Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Welcome to the prop bet tracker. As MLB season gets into high gear, another way to get in on the action is to analyze the day’s best prop bets – from strikeouts to home runs, first to five runs to total bases logged.
Each day, we will try and identify a few picks that are ready to explode in the prop market.
Giancarlo Stanton to Homer (+275, DraftKings)
Look who’s starting to heat up… you didn’t really think that the Yankees were going to be this horrendous offensively all season long, did you? Stanton is still rocking baseballs left and right, but the scary part is that he is pairing it with base knocks, likely implying that he’s starting to see the ball a bit better now. His average exit velocity presently sits at 98.7 MPH with a max exit velocity of 120.1 MPH. Yup, those are both league-best marks. Fire in Jorge López at Camden Yards? Bang bang.
Jordan Montgomery Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+124, FanDuel)
This line shifted from 4.5 strikeouts to 5.5, and if you want to de-risk yourself (but pay for a little bit of juice), you can still get it at 4.5 strikeouts for around -200 at several books. But I am on Montgomery here. The Orioles are sixth in baseball in strikeout rate with a clip of 26.7%. Against Domingo Germán, who has not shown tremendous swing-and-miss ability, the O’s whiffed a total of eight times. Take the juice and run with it.
Aaron Nola Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-124, FanDuel)
I personally espouse a working theory that day games, often for travel purposes, generally lead to low-scoring affairs as players get days of rest. That said, with Yadier Molina already out, I’d expect a few regulars getting a day off. And those Phillies? After Bryce Harper was plunked in the face and Didi Gregorius was hammered in the back, they’re motivated to take the series. Nola, who’s been spectacular this season, faces a Cardinals offense that hammers left-handed pitching, but whiffs at a 26.0% clip against righties. Count on a big day from Nola.
