Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than any other sport. These are the seven stats I find most relevant to Thursday’s DFS slate.
1. Paolo Espino has a 5.17 xFIP
Despite Paolo Espino’s 3.78 ERA, his xFIP is much higher. His power prevention numbers aren’t good against right-handed hitters, as he’s allowed a .214 ISO against them. Rhys Hoskins should be a priority in Phillies stacks as he has a .203 ISO against right-handed pitching this season, costs $4,000 on DraftKings and bats second. Nick Castellanos is even cheaper at $3,200 and has hit .389 with one home run in his last nine games. Winds are blowing out to left field at 10 mph for this game. Kyle Schwarber has a .339 ISO against right-handed pitching and is my top overall play on the slate. The Phillies are my top overall stack on the slate.
2. Drew Hutchison has a 5.83 xFIP
Drew Hutchison has a 4.53 ERA, but his xFIP is still over a run higher. He’s allowed a .171 ISO to left-handed batters this year. Brandon Lowe is one of the best plays on the slate. Lowe had a .319 ISO against right-handed batters last year and he’s at .169 this year. Newly acquired David Peralta has a .223 ISO against right-handed pitching. Hutchison doesn’t strike out many batters as he has a 15% K% and he walks quite a few with an 11% K%. The Rays aren’t expensive beside Lowe and Jose Siri is minimum priced at $2,000, batting seventh. Siri had six steals and was only caught once in 48 games for the Astros, but already has one steal in two games with the Rays.
3. Noah Syndergaard has a 4.82 xFIP
I think the over in the Phillies/Nationals game at nine (+100) might be a good bet, because I have interest in stacking both of these teams. Noah Syndergaard has a 3.83 ERA, but his xFIP is a full run higher and his ERA is 4.34 over his last five starts. Everyone knows by this point in the season that he’s been terrible at preventing stolen bases when he’s on the mound. That makes Victor Robles a really interesting play at $2,300 as he has 13 stolen bases on the season and his bat has really perked up in the second half as he has a .133 ISO since the All-Star break. Luke Voit is another interesting play here as he has a .242 ISO against right-handed pitching and of course there’s the narrative that Voit will take out all of his anger from the Padres trading him out on the baseball.
4. Nick Pivetta has a 5.03 xFIP
4.47 ERA for Nick Pivetta this season, but his xFIP is still higher and he has a 9.38 ERA over his last five starts. Pivetta has allowed a .193 ISO to left-handed hitters this season. MJ Melendez and Nick Pratto each have ISOs above .170 against right-handed pitching this season. Melendez is eligible at catcher and outfielder and is $4,500 on DraftKings. Pratto is minimum priced. The Royals also have Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Perez and Hunter Dozier. who all have ISOs above .190 against right-handed pitching this season. The Royals feel like a good stack given the matchup and that they have a mix of good expensive players and usable cheap players.
5. José Quintana has a 3.50 ERA
While José Quintana’s xFIP is higher at 4.31 and he’s making his first start for the Cardinals here, I think he’s too cheap here at $6,700 on DraftKings. Quintana has a 20% K% and 7% BB%, but more importantly he has a 45% ground ball percentage. He’s also allowed just a .138 ISO to right-handed batters. That will be important as well as the Cubs have some power in the lineup as Willson Contreras, Patrick Wisdom and Seiya Suzuki all have ISOs over .200 against left-handed pitching this season. Still, there’s also some strikeout potential in this lineup as six hitters in the Cubs’ projected lineup have a K% above 20% against left-handed pitching this season. Quintana is my favorite value SP2 on DraftKings.
6. Justin Verlander has a 1.81 ERA
Justin Verlander is going for the American League Cy Young once again. This hasn’t been a great strikeout year for him, though, at least on an efficiency basis. Verlander has a 25% K% this year, which is his lowest since 2017 and a notch below what we used to see out of him with the Astros, a 33 to 35% K%. The Guardians also don’t strike out a lot as only three players in their projected lineup have a K% above 20% against right-handed pitching this season. This doesn’t seem like a recipe for a ceiling game here from Verlander necessarily, but he’s still the easy SP1 for me on the slate because of the lack of options around him. Verlander is my favorite pitcher over $8,000 on DraftKings.
7. Cole Ragans had a 27% K% in Triple-A
Cole Ragans had a 3.32 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, .210 AVG against, 7% BB% and 45% ground ball percentage. He only allowed four home runs in eight starts. He’s making his MLB debut for the Rangers against the White Sox and he’s $5,100 on DraftKings. Only José Abreu and AJ Pollock have ISOs above .200 against left-handed pitching in the White Sox projected lineup. Ragans is certainly in play as a viable punt play given his price, the matchup, and the lack of high-end starting pitching options we need to prioritize on this slate.
