Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
This installment will circle around spring training, gathering any news that provides us with fantasy baseball impacts. This segment is covering spring training news from Wednesday and Thursday. Now that NFBC Main Events have begun, I’ll be using the Main Event ADP data, which has 16 completed drafts for the sample size.
NL East
Miami Marlins: Edward Cabrera (P)
The Marlins optioned Edward Cabrera to Triple-A after he looked good this spring. This move was expected with the Marlins having a full rotation, leaving Cabrera as the odd man out. Cabrera is one of the Marlins’ top pitching prospects and will get his turn in the majors at some point this season. Teammates Elieser Hernandez (bicep/quad), Jesús Luzardo (hand) and Pablo López (shoulder) all dealt with ailments last season, so don’t get your head down if you drafted Cabrera in DCs.
New York Mets: Jacob deGrom (P)
Beat reporter Tim Healy tweeted Thursday that Jacob deGrom has a tight right shoulder. Then came the news deGrom wouldn’t make his next spring start Friday. An MRI is now set to take place, with deGrom’s status being unknown. This creates a conundrum for fantasy managers that still have their drafts prior to Opening Day. Last article I mentioned the rise of deGrom’s ADP (8) as he was getting to the point of passing Corbin Burnes (6). Now we wait for the MRI results and what the Mets plan on doing with deGrom. There is no telling how this will turn out and is a reason why I’m terrified of investing early in deGrom. It will be up to you to decide your risk tolerance and draft capital you’re willing to invest on deGrom who came into 2022 as an injury risk prior to the shoulder news. I’m not sure how far he falls in the upcoming Main Event drafts until we receive further information.
NL Central
Cincinnati Reds: Luis Castillo (P)
Reds’ manager David Bell told reporters Thursday that Luis Castillo will travel with the team to begin the season. Castillo is set to begin the regular season on the IL, but it could end up being the minimum stay. This is good news for fantasy managers that bought the dip on Castillo. Prior to Main Event drafts, Castillo was getting drafted in the sixth and seventh round. Since then, Castillo’s ADP has slipped to 138. With his IL stint projected to be minimal, we could see a slight increase on Castillo’s draft stock the remainder of draft season.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Bryan Reynolds (OF)
Rumors are swirling around Bryan Reynolds and the San Diego Padres as they attempt to pry the outfielder away from Pittsburgh. Reynolds is quietly one of the better outfielders in all of baseball and would receive a boost in projected counting stats if he were to hit in the Padres’ lineup. It’s no secret the Pirates are lacking talent in their lineup while the Padres have an ample amount of firepower. Make it happen, A.J. Preller.
NL West
Arizona Diamondbacks: Zac Gallen (P)
Arizona has their prize possession back on the mound as Zac Gallen (shoulder) looked and felt good in his spring outing Wednesday. Gallen was able to pitch 2.2 innings, touching 95 MPH on his fastball. The late start to spring will likely have Gallen missing his first start through the rotation, however, it doesn’t sound like Gallen should miss as much time as expected. We could see a bump up in his ADP (175) as he was falling in drafts prior to the positive news.
San Diego Padres: Blake Snell (P), Trent Grisham (OF)
Blake Snell was unable to escape the second inning in his spring debut Thursday. He threw 45 pitches in 1.1 innings, walking four batters, allowing two hits and two earned runs. The initial plan was for Snell to go three innings. The results themself don’t worry me as Snell is working on things in preparation for the regular season. On the bright side, Snell’s velocity has been 95 on average since 2018. Thursday, he sat 95 and touched 96 in his first spring outing, which is a positive sign of health and a potential uptick in the regular season. If you were in on Snell prior to this outing, you should be happy with this overall outcome and what it might do to his fantasy market. Snell’s ADP (94) could potentially dip below Shane McClanahan (96), Nate Eovaldi (103) and Sean Manaea (115).
