Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than in any other sport. In fact, there are so many stats that, in virtually every matchup, you can find a stat to favor each side. Rather, we want to find stats that are fully supported by the collection of stats, painting one clear picture.
These are the seven stats I find most relevant to Wednesday’s DFS slate.
1. 37.3%
Spencer Strider is officially a freak. This K rate is absurd, as it’s over five percentage points ahead of the second-place starter with at least 70 IP since the Spider Tack ban. His CSW is slightly up over the last 30 days and now he takes this incredible K rate and a 2.45 SIERA into Oakland.
2. 15.0%
Recall the other day when Patrick Corbin, Madison Bumgarner and Sean Manaea all pitched on the same slate. I pointed to their Statcast data as reason to stack against them all, but none of them had a barrel rate quite as high as Kyle Freeland’s 15% over the last 30 days.
He’s also allowed an average exit velocity over 91 mph and a 49% hard-hit rate in that time. Obviously, this is a recipe for disaster in Coors Field.
However, if we’re going to start with Strider and the Brewers, we better find a way to get awfully different elsewhere.
3. 32.1%
Not many pitchers make the jump from AA to AAA and immediately find more success than they previously had, but that’s exactly what Louie Varland has done in four starts. His K rate improved from 26.4% to 32.1% and his walk rate improved from 8.7% to 3.6%.
The Yankees have a terrible 63.5 wRC+ against right-handed pitching over the last 30 days, so Varland just might be our path to differentiation on a slate without a clear-cut SP2.
4. 93.1
Over the last 30 days, Alex Cobb has allowed an average exit velocity of 93.1mph. This isn’t just the highest on the slate, it’s the highest for the entire day. If Cobb can’t miss Dodger bats, he could be in for a rough one.
5. 1.4%
Everything about Patrick Sandoval is trending in an excellent direction. His 1.4% barrel rate allowed over the last 30 days certainly stands out, but just as encouraging is his 32.1% CSW in that timeframe, nearly a two and half percentage point increase relative to his baseline. My primary stack and SP2 decision will be related — if I’m eating the Milwaukee chalk, I’m more likely to risk Varland. If I’m using LAD instead, I’ll turn to Sandoval.
6. 20.1%
It’s no accident that the first five stats came from the early slate — this main slate is gross. The only thing that pops out to me is Cole Ragans’ 20.1% CSW, a shockingly low number. Ragans has a 6.22 SIERA and a .253 ISO allowed (somewhat small sample), so there’s a good chance Houston is able to tee off against him.
Ragans relies heavily on a changeup, so we shouldn’t be surprised if he ends up with reverse splits as time goes on.
7. 24.4%
Jordan Montgomery has been excellent since his trade to St. Louis, right? Wrong. In his last 30 days, his 24.4% CSW is over four percentage points below his baseline! In other words, his results have far outpaced his actual quality of pitching. This idea is backed up by his Statcast trend, as well:
Washington has a sneaky-good 125.6 wRC+ and .353 wOBA in the last seven days, so they make for an intriguing correlated leverage stack. Speaking of correlated leverage, it’s football season!
