, a projected average close to .300 and 20-plus HR/80-plus RBI potential. And we’re going to wait until the fifth catcher off the board to grab Díaz? The crazy thing is, he’d be an above-average asset at almost any other position. And yet, he qualifies for the shallowest position of the bunch. Make sure to leave your drafts with Díaz whenever possible.
Raisel Iglesias, Atlanta Braves
Consensus ADP: 73, RP7
Let’s finish off this exercise with a relief pitcher. Although my home league on ESPN isn’t as fruitful for saves, I discussed earlier this offseason in my Points League Primer that Yahoo and CBS are platforms where you probably need at least one “elite” arm to rack up a boatload of saves.
Here’s an excerpt in case you forgot:
“Yahoo awards 8 points for a save and there are no penalties for blown saves. If you can find a closer with a secure job projected for a ton of saves, they should be taken early and often.”
“On CBS, saves are worth 7 points with no penalties for blown saves. Same logic applies.”
Knowing this, why is Raisel Iglesias coming off the board as the seventh closer? He should be in contention to lead the league in saves. He pitches for an Atlanta Braves team that should win a ton of games. We have him projected for 37 saves, which would be third in the league – behind only Devin Williams (38) and Emmanuel Clase (39). Sure, he’s had some hiccups at times, but his job security is pretty darn tight. There’s no one itching to take his job. And with no penalty for blown saves on some of these platforms, Iglesias should be one of the top three closers selected. He’s going way too late.
Honorable Mentions
I can’t go through every undervalued player on the board, so here’s a bullet list of some other players I’d be targeting in drafts. I’ll try to include one at each position. These are also players going later than the ones mentioned above. Essentially, these are late-round dart picks I feel could be difference-makers.
- C: Gabriel Moreno, Arizona Diamondbacks (Catcher 14)
- 1B: Alec Burleson, St. Louis Cardinals (First Baseman 26!)
- 2B: Nico Hoerner, Chicago Cubs (Second Baseman 9)
- 3B: Alec Bohm, Philadelphia Phillies (Third Baseman 15)
- SS: Bo Bichette, Toronto Blue Jays (Shortstop 12)
- OF: Joc Pederson, Texas Rangers (Outfielder 72)
- SP: Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals (SP 48)
- RP: A.J. Puk, Arizona Diamondbacks (RP30)
Just a quick runthrough here. Moreno is tough to strike out and hits for average at a shallow position. Burleson just produces when given opportunities. At the 26th first basemen off the board, he doesn’t even have to be drafted as a starter, and he fills multiple positions. Hoerner doesn’t lose many points to strikeouts and adds points via stolen bases. It makes up for his lack of power. Bohm is 1B/3B eligible and an underrated player who should hang around the 2.4 ppg mark (solid value). Bichette is a player I refuse to give up on after one poor season. And being able to take him outside the top-10 shortstops? Come on. Pederson might not play every day, but when he does, he’s a walk-taking, home-run basher who crushes righties. In points leagues, he has more value. Lugo just continues to get it done since becoming a starting pitcher. Yet his ADP never moves from the deepest darkest corners of drafts. Puk is worth taking a stab at the 30th reliever off the board in case he becomes the full-time closer in Arizona over Justin Martinez. Even if he maintains his eighth-inning role, he was pretty incredible last year, and you’re only using a last-round pick to grab him.
That’s it for now. I’ll have a new topic to discuss in two weeks.
