Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than in any other sport. In fact, there are so many stats that, in virtually every matchup, you can find a stat to favor each side. Rather, we want to find stats that are fully supported by the collection of stats, painting one clear picture.
These are the seven stats I find most relevant to Thursday’s DFS slate.
1. 105.2
Over the past month, Adam Wainwright has averaged 105.2 pitches per start, bottoming out at 99 pitches. In fact, he hasn’t thrown fewer than 99 pitches since June 17!
He continuously pushes or exceeds 110 pitches, something very few pitchers in baseball can say, which gives Wainwright an extreme advantage on a site like DraftKings that rewards outs recorded.
2. -2.7%
Lucas Giolito is struggling, as evidenced by his 26.5% CSW over the last 30 days. This is 2.7 percentage points below his baseline. But it’s not all bad for Giolito. His Statcast data is actually quite impressive over that time. It’s rare to see a pitcher struggling with command yet excelling at preventing dangerous contact. I’m wondering if his string of weaker opponents is causing the batted ball data to look better than it should.
Houston has the highest projected ISO on the slate according to the Strikeout Model, so there’s a good chance Houston will be my top stack if the field is respecting Giolito and avoiding them.
3. 4.25
I don’t like to target Antonio Senzatela due to his strong batted ball data and ability to keep the ball down, but Colorado’s bullpen has a 4.25 SIERA. No other bullpen has a SIERA over 3.68 on the early slate.
Their ISOs allowed to each hand and Statcast data paint similar pictures that this bullpen can be relentlessly attacked. On a slate that should be fairly low scoring, a few great innings against the pen could be all the Cardinals need.
4. .253
Andrew Heaney has 19 K’s and just 3 ERs allowed in 15.2 innings since his return. However, he’s allowed a 42.5% hard-hit rate in that time and has historically struggled immensely with power prevention — his baseline ISO allowed is .253. The Brewers would have to get to him early and often though, as he’s capped around 80/85 pitches these days and backed by an excellent bullpen.
5. 7.4
Only 7.4 points separate Corbin Burnes from Dane Dunning in the Strikeout Model’s median projections. Burnes is second to Wainwright in projected DK points, so this essentially tells us that we can leave the SP2 decision to whomever fits best with our stacks.
6. 42.7%
This is the single most ridiculous stat that I’ve ever put into a Diamond Data article. Since the Spider Tack ban last season, Spencer Strider has the second-best K%-BB% among starting pitchers, at 27.7%. Jacob deGrom is first, with a differential of 42.7%!
Not even relievers can compete with this number, as Edwin Díaz is second at 35.1%. It’s not an exaggeration to say that Jacob deGrom may be pitching at a level never seen before in baseball. Even capped at 85 pitches Thursday, he has some of the best projections we’ve seen all season in the Strikeout Model.
7. 51.6%
The polar opposite of Lucas Giolito’s recent trend is JT Brubaker’s. Brubaker’s CSW is up to 30.5% over the last 30 days, yet his Statcast data is awful. He’s allowing an average exit velocity over 92mph, a barrel rate over 10%, and a 51.6% hard-hit rate in that time. This is the ultimate “play both sides” matchup — either JT will skate by without too much dangerous contact and be a great value due to his K upside, or the Red Sox will get to him and likely be a top-scoring stack on the slate.
