On The Bump - MLB DFS Pitching Primer (8/8)

Saturday’s main MLB DFS slate is a eight-game option — it provides some opportunity to distinguish itself but isn’t a monster slate with some day baseball taking place, including a doubleheader between the Yankees and Rays that could make for interesting lineups in the nightcap.

Every day in this space, we’ll break down the top pitching situations of the day for DFS to help you identify who to lock into your daily lineups for maximum profit.

I’ll first identify the pitchers who stand out given their matchups, price tag and Vegas lines, among others various factors. We will also look at any star arms that stick out, and if there are any cheap pitchers we may want to consider in tournament formats either as your SP2 on DraftKings or as your horse on FanDuel.

Overall, we get Clayton Kershaw on the mound making his second start of the year, Jake Odorizzi begins his 2020 campaign and Chris Paddack tries to turn things around. After that, quite frankly, it’s a slew of mediocre pitching options. Let’s dive in.

MLB DFS pitching picks for Aug. 8

At first glance

Clayton Kershaw vs. SF
Anthony DeSclafani @ MIL
Chris Paddack vs. AZ
Patrick Sandoval @ TEX

Fades

Merrill Kelly @ SD
Jake Odorizzi @ KC

I’m fading both Kelly and Odorizzi Saturday, but for two different reasons. Their salaries make them hard to roster at $10,000-plus, and while it has burned me in the past, I always want to see what a pitcher looks like when he returns from a long absence (Odorizzi). Given what we have seen from a number of major league starters, it remains to be seen how deep the Twins starter will go in this game. Regardless of that poor offense he faces, I’m leaving that one alone.

For Kelly, it’s more simplistic — the Padres are one of the best teams in baseball against right-handed pitching and I want no part of that smoke. They currently own a .342 wOBA in this split (fourth-best), and while their 25.1% strikeout rate is a bit hefty and provides opportunity for Kelly, their .226 ISO is second-best in the league. Stay away.

Picks

Clayton Kershaw vs. SF

In his first outing in 2020, Kershaw picked up where he left off — 5.2 innings pitched, three hits, no walks, six strikeouts. It would appear, thankfully, that he didn’t have any limitations in that first start, which is a great thing. Through a bit of a deeper lens, we see that Kershaw was up to his usual tricks — he walked no one in this outing and pounded the strike-zone with an 80% first-pitch strike rate, and he leaned on that nasty slider, firing it 42.0% of the time for a 29.4% swinging-strike rate. That’ll do, donkey.

The Giants have been surprisingly strong so far this season offensively, but where they struggle is against left-handed pitching. That’s no good in Saturday’s matchup against the lefty Kershaw, as it forces some of their best-bats to either come out of the lineup (like Alex Dickerson did Friday) or not enjoy the strong side of the platoon. Their ISO drops down to .146 against lefties (10th-worst), and this robust offense becomes very league average with a .313 wOBA and 103 wRC+.

Bank on the Kershaw upside and don’t overthink this one.

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Chris Paddack vs. ARZ

Paddack could easily be the best pitcher to own on Saturday’s main slate and his pricing on DraftKings ($7,900) is honestly a bit of a head scratcher. He hasn’t exactly set the world on fire so far in terms of scoring (18.9 PPG), but he’s been extremely solid in his three starts so far — he’s gone at least five innings in each, and he blanked this same Diamondbacks team in his first start for a win and four strikeouts.

In addition, the matchup against the Snakes is a delicious one we want to pick on. Against righties, they boast an ugly .286 wOBA (sixth-worst), and only have a .124 ISO.

Now, to throw some cold water on this matchup, Arizona does own an 18.6% strikeout rate in this split, which makes Paddack my No. 2 pitcher on the Saturday slate — and I can’t exactly edge him over Kershaw. But, with Paddack’s elite walk rate (only 1.6% this season) combined with his overall excellent repertoire, I’m buying in for this one.

Anthony DeSclafani @ MIL

DeSclafani goes a bit under the radar as an arm that had a late start to 2020 — not because of COVID-19, but a true physical injury he needed to recover from.

Now that he has returned, let’s get a primer on the Reds arm. A season ago, he worked 166.2 innings with a 24.3% strikeout rate, which was primarily driven by a slider that has confused right-handed bats, registering a 14.5% swinging-strike rate. It gets even better when we consider the opponent — what continues to befuddle fantasy and DFS players is how wretched the Milwaukee Brewers have started at the dish in 2020. This isn’t just somewhat bad — it’s downright disturbing. Against right-handed pitching this season, the Brewers own a whopping 30.9% strikeout rate (third-worst), a .287 wOBA (seventh-worst) and only a .120 ISO. Yikes.

He’s rosterable not only as your ace on FanDuel ($7,900), but can easily be your SP2 on DraftKings ($8,400).

Let’s get nuts

Patrick Sandoval @ TEX

Sandoval is going to probably be a surprise from a recommendation perspective, but bear with me here.

Like many others we have already discussed, the Angels hurler has a dream matchup on this slate against an offense yet to find its stride in 2020. The Rangers’ 11.1% walk rate is somewhat interesting, but they are a back-of-the-basement option in nearly every other key metric, including wOBA (.277), wRC+ (70) and ISO (.116). Let me give you some expert advice — that’s not good.

The primary drawback to the lefty Sandoval is he only worked four innings in his first start, but Joe Maddon appears to be lifting his pitch count limitations on his starters recently with longer outings from Andrew Heaney and a complete game from Dylan Bundy. In a cup of coffee debut last year, Sandoval more than held his own with a 24.9% strikeout rate and 13.5% swinging-strike rate.

Saturday’s over/under for this game seems rich with 9.0 runs, but with Los Angeles strong favorites, Texas’s implied team total of 4.21 runs isn’t much to worry about. And while it’s early, the new Globe Life Park appears to be playing, as expected, more like a pitcher-friendly environment — according to ESPN’s early park factors, it ranks 28th in park factor and is the hardest park in the league to hit a dinger, making Sandoval a very sneaky option, especially in GPP formats.