Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than any other sport. These are the seven stats I find most relevant to Wednesday’s DFS slate.
1. Nestor Cortes has a 30% K% this season
Jordan Montgomery has struggled to win games with the Yankees, as he won just six last year and had zero wins this season that is until Tuesday when he coasted his way through seven innings against the Angels with just one run allowed and four strikeouts. Montgomery, Nestor Cortes’ teammate and a fellow left-handed, has just a 19% K% this season. While the Angels lineup certainly has some bats that left-handed pitchers should be afraid of in Mike Trout, Taylor Ward and Shohei Ohtani, Montgomery certainly got the better of them Tuesday (thanks to some help from Aaron Judge, who leaped over the wall to rob Ohtani of a home run). Cortes is a much better pitcher than Montgomery, though, and I expect him to essentially replicate Montgomery’s effort from last night only with more strikeouts. He’s the top pitcher for me on both sites.
2. Robbie Ray has struck out at least eight batters in five of his last six starts
Robbie Ray’s ERA is 4.75, his xFIP is 4.32, and his K% is 27%, but he’s been racking up the strikeouts in bunches of late. Ray has tremendous strikeout upside against the Orioles here as just one hitter in the projected lineup has a K% below 20% against left-handed pitching this season. We’ve already seen lefties like Cortes have big strikeout games against the Orioles this season. Ray will also have the benefit of the Orioles having moved back the fences in left field this season as the game is in Baltimore. The upside is definitely there for Ray in this one and I like the Mariners offense to provide some decent run support here which will make it easier for him to pick up the win here. He’s my second-favorite pitcher on the slate.
3. Jon Gray has a 5.56 ERA this season
It wasn’t a great April and May for Jon Gray, but once again he’s too cheap on both sites here. The Tampa Bay Rays offense certainly isn’t scaring anyone without Brandon Lowe and Wander Franco in the lineup. The Rays were shutout by Martín Pérez and the Rangers bullpen Tuesday night. Despite the bad ERA, Gray is a solid pitcher with a 4.51 xFIP, 22% K%, 9% BB% and 46% ground ball percentage this year. He’s gone at least 5.2 innings and struck out at least four batters in each of his last three starts. The problem is he’s allowed at least four runs in two of those starts, but with the Rays lineup in their weakened condition where Ji-Man Choi and Brett Phillips are arguably their biggest power threats, I think we can go back to Gray here. He’s my favorite value pitcher on the slate on both sites.
4. Tarik Skubal has a 2.98 xFIP this year
Tarik Skubal might not be popping projection models like he should quite yet because those models are perhaps a little slow in catching up to his breakout as one of the 10 best pitchers in the league. We can make this adjustment ourselves and just continue to find a way to get Skubal in our lineups. The Twins are a formidable opponent and Skubal is expensive at $10,200 on DraftKings, but the Angels are a formidable opponent and Cortes is expensive as well. Skubal is another option we can consider if we need to get different on this slate. If Cortes’ rostership were to become egregiously chalky here, I’d have a ton of interest in Skubal as a contrarian pivot. Skubal was well on his way to beating the Twins in Minnesota earlier this season, but the Tigers made a bunch of misplays in the field that helped derail his outing. I like his chances given another try against the Twins at home here.
5. Kyle Bradish has a 7.31 ERA on the season
Kyle Bradish has made six starts this season, and while he went at least six innings with two earned runs or fewer in two of his first three starts, he’s now had three bad starts in a row. In each of his last three starts, he’s failed to complete six innings and allowed at least four earned runs. Bradish has also allowed at least one home run in all six of his starts this season. He’s not quite as bad as his ERA suggests as his xFIP is 4.61, but he’s allowed a .377 ISO to right-handed hitters this year. The Mariners offense has been heating up lately and has the right-handed power in Eugenio Suárez, Ty France and Julio Rodríguez to take advantage of the matchup with Bradish here. Left-handed outfielder Jesse Winker is also a good play at $3,800 on DraftKings. Seattle is one of my top stacks on this slate.
6. José Quintana has a 4.75 xFIP this season
José Quintana’s ERA is 2.15 in nine starts this year as he’s basically been the National League version of Martín Pérez. Quintana, like Pérez, is enjoying a ton of success with a middling strikeout rate (20% K%) by keeping the ball on the ground (47% ground ball percentage). There’s also been some good fortune enjoyed by Quintana this season as his BABIP allowed is .265, which is 40 points below his career .305 BABIP allowed, and his 4% home run per fly ball percentage, which is 6% below his career 10% home run per fly ball percentage. Quintana is obviously due to regress and facing the Dodgers on the road is potentially a recipe for disaster. The Dodgers have struggled head-to-head against the Pirates (of all teams) this season, though Los Angeles is still one of my top stacks on this slate.
7. Hunter Greene’s xFIP is 5.22
My No. 1 top stack on this slate is the Red Sox. Boston’s offense has woken up after a slow start to the season, and now they’re one of the most feared offenses in the entire league. Facing the Red Sox in Boston is not a good matchup for Hunter Greene at all. He gives up a 54% fly ball percentage and a .367 ISO to right-handed hitters this season. Trevor Story and Kiké Hernández are both right-handed hitters who have at least a 46% fly ball percentage against right-handed pitching this year, which at least gives them each a shot at getting one over the green monster in left field. Rafael Devers and J.D. Martinez each have ISOs above .200 against right-handed hitters this season. Greene only throws two pitches to right-handed batters, fastball and slider, and Martinez crushes both of those pitches. In the last three years, Martinez has a .233 ISO against fastballs from right-handed pitchers and a .248 ISO against sliders from right-handed pitchers. Greene will also throw a changeup to left-handed hitters 14% of the time. In the last three years, Devers has a .371 ISO against fastballs from right-handed pitchers, .298 ISO against sliders from right-handed pitchers, and .198 ISO against changeups from right-handed pitchers. The Red Sox are the top stack on this slate for me, and Devers and Martinez are where I start.
