Prime-Time Props — Thursday Night Football, Week 1
Prop God
We have arrived at the halfway point of the MLB season, and after an electric first half, I am as excited for a second half of an MLB season as I have been in a while.
With the season on pause for the next few days, what better time than now to take a look at my picks for midseason awards.
AL MVP: Shohei Ohtani, P/DH, Los Angeles Angels
This one is fairly easy. Shohei Ohtani has been a top-three hitter in baseball while also being valuable as a pitcher on top of it. Ohtani has hit a league-leading 33 HRs coming into to the All-Star break, so the sky is clearly the limit as he continues to boast truly elite power numbers at the plate. On the year, Ohtani has 70 RBIs, 65 runs and even 12 stolen bases to go along with those 33 dingers. He also leads the AL in ISO and slugging percentage while being second in wOBA, WRC+, OPS and offensive fWAR. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. still gives Ohtani a run for his money as the best hitter in baseball — Guerrero leads the AL in all of the categories that Ohtani is second in. However, with the inherent advantage in this particular award category that Ohtani has with being a talented pitcher as well, the award is his.
Runner-up: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B, Toronto Blue Jays
NL MVP: Jacob deGrom, SP, New York Mets
Pitchers don’t often win MVP. The last time we saw it was when Clayton Kershaw won in 2014; Justin Verlander in 2011 was the last winner in the American League. Those two were the first pitchers to be crowned MVP in either league Dennis Eckersley in 1992. However, if we were going to pick a player to break a trend like that, it might as well be the guy who looks like best pitcher of all time. There are a couple of concerns with this pick for me, as Jacob deGrom has made 2-3 fewer starts than other top-end pitchers in the NL due to the Mets having played fewer games and a couple of injury issues. However, it has been truly special how good deGrom has been this season. In 92 IP, he is striking out over 14 hitters per 9 innings (14.3), higher than second-place Carlos Rodón by more than a strikeout (13.05). He is 7-2 (although W/L record for pitchers is largely overrated when evaluating performance) and has posted an ERA of 1.08 (another stat that is overrated, but not nearly as overrated as W/L record).
When getting into the advanced numbers, it is clear what kind of year deGrom is having. When looking back at the last five years and comparing other first-half performances, deGrom is tops in K/9, ERA, xFIP, K% (by over 4%), WHIP and SIERA. So basically, according to every measurable category, deGrom is having the best year of any pitcher at the halfway point in the last 5 years.
Runner-ups: Fernando Tatis Jr., SS, San Diego Padres
AL Cy Young: Carlos Rodón, Chicago White Sox
The AL is a bit wide open in terms of this award due to the Tyler Glasnow and Shane Bieber injuries as well as the recent struggles of Gerrit Cole. However, you can’t take away from what Carlos Rodón has done, and he has definitely earned this award. So far this year he is atop the AL in K/9, K%, WAR and SIERA while also being top three in xFIP and ERA.
Runners-up: Lance Lynn, Chicago White Sox; Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees
NL Cy Young: Jacob deGrom, New York Mets
There is no real chance that anyone tops deGrom for this award if he remains healthy, and obviously if he wins MVP, he will also be taking home the NL Cy Young.
Runners-up (although nobody is really all that close): Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies
AL Rookie of the Year: Adolis García, OF, Texas Rangers
Adolis García has been fantastic so far this season, leading all AL rookies in HRs, RBIs and WAR, while also top-three in SB, ISO, wOBA and WRC+ — and a lot of the rookies who are above him in those categories have played 40-50 fewer games than Garcia.
Runners-up: Akil Baddoo, OF, Detroit Tigers; Ryan Mountcastle, 1B/OF, Baltimore Orioles
NL Rookie of the Year: Trevor Rogers, P, Miami Marlins
Like many young pitchers these days, Trevor Rogers hasn’t been allowed a very long leash, but he has been extremely effective. In limited time. Among all NL rookies, Rogers is first in WAR, leading by a full win. Rogers has also posted impressive numbers in other categories as well — 10.8 K/9, 2.31 ERA, 2.49 xFIP, 3.34 xFIP.
Runner-up: Jonathan India, 2B, Cincinnati Reds
Comeback Player of the Year: Trey Mancini, 1B, Baltimore Orioles
What a story for Trey Mancini, beating stage 3 colon cancer and returning in 2021 to have a very strong start to the year with 16 HRs, 58 RBIs, a .204 ISO and .350 wOBA. It is great to see Mancini make his return to baseball and pick up right where he left off, slugging like an elite power hitter in the Orioles lineup and making the finals of Monday’s Home Run Derby.
DFS awards
- AL DFS Player of the Year: Marcus Semien, 2B, Toronto Blue Jays; Cedric Mullins, OF, Baltimore Orioles
- NL DFS Player of the Year: Ozzie Albies, 2B, Atlanta Braves
- Second-half DFS breakout candidates: Pablo López, P, Miami Marlins; Bryan Reynolds, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates; Ramón Laureano, OF, Oakland A’s; Alex Verdugo, OF, Boston Red Sox
