Gut Feelings: Fantasy Baseball Midweek Report (5/1)

This column will serve as a mid-week review of the most relevant fantasy baseball nuggets and trends. There won’t be a standard format, yet the goal will be to keep you informed about the fluidity of playing time, batting orders, rotations and bullpens to help guide fantasy lineup and roster decision-making.

Attempting to assess the strengths of schedules in fantasy baseball beyond a week is typically a fool’s errand. MLB rosters constantly shuffle with players going on and off the IL and the minors. Managers are always tinkering with lineups, batting orders, pitching rotations and bullpens. Moreover, professional hitters go through unpredictable hot streaks and slumps – an offense can collectively crush an ace on a Tuesday and get shut down by a rookie making his MLB debut on a Friday. The best pitching staff today could be a bottom-10 staff three weeks from now if they lose their ace and an effective stopper to injury.

Nevertheless, I ran this fun SoS exercise with a 5,000-foot view to help identify offenses and hitters to target for the next 4.5 weeks. I reviewed every team’s pitching staff (rotation and bullpen) and assigned them a grade on a 1-5 scale. I considered each team’s YTD stats, underlying metrics, short-term projected roster composition and home ballpark factors. I used half points (i.e., 2.5, 3.5) for select matchups – specifically for matchups against pitching staffs that may have been under/overperforming.

As you might assume, some pitching staffs and matchups are easier to grade than others.

Fantasy Baseball Strength of Schedule

Here are some series/matchup grade examples:

The Phillies facing the Rockies for four games in Coors Field (May 19-22) is an example of a grade-5 matchup — an above-average offense faces a bottom-five staff/rotation in a hitter’s park. I’ve graded the Padres in Coors Field as a 4.5.

The Cardinals facing the Mets at home (or even on the road) is an example of a grade-1 matchup. The same goes for most series against the Mariners in T-Mobile Park, an extreme pitcher’s environment. T-Mobile’s rolling 3-year MLB Park Factor is 90, which is, by far, the lowest in MLB (Giants’ Oracle Park and Brewers’ American Family Field is tied for next lowest at 96).

My toughest calls are for pitching staffs like the Yankees’ and Braves’. The Yankees’ bullpen ranks sixth in WAR and most metrics, but most of their rotation’s metrics rank in the bottom half. It’s a tightrope act balancing their YTD results with positively regressing expectations and the ballpark factor of Yankee Stadium. Padres hitters in Yankee Stadium earn a 3.5-grade, whereas if Padres hitters faced the Yankees at home, that grade would be 3 or 2.5. A matchup of Mets hitters against Yankees pitchers in Yankee Stadium earns a 3-grade as well, whereas the Athletics in their hitter-friendly park against Yankees pitchers earns a 3.5.

The Braves’ starting pitchers rank 28^th in WAR, 20^th in K-BB%, 22^nd in ERA and 20^th in SIERA. Theoretically, they should be better than they’ve been. We’ve already seen some positive regression with Chris Sale, and Spencer Strider should return soon. Most of the hitter matchups against Braves pitching fall into the 3-4 grade range.

One important part of my analysis that is omitted is the actual mix of pitchers these offenses are facing. Orioles hitters facing Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober and Pablo López on the road in Target Field in Week 7 would produce lower Vegas run totals (under 8 total runs) than Orioles hitters facing Chris Paddack and Simeon Woods Richardson in hitter-friendly Camden in Week 8 (over 8 total runs). Hence, yielding different matchup grades on my 5-point scale. The process is imperfect, and you may argue the differences in specific matchup rankings, but the overall grade should provide us with a general sense of SoS for the month of May.

I’ve broken down each team’s series schedule, starting with the second half of this week (Week 6) through the end of the month (Week 10). I’ve listed the number of games in each series and the opponent (v = home, at = road).

Each team’s grade is listed in the far-right column, out of a total of 45 possible points, where each series/set of matchups is graded on the 1-5 scale by my Gut Method.

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National League

American League

Before getting into the matchups, let’s review some year-to-date team pitching results.

The Good

Data through Tuesday, April 29

The New York Mets have the best overall pitching results this season. Their staff leads the majors with a 4.2 WAR. Their staff has the league’s best ERA (2.27) by a wide margin over the next best (Rangers – 3.05). Their staff’s peripherals (FIP, xFIP, SIERA) rank first or second. Their bullpen ranks in the top six in K%, ERA, FIP, xFIP, SIERA, K% and the bullpen’s ERA is higher than their peripherals, which implies underperformance to date.

The San Diego Padres have the best bullpen in MLB and a top-10 rotation. Starters Nick Pivetta and Michael King have been excellent, Dylan Cease has been up-and-down, and Randy Vásquez is the rotation’s weak link. Also, Yu Darvish is on the mend and should join the rotation later this month. The Padres are almost always a tough matchup for hitters, and even more so in Petco Park.

The Detroit Tigers’ rotation and bullpen rank among the top five through five weeks. Both their starters and relievers have been outperforming their expected metrics/peripherals, though the starters have been less “lucky” than the relievers. The bullpen’s peripherals are all 1-1.5 runs higher than their ERA, and its .235 BABIP is the second lowest in the majors. Nevertheless, Comerica Park continues to suppress offense at an above-average rate, which is great for the pitchers.

The Philadelphia Phillies have an excellent rotation and will be bolstered by the return of Ranger Suárez this weekend. The Rangers, Astros and Royals have three of the best starting rotations in the American League. The Astros are anchored by Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez and will welcome Lance McCullers Jr. to the rotation this weekend after a three-year hiatus. Spencer Arrighetti should join them later this month.

