Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than in any other sport. These are the 10 stats I find most relevant to Thursday’s Opening Day main DFS slate.
1. Shane Bieber and Yu Darvish are projected for more than 5 more DK points than any other pitcher
We rarely see this kind of separation in the Pitcher Model. This makes me want to start with those two and differentiate with my hitters/stacks.
2. The Cardinals have the highest projected ISO (isolated power) on the slate
The Cardinal hitters are priced prohibitively, leading to low rostership throughout the stack. If I can find a way to pair them with the two stud pitchers, I’d love to.
3. JT Brubaker throws 25% sinkers, and his sinker gets crushed (-3.6 runs above average per 100 pitches — FanGraphs)
We can use this information to find the St. Louis hitters we want to prioritize. Specifically, we want to find hitters who perform significantly better against sinkers than traditional fastballs.
4. Harrison Bader adds 2.9 runs per 100 sinkers, loses 0.14 per 100 fastballs
Bader oozes event-upside with an ISO over .200 and SB potential. His issue is reaching safely to begin with — this makes him particularly sensitive to the matchup, so the pitch mix advantage he has over Brubaker is superb.
Dylan Carlson and Paul DeJong stand out for the same pitch mix advantage.
5. The Padres are third in Kyle Murray’s Home Run Rater and third in projected ISO against Madison Bumgarner
Bumgarner bounced back from a horrendous 2020 season, but he was still a shell of his old self a year ago. He’s especially vulnerable against righties — in 2020, his ISO allowed to righties was over .300. Even last year it was nearly .200.
6. Luke Voit adds over 5 runs per 100 cutters faced
Bumgarner throws 35% cutters. Luke Voit destroys them and is only $3,500. Core play? Core play.
7. Manny Machado went from a .391 wOBA in 2020 to a .350 wOBA in 2021, but his xwOBA (expected wOBA given his statcast data) only declined from .384 to .380
Machado is another Padre who hammers cutters (though not to the degree that Voit does). He’s going to be popular today, but if his 2021 numbers looked more in line with his expected numbers, he’d be well over $5k.
8. Arizona’s bullpen was dead last in SIERA in 2021 at 4.56
All signs point to San Diego Thursday, as even if Bumgarner is able to keep the ball in the park, once the Padres get to this bullpen, the floodgates could open.
9. The Nationals are second in projected ISO and sixth in the HR rater against Tylor Megill
Washington is just eighth in implied run total, so there’s a potential opportunity to get them at discounted rostership. Nelson Cruz is sixth in Kyle’s player rater but is projected for a single-digit roster percentage.
10. Victor Robles had 17 HRs and 28 SBs in 2019
Robles has been a massive disappointment in the last two seasons, but he still possesses the type of event-upside that is rare under $3k. Given his spot at the back of the order, he correlates well with Juan Soto and Nelson Cruz (9-2-3).
