Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than in any other sport. In fact, there are so many stats that, in virtually every matchup, you can find a stat to favor each side. Rather, we want to find stats that are fully supported by the collection of stats, painting one clear picture. These are the seven stats I find most relevant to Wednesday’s DFS slate.
1. 29.2%
Over the last 14 days, Detroit has struck out a whopping 29.2% of the time. Against right-handed pitchers, that number is 28% dating as far back as the last 30 days. Logan Webb has the second-best SIERA on the early slate (3.38), so he should be able to take full advantage of the soft matchup with the Tigers.
2. 0%
Kyle Wright made an interesting change in his last start against Houston. He completely eliminated his fastball, which is perhaps something he should have done a long time ago:
The picture above shows the value of each of Wright’s pitches this season, in runs gained per 100 pitches. In other words, he gains significant runs with four of his pitches, but loses over 2.5 runs per 100 pitches on his fastball.
He posted a 14.3% swinging strike rate in that start against the mighty Astros and had improved Statcast data across the board. I expect him to continue this success in a much easier matchup against the Pirates.
3. .468 & .336
Aníbal Sánchez has only faced 77 righties this year, but he’s allowing an absurd .468 wOBA and .336 ISO in those at-bats. His reverse-split tendencies match his pitch-mix, so I think we can lean into these numbers by stacking Seattle righties against him with great confidence.
4. .264
.264 is Andrew Heaney’s baseline ISO allowed. I pointed to this number in his last start vs. Milwaukee, and he was predictably dominant except for two HRs for Andrew McCutchen and another for Hunter Renfroe. That’s who he is — he’s going to strike people out and allow dangerous contact. In fact, his Statcast data is even worse since returning:
The Brewers have the highest projected ISO on the main slate at .283, but I once again prefer them as a secondary stack, just hoping to get the guys who homer. Hunter Renfroe demolishes Heaney’s pitch mix.
5. .313
Heaney’s baseline ISO allowed is nothing compared to T.J. Zeuch TJ Zeuch’s .313 ISO allowed, but we do need to remember that that’s largely a result of his ballpark in Cincinnati. Still, his Statcast data shows us that it’s not likely to get better anytime soon:
All of these numbers are atrocious, so Philadelphia should have a field day against him. The one thing he does well is keep the ball down, so Kyle Schwarber, Rhys Hoskins, Darick Hall (if he gets the start) and their high launch angles are all in incredible spots.
6. 10.7%
José Berríos is still struggling with dangerous contact, allowing a 10.7% barrel rate over the last 30 days. However, he’s also sporting a 29.2% CSW in that time, including a dominant outing in his last start against the Yankees. He’s fifth on the slate in projected strikeouts, so this sets up as a spot where we can either use Berrios or stack against him and feel confident about either. I’ll go the opposite way of rostership, which as of this morning seems to be a Boston stack.
7. 2.55
Zac Gallen has been incredible this month, with his 2.55 SIERA somehow being one of the more underwhelming stats. He’s striking out 31% of hitters (compared to a 25.6% baseline) and walking just 6%. This increase is backed by a CSW two percentage points above his baseline in the same time frame. Lastly, he’s allowed a barrel rate of just 1.1%, showing how well he’s keeping the ball down.
Meanwhile, the Royals are in a major slump, with a 42 wRC+ over the last seven days. Look for Gallen to continue his string of ceiling performances Wednesday.