The Bad and Ugly

Data through Tuesday, April 29

The Miami Marlins have the worst overall pitching staff. Their starting rotation’s ERA is 6.50 (4.20 xFIP), which ranks second worst in the majors behind the Rockies (6.73). We’re only about 20% into the season and those ratios will slightly improve, though these were the two teams with the lowest ERA in 2024 – Rockies 5.54, Marlins 5.24.

I touched on the Atlanta Braves earlier. and it’s fair to assume that there are better days ahead for their pitchers. The Braves pitching staff was the best in MLB last season (17.4 WAR), and that was almost entirely without Strider.

The pitching staff that took the biggest nosedive this season is the Baltimore Orioles. Last season, they were a top-eight staff and this season, they are down there with the league’s worst. Their staff has given up the most home runs per nine innings (1.91), they have the second-lowest strikeout rate (15.2%), third-lowest ERA (6.05) and third-lowest SIERA (4.68). We assumed that moving “Walltimore” in would harm the pitchers, but we may not have realized it would be to this degree. They lost Corbin Burnes and only added Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano in the offseason. Zach Eflin is expected to return in the next two weeks and hopefully Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez and Tyler Wells return for the last couple of months.

Best Matchups

Chicago Cubs

Here is the perfect example of why Strength of Schedule is an imperfect science and should be taken with a grain of salt: the Cubs had the toughest SoS in April (20/30 vs. ARZ, LAD, SD), yet they lead the majors in runs scored as we enter May. They’ve scored at least 10 runs in a game against the Dodgers (x2), Diamondbacks (x2), Athletics (x2) and the Rangers. After a relatively tough stretch (Brewers, Giants, Mets), their matchups are as good as it gets as they’ll play six games against the Marlins, two home series against the White Sox and Rockies, and six games against the Reds, three in hitter-friendly GABP. It’s wheels up for their core of Kyle Tucker, Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ and Michael Busch. Pete Crow-Armstrong should continue padding stats in his breakout season, and perhaps we see Dansby Swanson (.185/.240/.370) finally get going. Maybe Matt Shaw makes it back before the schedule gets juicy. Shaw is slashing .290/.405/.452 through eight games at Triple-A.

San Diego Padres

The Friars are hoping to get Jackson Merrill (hamstring) back for the series at Yankee Stadium starting May 5, which would be good timing as they’d then travel to Coors Field, then back home to take on the Angels after that series. The Padres have struggled of late and rank in the bottom third of MLB teams in runs scored. Getting Merrill back should help boost the offense.

Sacramento Athletics

The offense has cooled off, averaging 3.4 runs per game over their last 10. After a home series against the Marlins this weekend, the schedule isn’t particularly appetizing. They will face tough pitching (Mariners, Yankees) for six games at home, then travel south for tough matchups (Dodgers, Giants) before another seven games at home (Angels, Phillies). The A’s will spend most of June facing teams from the AL Central, though they’ll get a series against the Orioles at home, Friday-Sunday, June 6-8.

Cincinnati Reds

Here’s an odd tidbit, though it’s a small sample: The Reds’ offense ranks third worst at home (73 wRC+) and fourth best on the road (119). The biggest reason for the severe splits is matchups. The Reds had an incredible stretch of road matchups against the three worst staffs in baseball – Orioles, Marlins, Rockies – and they scored 24 runs against the O’s two Sundays ago. They hit the road for seven next week where regression is bound to swing back to the mean in tough matchups against Braves and Astros pitchers. Our fringe Reds bats will be streamable again in Week 8 when they face the White Sox and Guardians at Great American Ball Park.

Chicago White Sox

This poor team going nowhere ranks last in wRC+ (75) and has the only offense with an on-base percentage less than .300. Their bats have a rough set of upcoming matchups with the Astros and Royals and later this month, they’ll run into more dynamite pitchers against Seattle, Texas and the Mets on the road. If you’re one of those active fantasy traders actively trying to part ways with Luis Robert Jr., consider sending offers out now before Robert falls into a slump again, getting frustrated with excellent pitchers and his team losing more games.

Home/Road wRC+ Differentials

MLB schedulers purposely set a heavier home park schedule for the Tampa Bay Rays in the early months before humidity and rain begin impacting ballgames there in the months to come. The Rays have played more than twice the number of home games than road games, and the production differential is stark. Their offense ranks sixth (121 wRC+) George Steinbrenner Field and 17^th (84 wRC+) on the road.

There are several offenses that have performed significantly better at home than on the road this season:

• Yankees – 153 wRC+ at home, 126 wRC+ on the road
• Dodgers – 136 home, 94 road
• Braves – 127 home, 89 road
• Twins – 113 home, 81 road
• Blue Jays – 109 home, 73 road
• Cardinals – 127 home, 81 road

In 2024, each of these teams had a home/road wRC+ differential of 10 or less.

• Dodgers – 123 home, 114 road
• Yankees – 116 home, 117 road
• Braves – 98 home, 103 road
• Blue Jays – 104 home, 99 road
• Cardinals – 102 home, 94 road

The Twins were the only offense from this group with a 2024 differential of 20 or higher – 118 wRC+ at home, 96 on the road. There are no major takeaways other than the fact that large home/road team wRC+ discrepancies early in the season tend to regress to the mean.

Since we all play in leagues with different scoring periods (daily, weekly, twice-weekly), perhaps my charts with May schedules and matchup grades can be helpful to folks in different ways. I am publicly sharing this Google Sheet for May matchups and grades so that you can make a copy of it, create your own rankings, add pitchers to the document as they are confirmed or projected for their starts, or simply review it to help identify potential targets to acquire and trade away. We accept that there is much fluidity behind the data, but it’s a fun and helpful exercise that helps extend our week-to-week fantasy baseball focus out for the month so we can make more efficient fantasy roster decisions.

That will do it for this week’s Gut Feelings. See you for some FAAB this weekend.