Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than any other sport. These are the five stats I find most relevant to Monday’s slate.
1. Carlos Rodón has a 32% K%
Carlos Rodón is the clear SP1 for me on this slate at $10,900 on DraftKings. He’s had a couple of easy matchups in his last two starts against the Tigers and Diamondbacks, but he came through in a big way each time, striking out 10 and 11 batters in those starts. Corbin Burnes, the other expensive option on this slate, hasn’t had a quality start in either of his last two starts. Burnes also hasn’t struck out 10 batters in a game in any of his five August starts. Burnes has the easier matchup today facing the Pirates compared to Rodon facing the Padres, but I still prefer Rodon because he’s performed significantly better in the recent sample.
2. José Suarez has a 3.58 ERA since the beginning of June
José Suarez is a really good SP2 value play for his price at $6,900 on DraftKings. The Yankees have power with Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton back, but Suarez has allowed only one home run in his last five starts. He’s completed at least five innings in five consecutive starts and struck out at least five batters in four consecutive starts. This is a thin pitching slate, which makes Suarez even more enticing at his price.
3. Madison Bumgarner has a 5.50 xFIP
The Phillies have been on fire at the plate lately, and Bryce Harper returned from injury. This team is loaded, but expensive, as Harper, Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto and Rhys Hoskins are all over $5,000 on DraftKings. Madison Bumgarner has allowed a .213 ISO to right-handed batters. Schwarber, Hoskins, Alec Bohm, Harper and Realmuto all have ISOs above .200 against left-handed pitching. Nick Castellanos is $4,300 and had a .308 ISO last season despite his struggles this season. Matt Vierling at $2,000 is your value play to make everything fit if you need it.
4. Chase Anderson had a 4.50 ERA at Triple-A
Chase Anderson had an ERA over 6.00 in the major leagues last year. This will be his first major league appearance this year, and he faces one of the best offenses in the league, the Cardinals. St. Louis has been on fire at home lately taking a series from the Braves over the weekend, but this is certainly a ballpark upgrade in terms of the hitting environment going to Cincinnati. Lars Nootbaar, Yadier Molina and Corey Dickerson are all priced at $3,000 or below on DraftKings and help you fit in Paul Goldschmidt, Tyler O’Neill and Nolan Arenado.
5. Miles Mikolas has a 4.34 xFIP and 18% K rate
I think there will be runs scored for both the Cardinals and the Reds here. Jake Fraley at $2,800 figures to be a somewhat popular one-off batting leadoff. Fraley has a .260 ISO against right-handed pitching and three stolen bases in 39 games. Jonathan India has a .177 ISO against right-handed pitching. Aristides Aquino, Colin Moran and T.J. Friedl have all shown some pop and are all minimum-priced or $2,100. Those are the guys who really make the Reds a good contrarian value stack.