If you were hesitant on drafting Trent Grisham because he might get platooned against left-handed pitching, fear no more. Padres’ new manager Bob Melvin doesn’t have much depth offensively with Fernando Tatis Jr. beginning the season on the IL. Grisham will likely serve as the leadoff hitter for San Diego to begin the season. I don’t mind his current ADP of 147, making him a viable option when looking for an outfielder that provides stolen bases in the ninth or 10th round.
San Francisco Giants: Alex Cobb (P), Brandon Belt (1B)
Last season, Alex Cobb reached a career high in velocity at 92.8. Cobb signed a two-year deal this offseason with the Giants, which immediately caught the attention of fantasy managers. The Giants have done a fantastic job of getting the most out of their pitchers, and the same is predicted for Cobb. Now we’re seeing reports from scouts of him hitting 97 MPH this spring. I’ll predict this: The buzz on Cobb’s velocity is going to increase his current Main Event ADP of 203, rising into the 150-175 range moving forward.
Giants manager Gabe Kepler said he is confident Brandon Belt (knee) will be ready by Opening Day. Belt is scheduled to get into spring training games beginning Monday with just under a week until Opening Day.
High-Level (NL)
- Upgrade: Alex Cobb (all formats), Brandon Belt (all formats), Luis Castillo (all formats), Trent Grisham (all formats), Zac Gallen (all formats)
- Downgrade: Jacob deGrom (all formats)
AL East
Tampa Bay Rays: Mike Zunino (C)
Rays catcher Mike Zunino has been diagnosed with shoulder inflammation. He visited a doctor coming away with good news as there is no structural damage in his shoulder. The expectation is that Zunino will be ready for Opening Day. On average, Zunino has been the 19th catcher selected in Main Events with teammate Francisco Mejía going 34th. If Zunino were to miss time, Mejia becomes extremely useful as he isn’t a batting average liability, hitting for .260 last season.
Toronto Blue Jays: Jordan Romano (P)
Major leaguers are human too. Blue Jays’ closer Jordan Romano sprained his ankle while out walking his dog. The fortunate news is Romano is expected to be ready for Opening Day. If not, Yimi García might be the reliever to throw a low-cost speculation on this upcoming FAAB period.
AL Central
Chicago White Sox: Tim Anderson (SS)
White Sox star shortstop Tim Anderson made contact with an umpire last season, resulting in a three-game suspension. Anderson appealed and was able to get the sentence reduced to two games. The White Sox play their first series on the road against the Tigers. Fantasy managers will need to have a shortstop and middle infielder in place for the first weekend due to Anderson missing the majority of the series.
AL West
Los Angeles Angels: Justin Upton (OF)
Justin Upton continues his hot spring, hitting .333 with three home runs and 11 RBIs. It’s nice to see the 34-year-old veteran healthy and performing. There could be more to this as Upton is an outfielder but has gotten reps at first base this spring. The assumption here is that the Angels could utilize Upton at first base when they are facing a left-handed starting pitcher. Angels’ first baseman Jared Walsh struggled mightily against left-handed pitching last season, hitting .170 with a 28.1% strikeout rate, 4.7% walk rate and .208 on base percentage. If those woes continue early in 2022, you could see a platoon between Walsh and Upton. This would be terrible for fantasy managers that have drafted Walsh with an ADP of 143, hoping for a breakout in what will only be his second full season in the majors at 28-years-old.
Texas Rangers: Taylor Hearn (P)
Taylor Hearn has looked solid this spring, pitching 8.2 innings with six strikeouts and a 2.08 ERA. Hearn has been getting love late in Draft Champions leagues, but he is being slept on in the Main Event. Hearn has yet to be drafted in that format. With the positive news out of Rangers’ camp and the fact that Hearn is going to make the rotation, he should get the attention of Main Event drafters now until Opening Day. If Hearn is in the top third of the rotation his first outing will be on the road against the Blue Jays. No thanks. If Hearn is fourth or fifth in the rotation, he might draw a two-step in Week 2, getting two home starts against the Rockies and Angels. If so, Hearn should be on your early FAAB radar to begin the season.
High-Level (AL)
- Upgrade: Taylor Hearn (15s)
- Downgrade: Jared Walsh (all formats)
