Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Spring training is a wild time for fantasy baseball players, as we see considerable overreactions to tiny sample sizes, changes in player value due to velocity jumps or drops and other big swings.
So as we head toward the start of the 2024 MLB season, we’re going to go around all the news from baseball to analyze what matters for fantasy. We aim to cover notable news, value changes or other valuable nuggets. We’ve got you covered.
2024 Fantasy Baseball Spring Training Roundup (3/25)
AL East
Tampa Bay Rays: Jonathan Aranda (INF)
The Michael Busch of the American League, Jonathan Aranda, has proven mastery over the highest levels of the minors but has yet to be proven at The Show — just like Busch. Unfortunately, he will begin 2024 on the IL with a broken finger, hurting his chances of establishing himself as a bat for the Rays. This opens up PT for Harold Ramírez, a potential streamer in max volume weeks.
Boston Red Sox: Kenley Jansen (RP)
Old Man Kenley Jansen has had a barking back and lat, but he appears to be full go for Opening Day — barring a setback. I still like him as a cheap closer, as he will remain entrenched as a closer, assuming health.
New York Yankees: Luis Gil (SP)
Baltimore Orioles: Jackson Holliday (2B), Colton Cowser (OF)
Future star Jackson Holliday was left off the Baltimore roster, upsetting fantasy managers and irritating O’s fans. Holliday has skyrocketed through the minors about 18 months after being selected number one overall as a prep HS hitter. His ascent out of high school to a full-blown superstar is jaw-dropping — but Baltimore will send him back to AAA for further seasoning. This move also allows them not to cut one of their veterans, as the calculated franchise loves to gather up assets out of nowhere, considering they got Anthony Santander in the Rule 5 draft many moons ago and made Ryan O’Hearn into a capable middle-of-order threat off waivers. Holliday will likely debut in the first half, but his ETA is currently unknown.
On the contrary, OF Colton Cowser will begin his year with the big club. Cowser earned it with a big-time .325/.449/.725 slash across 16 Grapefruit League contests. How much volume he gets is an unknown, but skipper Brandon Hyde will indeed deploy the multi-faceted OF.
Toronto Blue Jays: Bowden Francis (SP), Ricky Tiedemann (SP), Jordan Romano (RP)
With potential rotation members Bowden Francis and Ricky Tiedemann having a chance to make starts for the Blue Jays, it provides fantasy managers with some attractive upside arms to chase. Francis doesn’t overpower hitters, but his secondaries are intriguing enough to take a cheap flyer on him.
On the other hand, Tiedemann is one of the best pitchers in the minors, but durability questions surround him. I applaud Toronto’s move to potentially start him in the bigs, as it will allow him to flourish at the biggest stage and utilize his innings in a pennant chase. He is proven good enough to be an effective MLB arm, so let’s not waste the bullets!
Blue Jays closer and hometown hero Jordan Romano is dealing with elbow inflammation and recently received a PRP injection on that elbow. There are some serious red flags. He will play catch on Saturday and ramp up activity slowly. His status for Opening Day is murky, so consider looking at Erik Swanson (barring health) or Yimi García as a saves source.
AL Central
Detroit Tigers: Casey Mize (SP), Matt Manning (SP)
AL West
Texas Rangers: Josh Jung (3B), Wyatt Langford (OF)
Slugging third baseman Josh Jung appeared in his first spring game Saturday, and the team is optimistic about his Opening Day status. Buy the dip, if there is any. This is a powerful infielder for a World Series power.
Meanwhile, “next big thing” Wyatt Langford has officially made the big-league club.
NL East
Miami Marlins: A.J. Puk (SP), Max Meyer (SP), Eury Pérez (SP)
As a former elite of elite pitching prospect, A.J. Puk has seen a tremendous boost in ADP following the Main Event drafts, a nice boost of confidence for those who took him cheaper earlier in draft season. Puk has an ADP of 212.89 in 28 Main Event leagues so far.
Max Meyer will make the Opening Day roster as their fifth starter, an excellent role for a cheap flyer pick. Meyer was an electric arm coming up through the minors, and he could be an excellent source of profit for his investors with his big fastball and monster slider.
This is a reasonably positive news blurb on Eury Pérez: his MRI returned clean, and he will begin re-ramping back up over the next few weeks. Eury must own all formats and should not be dropped this weekend.
Philadelphia Phillies: Taijuan Walker (SP)
Diagnosed with shoulder impingement, Taijuan Walker will begin the year on the IL. Walker was a fringe player at best, so he isn’t particularly fantasy-relevant outside of draft-and-hold and NL-only. Spencer Turnbull will slot into Walker’s spot and could be piggybacked with utility pitcher Matt Strahm.
New York Mets: Brett Baty (3B), J.D. Martinez (DH)
Former top-end prospect Brett Baty will get a chance to make good on his prospect pedigree, as he could be in line for an everyday role with the club. GM David Stearns is doing his due diligence to give Baty an extended look, as he could be an impact player on a cheap contract. I love Baty as a cheap reserve pick with an upside for more.
Meanwhile, J.D. Martinez is a Met now, but we’ll have to wait a little for his regular season debut.
NL Central
Cincinnati Reds: Nick Lodolo (SP)
Nick Lodolo will not begin the season with the club, as his leg issue has delayed his ramp-up process. Lodolo will pitch two games in the minors and expects to join the club April 10.
St. Louis Cardinals: Victor Scott II (OF), Lars Nootbaar (OF), Sonny Gray (SP)
In a flurry of roster moves, Victor Scott II didn’t make the Opening Day roster, which the St. Louis brass foreshadowed with their tamping down of expectations for the speed demon (over 100 steals in 2023, counting the AFL). He still could debut early in the first half with a good showing in the minors.
Lars Nootbaar, last year’s Main Event ADP riser, will begin the year on the IL, a rough development for the well-rounded OF. I would consider a stash here in 15-teamers.
Sonny Gray will also begin the year on the IL, throwing in a minor-league game in the coming days. His progression sounds very good, but STL is being cautious.
Chicago Cubs: Ian Happ (OF), Jameson Taillon (SP), Jordan Wicks (SP)
Ironman OF Ian Happ has been dealing with a barking hammy, a development that won’t disappear quickly. He will attempt to play through it, but a setback could occur. Have a backup OF for him, just in case.
In a flurry of rotation moves, Jameson Taillon will begin the year on the IL with a back ailment, hoping to return to the bump before May. I understand cutting him into a 15-teamer, but I would attempt to hold if you believed. He is a clear drop in a 12-teamer.
Jordan Wicks received a nod in the Cubs’ rotation, a nice reward for a good spring. Due to his pitchability, he is a decent matchup starter in 15-teamers and has solid fantasy SP depth. His floor is decent, but the upside is limited — think of a younger Wade Miley.
NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers: Shohei Ohtani (UT)
MLB will begin a formal investigation following an unexpected gambling story about Shohei Ohtani and his interpreter. More concrete details are available on this story, and fantasy managers have little concern that Ohtani will face suspension given his first-round ADP in Main Event leagues. Still, this story looms over him for the time being.
Colorado Rockies: Nolan Jones (3B)
San Diego Padres: Joe Musgrove (SP)
Typically a rock-solid arm, Joe Musgrove has been dealing with injury and blowups, an excruciating combo of problems for our pitchers. The Dodgers touched up Musgrove in Korea, and he faces trust issues from his managers. He slipped to pick 160 in an NFBC draft over the weekend. Musgrove managers will be on high alert moving forward.
