Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than any other sport. These are the seven stats I find most relevant to Monday’s slate.
1. Johnny Cueto has a 4.80 xFIP
Johnny Cueto has a 2.91 ERA, but his xFIP is nearly two runs higher. He’s due to regress after facing offenses like the Royals, Rangers and Athletics in his last three starts. He’ll face Houston at home here. Cueto has a 3.71 ERA and seven home runs allowed at home compared to a 2.12 ERA and four home runs allowed on the road. Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker each have ISOs above .200 against right-handed pitching and are where to start your Astros stacks with the wind blowing out 10 mph to right field tonight. Mauricio Dubón at $2,500 on DraftKings is a good value play to complete the stack.
2. Carlos Carrasco has a 4.41 ERA on the road
Carlos Carrasco has a 3.76 ERA, but his xFIP is higher at 4.04. His ERA is worse on the road, as is his .336 xOBA allowed compared to a .304 wOBA allowed at home. The Braves are fifth in all of baseball averaging 4.83 runs per game at home entering play Monday. Ronald Acuña Jr. had a knee issue but is expected to play tonight. Vaughn Grissom is still minimum-priced on DraftKings. Austin Riley, Matt Olson and Michael Harris have ISOs above .200 against right-handed pitching. Riley is hitting .314 with 17 home runs at home.
3. Madison Bumgarner has a 5.49 xFIP
Madison Bumgarner has a 4.88 ERA on the road compared to 3.65 at home. The Giants are 11th in all of baseball averaging 4.58 runs per game at home. Bumgarner has allowed a .199 ISO to right-handed hitters. Mike Yastrzemski and Thairo Estrada both have ISOs above .200 against left-handed pitching this season. J.D. Davis has a .176 ISO against left-handed pitching and is $2,800 on DraftKings while potentially batting fifth. Austin Slater has a .361 wOBA against left-handed pitching and is $3,700 on DraftKings while likely batting leadoff.
4. Gerrit Cole has a 3.05 ERA and .256 wOBA allowed at home
The Yankees are 3-9 in August and will look to their ace Gerrit Cole to get them back on track here. This should be a good matchup for Cole, who’s pitched better at home. He’s also faced the Rays twice already this season and allowed just one earned run in 13.1 innings while striking out 19. Tampa Bay likes to push their edge with the platoon advantage, but that would be a mistake against Cole, as he’s allowed a .247 wOBA to left-handed hitters compared to .304 wOBA against right-handed hitters. At $10,100 on DraftKings, Cole is your SP1 in cash games.
5. Julio Urías has a 1.09 ERA over his last five starts
Julio Urías will fly under the radar because the field won’t want to use a pitcher against the Brewers on the road. Milwaukee is ninth in all of baseball averaging 4.67 runs per game at home. Still, Urias has been dominant recently, even in tough matchups like facing the Rockies in Coors Field. He also has a 31:2 K/BB rate in his last five starts. At $9,600 on DraftKings, Urias is the pitcher I’m looking at when differentiating from lineups with Cole or Shohei Ohtani.
6. Joe Ryan has a 5.30 xFIP
Joe Ryan has allowed 16 earned runs in 14.2 innings over his last three starts. He’s also allowed a .200 ISO to right-handed hitters and .197 ISO to left-handed hitters. The Royals offense has more power than you think, as MJ Melendez, Salvador Perez, Vinnie Pasquantino and Nick Pratto all have ISOs above .195 against right-handed pitching. Vinnie P and Pratto are still near the minimum price on DraftKings, so I like Kansas City as a value stack tonight.
7. Ryan Yarbrough has allowed a .205 ISO to right-handed hitters
Aaron Judge has a .387 ISO against left-handed pitching and hasn’t hit a home run in a couple days. He’s due. If you’re playing Yordan Alvarez, you should be stacking the Astros. Judge, however, is my favorite true one-off on the slate. With 46 home runs and a .300 average, Judge is going for the American League MVP and potentially the record books. A hefty 25 of his home runs have come at home. There’s enough value on this slate to build around a big game from Judge in a good matchup.
