Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than any other sport. These are the seven stats I find most relevant to Tuesday’s DFS slate.
1. Taijuan Walker has a 4.55 xFIP
Taijuan Walker has a 3.43 ERA, but his xFIP is over a full run higher. Atlanta’s offense has been heating up lately and the Braves are fifth in all of baseball averaging 5.00 runs per game at home entering play Tuesday. Walker has allowed a .168 ISO to left-handed batters this season and Matt Olson and Michael Harris each have ISOs above .250 against right-handed pitching this season. Robbie Grossman has struggled this season and is $2,300 on DraftKings, but he had a .177 ISO against right-handed pitching last year and could be batting sixth. He makes sense as a value option to round out Braves stacks, though Vaughn Grissom is still minimum priced if you only need one value guy.
2. Justin Steele has 19 strikeouts in his last two starts
Justin Steele racked up the punchouts against the Nationals and Marlins in his last two starts, and he gets another matchup with the Nationals here. Washington’s lineup is nothing special after losing Juan Soto and Josh Bell at the trade deadline. Washington is 27th in baseball averaging 3.70 runs per game at home entering play Tuesday. Steele also has a 50% ground ball percentage, and ground balls and strikeouts are a good recipe for a starting pitcher. At $6,200 on DraftKings, Steele is certainly an appealing SP2 option with lots of upside.
3. Nestor Cortes has a 2.06 ERA at home
The Yankees have struggled in August. They turned to their ace Gerrit Cole Monday to right the ship, but they had no luck and were handed another loss by the Rays at home. Nestor Cortes has been better at home all year. He struck out 10 batters in his last start and has allowed three earned runs or less while completing at least five innings in his last five starts. The Rays are 20th in all of baseball, averaging 4.14 runs per game on the road. Tampa Bay’s offense isn’t strong against left-handed pitching as Randy Arozarena is really the only power threat Cortes will have to worry about.
4. Justin Verlander has completed six innings in 18 of 21 starts
Justin Verlander has a 1.85 ERA and 134 strikeouts in 136 innings. The White Sox are 18th in all of baseball averaging 4.17 runs per game at home entering play Tuesday. Verlander’s ERA is 1.58 on the road. He’s struck out at least five batters in each of his last seven starts. At $10,600 on DraftKings, Verlander offers you the floor and ceiling you’re looking for from a top spend-up option.
5. Merrill Kelly has a 2.95 ERA
Merrill Kelly has had an ERA above 4.00 in each of the other two seasons in which he made at least 20 starts at the big-league level since coming over from the KBO. The improvement for Kelly this season is notable. He’s allowed only eight home runs in 137 innings this year compared to 21 home runs in 158 innings last year. His strikeout and walk numbers are similar to last season, the difference for Kelly has been keeping the ball in the yard. He has a 2.79 ERA on the road. The DraftKings pricing algorithm has caught on and Kelly is priced at $9,600 against the Giants, which is expensive, but he’ll be a very contrarian option if you can afford him.
6. Nick Pivetta has allowed four home runs in his last three starts
Nick Pivetta has allowed 18 home runs in 129.2 innings. He’s allowed a .143 ISO to right-handed hitters and .200 ISO to left-handed hitters. The Pirates are at home tonight, but I still think they’re worth stacking against Pivetta. Pittsburgh has a handful of minimum-priced players for value options as well as Bryan Reynolds, who has a .231 ISO against right-handed pitching and is $4,000 on DraftKings. Oneil Cruz also has a lot of power at the shortstop position (.234 ISO against right-handed pitching) and is $3,900 on DraftKings.
7. José Suarez has a 5.12 xFIP
José Suarez has pitched well lately, completing at least five innings without allowing an earned run in each of his last three starts. He’s not this good, though, and the Mariners are in position to take advantage of Suarez being due for negative regression. Suarez has allowed a .175 ISO to right-handed hitters. The Mariners have Julio Rodríguez, Eugenio Suárez, Sam Haggerty, Curt Casali and Dylan Moore all with ISOs above .170 against left-handed pitching. Seattle’s offense is on the road in this spot, which is a boost for the offense as it’s a ballpark upgrade.
