Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome back from the All-Star break. Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than in any other sport. These are the seven stats I find most relevant to Friday’s DFS slate.
1. 10.1%
The highest barrel rate allowed by a starter on this slate belongs to José Urquidy, at 10.1%. Urquidy’s average exit velocity allowed and hard-hit rate allowed are also among the worst on the slate. What’s particularly of note for this matchup is Urquidy’s reverse-split tendency. In the past two calendar years, Urquidy is much worse vs righties:
Most of Seattle’s best hitters are righties, making this an incredibly intriguing spot. Julio Rodríguez and Kyle Lewis might be core plays for me.
2. 14.0%
Why is Kyle Lewis such a priority? His 14% barrel rate since the start of last year puts him right in the middle of Julio Rodríguez and Eugenio Suárez. His .329 wOBA and 114 wRC+ are also just below J-Rod’s .338 wOBA and 119 wRC+. He’s just $2,900 and should come with minuscule rostership.
3. 11.4%
Nathan Eovaldi has struggled immensely this season with dangerous contact. His 11.4% barrel rate is nearly double his 6.3% barrel rate from a season ago. Additionally, his HH rate has jumped from 36.2% to 46.2%. This type of contact has resulted in 2.11 HR/9 and now he has to face the Blue Jays.
This is as cheap as we’ve seen the Blue Jays on DraftKings, so we should look to take advantage.
4. 30.6%
In the last 30 days, the Angels have struck out an insane 30.6% of the time against right-handed pitching. Charlie Morton’s 28.7% K rate should play very well against the Angels and there’s a chance he’ll be overlooked with Max Scherzer, Corbin Burnes and Shohei Ohtani headlining the day.
5. 39%
What an exciting pitcher’s duel this Angels/Braves game could be, as Shohei Ohtani’s already strong 30.2% CSW has exploded to 39% over the last 30 days. The only knock on the Atlanta offense is their propensity to strikeout, so if Ohtani is on, he may actually have the highest ceiling on the slate, as suggested by the Strikeout Model’s ceiling probabilities and projected Ks.
6. 5.07
5.07 is the worst starter’s SIERA on the slate. Would you have guessed it belongs to Marco Gonzales? Well it does. Marco has been hit especially hard this year by lefties, allowing a .364 wOBA, .189 ISO and 5.18 xFIP. The best hitter in baseball, Yordan Alvarez, could carry this Astros offense to GPP glory.
7. 19.8%
Spencer Howard has improved box scores since his return to the majors, but don’t be fooled — his CSW in these three starts is an atrocious 19.8%, 5.7 percentage points below his baseline. Oakland is an excellent source of value-bats and can even be used as a primary stack if you want to double up on studs at pitcher.
