Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Spring training is a wild time for fantasy players, as we see considerable overreactions to tiny sample sizes, changes in player value due to velocity jumps or drops, and other big swings. We aim to cover notable news, value changes and other nuggets. We’ve got you covered!
AL East
Baltimore Orioles: Colton Cowser (OF), Cade Povich (SP)
Prospect outfielder Colton Cowser didn’t quite set the world on fire on his initial debut last year, but he is making up for it this spring with a ridiculous 1.740 OPS across 13 PAs. Obviously, we can’t take too much out of this, but he is a nice post-hype sleeper in dynasty leagues, draft-and-holds and AL-only formats.
Cade Povich is attempting to capitalize on the openings in Baltimore’s rotation with a strong showing in spring. He is in an elite organization for player development, run support and has a great home venue that is pitcher-friendly. I love both Povich and Chayce McDermott as late-round DC flyers.
Boston Red Sox: Trevor Story (SS), Vaughn Grissom (2B), Kutter Crawford (SP)
Trevor Story has been trying to regain his footing after signing a large six-year, $140 million deal. He has had multiple issues, including a bout of food poisoning as well as heel and hand issues, to go along with his internal brace procedure. Nevertheless, Story looked out of sync upon return in 2023 from TJS and has been striking out a lot this spring. He needs to return to normal levels, or his career could go the way of Javier Báez if he isn’t careful.
Time to review a batch of Boston starting pitchers! Buzz candidate Kutter Crawford is currently killing it in the spring, and his underlying metrics made him a sleeper darling long before his big ST. Two-pitch starting pitcher Tanner Houck has had a fantastic spring as well, a great development under the new pitching infrastructure Boston has put into place. I like both pitchers as solid depth adds in a 15-team league.
Brayan Bello has been a bit meh. Bello is a big changeup guy and doesn’t use a slider as a putaway pitch. Relying on a changeup-first guy isn’t my favorite path, and I am not as high on him as the market.
Second baseman Vaughn Grissom is currently dealing with a groin strain, which puts his Opening Day status in doubt. Keep tabs on this one.
New York Yankees: Anthony Rizzo (1B)
Former Chicago Cubs legend and current New York Yankee Anthony Rizzo reportedly feels himself again after dealing with a concussion and is providing big results. Nestled in a great lineup, Rizzo’s price looks like an absolute steal, assuming he is fully healthy in 2024, hitting around stars like Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. Get in now if you haven’t!
AL West
Los Angeles Angels: Logan O’Hoppe (C)
Young backstop Logan O’Hoppe is currently in line to start 125-135 games behind the dish for the Halos, further proof his volume will be elite. The Angels made it a big priority to start O’Hoppe last year once he was healthy from the shoulder issue, and his volume could be elite this year, barring health.
Texas Rangers: Josh Jung (3B), Wyatt Langford (OF)
Top-of-the-scale prospect Wyatt Langford is riding a rocket all the way to the top this spring training. His batted ball quality and his approach, consistency and power are off the charts. He is a very safe prospect, but one with upside as well. His price will likely only continue to rise with good reports.
Third baseman Josh Jung was recently cleared for baseball activities and began taking hacks on Sunday. Jung is a very good hitter and is part of an elite offense in Texas. Any discount that his drafters were afforded should be a sweet, sweet one, assuming his health.
Seattle Mariners: Matt Brash (RP)
Fireball reliever Matt Brash has been cleared to throw. This is a positive and interesting development after the Mariners beat writer said his injury was very severe. Keep tabs on this one. Brash isn’t out of the woods yet.
Houston Astros: Justin Verlander (SP), José Urquidy (SP)
The future Hall-of-Famer Justin Verlander threw a 60-pitch bullpen session recently, and things went swimmingly for the power arm. He threw all of his pitches, and things checked out nicely. He will be full go for the regular season once he gets a few tune-up starts in spring.
José Urquidy has had a tidy spring, with some good flashes. He pitches for the elite Astros and has flashed before, so he is worth considering late in 15-team formats.
