Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than in any other sport. These are the seven stats I find most relevant to Monday’s eight-game slate DFS slate.
1. The Cardinals have a league-high wOBA, wRC+, OPS and OBP vs LHP.
St. Louis enters with a .351 wOBA, 130 wRC+, .811 OPS and .347 OBP against left-handed pitchers. Paul Goldschmidt leads baseball in AVG (.435), wOBA (.568) and wRC+ (276) against southpaws. He leads St. Louis in doubles (11) and his nine homers are tied for the team-high with Albert Pujols. Pujols, by the way, checks in second on the team in wOBA (.492), average (.388) and wRC+ (225) against lefties. Drew Smyly has a 42% fly-ball rate, which has led to 11 homers over 76 innings, and he’s allowed 38 in his last 200 innings. Goldy is tied for the league-high in home runs over the last month with 10. I say he adds to that total tonight.
2. Matt Olson leads Atlanta in home runs and doubles vs RHP.
Matt Olson’s 22 home runs against righties are the sixth most in baseball, and his 27 doubles rank third. Austin Riley has also crushed righties, as he enters today’s play with 43 extra-base hits. In fact, the Braves are one of the best hitting teams in baseball against RHP. They rank inside the top five in wOBA, OPS and ISO. Roansy Contreras walked four batters over six innings in his first start since getting recalled, and he’s walking 4.18 batters per nine innings. If he walks three or four tonight, the Braves will likely get to him.
3. The Angels lead MLB in strikeouts on four-seam fastballs.
As pointed out by MLB Dream in our FREE FTN Bets article, Jeffrey Springs has a 28% strikeout rate with his four-seam fastball, and the Angels lead the majors in strikeouts on that offering. He’s a pretty good bet to rack up a few strikeouts against an Angels team that ranks sixth in K% vs LHP. They also rank in the bottom three in wOBA and wRC+ against southpaws.
4. The Yankees rank dead last in wOBA over the last two weeks.
The Yankees have a league-low .255 wOBA and 65 wRC+ over the last 14 days. Their 27.9% strikeout rate over the last 14 days is the third highest in baseball behind Milwaukee and Detroit. Overall, New York ranks 14th in strikeout rate (22%), but it’s clear the Yanks are going through adversity for the first time this season. Only the Brewers have a worse average than New York’s .194 over the past 14 days. It won’t get any easier for them this evening, as Max Scherzer checks in with a 2.15 ERA and 134:20 K:BB ratio over 109 innings.
5. Milwaukee leads baseball in K% over the last 14 days.
Like the Yankees, the Brewers are struggling at the plate over the past couple of weeks. They are tied with Detroit in K% over the last two weeks (28.6%). Over that span, they’re last in average (.181), 27th in wOBA (.266) and 28th wRC+ (67). Milwaukee has the third-highest K rate against lefties (25.7%) and rank 25th in wOBA (.294). Julio Urías tossed five scoreless innings in Milwaukee last week, and it was the third time in his last five starts where he failed to allow a run. Urias has also allowed one or zero runs in five of his past six starts. Opponents are only slashing .200/.251/.376 against him at home where he has a 2.77 ERA.
6. Eric Lauer has coughed up the third-most home runs this season.
You don’t need me to tell you the Dodgers are a good stack at home against Eric Lauer, who has allowed 24 home runs. He surrendered two homers last week against Los Angeles and has allowed four in his past two starts. Even further, he’s allowed 16 in his past 12 starts. On top of that, he’s issued at least three walks in five of his past six starts and at least two walks in all six of those outings. Command issues, a 46.4% fly-ball rate (fourth highest) and 78% contact rate is not a recipe for success. A whopping 21 of the 24 home runs against Lauer have been to right-handed hitters, and he has a 4.48 ERA on the road compared to a 2.64 mark at home. Tonight may be a good night for the Dodgers to add to their home run totals.
7. Jeff McNeil and Francisco Lindor lead baseball in hits over the past month.
This is a weak stat to close out, but there are only eight games on the slate tonight. Jeff McNeil, who is set to bat in the sixth spot tonight, leads baseball in average over the last 30 days (.387). McNeil has 41 hits over that span, which is tied with his teammate Francisco Lindor, who has a .366 average over the last 30 days. McNeil only has three homers over the last month, but his 14 doubles rank first in the bigs. He has a solid 325/.374/.487 line against righties and Lindor does as well: .288/.365/.481. The Mets could make for a sneaky stack against Domingo Germán, who has allowed 31 hits and 14 earned runs in 28.1 innings this season.
