Diamond Data — 7 Stats to Know for MLB DFS Monday (9/12)

Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than in any other sport. In fact, there are so many stats that, in virtually every matchup, you can find a stat to favor each side. 

Rather, we want to find stats that are fully supported by the collection of data, painting one clear picture. These are the seven stats I find most relevant to Monday’s DFS slate. 

1. 38.1%

It’s hard to overstate Spencer Strider’s brilliance this season. Among pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched, Shohei Ohtani is second with a 33.0% K rate. Strider is first at 38.1%. For context, that 5.1 percentage-point gap is larger than the gap between second place and 16th place.

Strider gets SF and their 27.8% K rate over the last 14 days, making him an absolute lock for me. I also threw a K ladder bet series for him into the Bet Tracker.

2. 34.5%

Ryne Nelson was phenomenal in his MLB debut against San Diego. He threw seven scoreless innings with a 7:0 K:BB ratio. His stellar performance was backed by a 34.5% CSW, showing that he wasn’t lucky in the game – he was just flat out good.

I don’t have much interest in him tonight, but I do think his impressive performance means I’ll be fading a chalky Dodgers team, as they have the highest implied run total by almost half a run.

3. 12.1%

Bryan Hoeing struck out just 12.1% of AAA hitters this season. That’s a remarkably low number, and his 22.6% CSW in his MLB debut suggests it will remain super low at the big-league level.

A pitcher with such inability to miss bats has to rely on producing soft contact. However, Hoeing allowed hard contact throughout his debut:

So, we have a pitcher who can’t miss bats, yet gives up dangerous contact anyway, facing an offense (Texas) full of hitters who either swing and miss or drive the ball. This is a match made in heaven for the boom-or-bust Rangers.

4. .212

.212 is Bryse Wilson’s baseline ISO allowed. His Statcast data paints an equally intriguing picture:

Of course, it’s also important to note that while Cincinnati isn’t the greatest offense, Great American Ball Park is Coors Field Lite. This season, it’s boosted HRs by an estimated 38% according to Statcast’s park factors, with a 48% boost dating back to the 2020 season. The result is a slate-leading .282 projected ISO for a really cheap Cincinnati stack.

5. 92.6

The pitcher on tonight’s slate with the largest difference between their baseline and L30 day Statcast profile has to be Alex Cobb:

Atlanta hits the ball hard against everyone, so they can certainly take advantage of this downward trend from Cobb. Additionally, they project really well against Cobb’s sinker-splitter profile:

• wSI/C = runs gained against the sinker per 100 pitches
• wFS/C = runs gained against the splitter per 100 pitches

6. .172

José Berríos’ .172 baseline ISO allowed is higher than the typical pitcher with a SIERA under 4.0. This is who Berrios is, and it’s backed by his Statcast data – he’s a good pitcher, but when he gets hit, he gets hit hard:

Tampa has a chance to take full advantage at extremely low ownership. Tampa lacks the HR upside of most popular stacks, but they make up for it by stringing together sustained rallies, so I prefer a primary stack over a mini-stack to maximize the correlation benefit.

7. 15.2

Framber Valdez has an underwhelming 22.5% baseline K rate. However, his elite 15.2 pitch per inning ratio tells us he has the potential for more Ks. This potential has been realized in the last 30 days – his CSW has jumped from 28.7% to 31.4%, resulting in a K rate north of 28%.

He should be able to continue this string of success against the Tigers, making him my preferred option with Strider over a chalkier Chris Bassitt and his troubling CSW trend.