NL East
Atlanta Braves: Ronald Acuña Jr. (OF)
2023 NL MVP Ronald Acuña reported slight knee discomfort, so he was scratched from a meaningless spring training game. The team put him through an MRI, which showed mild irritation. Out of an abundance of caution, the team will have him checked out by Dr. Neal ElAttrache in LA, and Braves’ GM Alex Anthopoulos believes he has no issues and will be ready by Opening Day.
I currently believe Anthopoulos, but I wouldn’t blame someone for passing on Acuña for Bobby Witt or Spencer Strider if you wanted to avoid any and all injury risks. It is all up to personal preference and risk tolerance.
Miami Marlins: Eury Pérez (SP)
Superstar flamethrower Eury Pérez broke his right middle fingernail in a recent spring training start. Issues with blisters, nails and the like are cause for some concern despite sounding like nothing. Feel is very important for a pitcher, so just make sure this doesn’t delay him. I wouldn’t move him down my board because of this, though.
Philadelphia Phillies: Taijuan Walker (SP)
Phillies SP Taijuan Walker is being brought along slowly as he deals with knee discomfort. The club seems to be cautiously handling him because he is a veteran with some injury issues. Walker is borderline for 15-team mixed leagues and doesn’t need to be rostered in 12-teamers outside of streaming purposes.
NL Central
Cincinnati Reds: Matt McLain (SS/2B), Will Benson (OF), Nick Lodolo (SP)
Leave it to the Reds to give us fantasy managers plenty to chew on. Star INF Matt McLain will begin taking live BP next week, a key step back from an oblique injury. McLain dealt with oblique issues last summer; and seeing them reoccur in spring training is not a good sign. Regardless, McLain is an exceptional athlete and young enough to heal quickly.
OF Will Benson has been going ham this spring. Listen to his interview here:
Nick Lodolo is continuing to have trouble with his left tibia, a leg issue that caused his 2023 to be stalled in its tracks as he dealt with a stress fracture. He will be seeing a specialist about this issue on Monday. I love his arm talent, but he is close to off my board with a mysterious leg injury that will not disappear.
Chicago Cubs: Ian Happ (OF)
Cubs ironman Ian Happ is dealing with a hamstring strain currently. This injury can be touch and go and has a flare-up risk, so monitor his status closely. Opening Day isn’t in question now, but watch as this story develops.
Milwaukee Brewers: Aaron Ashby (SP)
Aaron Ashby has had nothing but bad luck after signing an extension that bought out his arb-eligible years with Milwaukee. Ashby has dealt with shoulder surgery and poor performance when coming back on minor league rehab assignments. He has been getting torched in spring training, a slightly concerning development. Ashby will assuredly have workload restrictions as he simply wants to remain healthy. He is best left off of fantasy rosters until he proves he can handle a starter’s workload, despite the enticing skills.
St. Louis Cardinals: Lars Nootbaar (OF)
One of last year’s biggest helium guys, Lars Nootbaar, was a wide-awake sleeper who the masses loved. Nootbaar had a decent year in 2023, with 14 home runs and 11 steals in just 117 games, but drafters let him slip despite his core skills remaining strong.
Now Lars is looking to pull the ball in the air more, a tried-and-true recipe for tapping into power. My interest in Nootbaar was already strong at his affordable cost, and his upside potential just went up with this development.
Pittsburgh Pirates: David Bednar (RP)
Pirates closer David Bednar will be starting out spring training slowly with a lat issue, a concerning development for a big guy with back issues in his rearview mirror. Ultimately, we will need to monitor when he throws again, so I would ding him a round or two if I drafted today with his uncertainty.
NL West
San Francisco Giants: Matt Chapman (3B), Alex Cobb (SP)
Defensive stalwart Matt Chapman officially signed with the San Francisco Giants, inking a three-year, $54 million deal with opt-outs each year. The landing spot for Chapman drew a meh reaction out of me initially, as the Giants are not a very exciting offense, nor do they have a great hitter’s park. His new home venue ranked bottom four in righty HR power, so he belongs after pick 300 as a desperation power-only pick.
In some good news, veteran hurler Alex Cobb will be back sooner than expected from offseason hip surgery and will provide a bit of competence to the Giants rotation. This boosts him a hair in DCs, but he is not a FAAB-league pick with his injury issue.
