Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than in any other sport. These are the seven stats I find most relevant to today’s DFS slate.
1. 34.4%
Brayan Bello had a 34.4% K rate in 51 innings of AAA ball this season before a poor MLB debut against Tampa last week. His 2.62 xFIP from AAA masked a dangerous 10% BB rate, and it was that lack of command that killed him against Tampa. Bello should be popular once again, in which case he’s still viable. But if his poor start last week keeps ownership suppressed, then he’ll be a core play for me.
2. 52.9
The mighty Cardinals offense has struggled of late, posting a 52.9 wRC+ over the past week. They were shut out by both Zack Wheeler and Kyle Gibson in this series and now face Aaron Nola and his 2.99 baseline SIERA. The result is an almost five-point lead for Nola in projected DK points, according to the Strikeout Model.
3. -4% pts
Over the last month, Sean Manaea’s CSW has cratered to 24.3%, four percentage points below his baseline. Taking bad form into a start is never fun, but taking bad form into Coors Field is a nightmare. The Rockies are third in projected ISO and second in projected runs per 9 against the starter even before factoring in Manaea’s recent struggles, so hopefully his name value keeps their ownership down.
4. .223 & .208
Over the last month, the Cleveland bullpen has allowed a .223 ISO to righties and a .208 ISO to lefties. For context, this is basically José Ureña’s ISO allowed to each hand. That’s right – the Cleveland bullpen as a whole has allowed power the way Urena does for an entire month.
The White Sox have a low projected ISO against Cal Quantrill, but they’re fifth in projected runs per 9 against him, and if they get to him early, the homers can come with extended innings from the pen.
5. 8th & 2nd
The Texas Rangers are not a great offense. They’re 17th in wOBA and 17th in wRC+. However, they’re eighth in HRs and second in SBs. In other words, when they’re good, they’re good in ways that make them excellent for DK scoring. In fact, David Jones had a takedown with them just the other night:
Tonight, they’re fourth in projected ISO and third in projected runs per 9 against the starter, Adrian Martinez. Martinez carried a 4.88 xFIP in over 60 AAA innings this season, so there’s a decent chance he’s not ready for the big leagues just yet.
6. 22.1%
Spencer Howard was sent down to the minors after allowing over 8 HR/9 in his first couple starts of the 2022 season. He struck out over 30% of hitters in AAA, along with a .58 HR/9, so he was brought back up despite an extremely concerning 4.90 xFIP during that same time.
Well, his first start back was bad. He posted an atrocious 22.1% CSW while allowing six hits and two walks in four innings, along with just two strikeouts. Howard is so bad that Oakland actually projects for the third-highest ISO on the slate against the starter.
7. 49%
49% is the frequency with which José Ureña throws his sinker. It was effective in his last start, averaging a strong 96.1 mph against the Dodgers. The Padres will justifiably be the most popular offense tonight, but this sinker usage is concerning for them. Since the start of last season, only José Azocar and Luke Voit have gained runs against sinkers, and neither has gained a full run per 100 sinkers.
If you’re looking for a reason to fade the Padres beyond the variance of baseball (which worked out in the Dodger fade last start), it’s their pitch-mix matchup against Urena and his high-velocity sinker.
