Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We finally made it. Another offseason is in the books, and Spring Training action is finally back in full swing. As more and more spring training games are played, lineups, rotations, bullpens and additional storylines begin to take form. All of which impact the moves we make in the draft room.
Below, I’ll be focusing on five storylines that have major fantasy implications that everyone should be keeping an eye on.
2023 Fantasy Baseball Spring Training Storylines
Can Jordan Walker Make the Opening Day Roster?
After Corbin Carroll and Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Walker is the prospect who could make the biggest potential impact this season for fantasy purposes. Thanks to his elite raw power, solid hit tool/approach and sneaky-good speed, the 20-year-old former first-round pick dominated in Double-A last season to the tune of a .306/.388/.510 slash line with 31 doubles, 19 home runs and 22 steals in 536 plate appearances. A strong showing in the Arizona Fall League followed, with Walker cranking six doubles and five home runs in just 21 games with a .286/.367/.558 slash line.
St. Louis Cardinals hitters participating in the World Baseball Classic: Nolan Arenado, Tommy Edman, Paul Goldschmidt, Lars Nootbaar, Tyler O’Neill and other role players.
With so many notable St. Louis bats participating in the World Baseball Classic, Walker is going to receive a copious amount of playing time this spring. With his level of talent and opportunity this spring, Walker could conceivably force his way into the opening day lineup with an impressive performance in spring training. The upside with Walker is massive (think 95% of Julio Rodríguez), so it wouldn’t shock me to see him penciled into the opening day lineup March 30 against Toronto.
Walker is already off to a great start, putting his power and athleticism on full display so far with a 430-foot blast off of Johnny Cueto and showcasing elite sprint speed.
Will Andrew Painter Get a Rotation Spot to Start the Season?
If you had said to me 12 months ago that there was a realistic chance for Andrew Painter to make the Phillies rotation out of Spring Training in 2023, I would have thought you lost your damn mind. Why? Well, there’s usually a better chance of both Byron Buxton and Adalberto Mondesi playing a full 162 games than there is of a high school arm drafted 1.5 years ago of making his team’s big-league rotation out of Spring Training as a 19-year-old with a grand total of 109.2 minor league innings, only 28.1 at the Double-A level. But hey, that’s where we’re at with Painter who has a real possibility of breaking camp with Philadelphia given his elite stuff, elite 2022 performance, and the rumbling/rumors coming out of Philadelphia over the last couple of months.
As mentioned, Painter absolutely dominated in 2022 to the tune of a 1.56 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 38.7% strikeout rate across 103.2 innings. Not only can he miss bats at an elite clip thanks to an explosive fastball and trio of legit secondary offerings, but Painter has also shown plus or better command and control as well and limited his walk rate to an impressive 6.2% last season.
As it stands now, Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Taijuan Walker and Ranger Suárez occupy the 1-4 in the Phillies rotation, with Bailey Falter penciled into that No. 5 spot for now. No disrespect to Falter, but if Painter has a strong spring showing and the Phillies believe he’s ready to add value to their big-league rotation, he’ll steal that spot away from Falter in the blink of an eye.
For 2023, or in general, I hate to project anyone to be “the next Spencer Strider,” but if it were to happen, Painter could do it.
Lance McCullers Jr. Hurt… Hello, Hunter Brown
To the surprise of literally no one, Lance McCullers Jr. is already hurt. (Bonus points if you had his injury happening in February on your 2023 MLB bingo card.) McCullers felt soreness in his pitching elbow last week, the same elbow that cost him the first 4.5 months of the 2022 season. The Astros have already ruled McCullers out for the beginning of the season, and who knows how much longer after that he’ll be out. While this is disappointing to any of you who have McCullers shares already, this opens up a golden opportunity for Hunter Brown.
In 106 Triple-A innings last season, Brown posted a 2.55 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and a 31.5% strikeout rate. Those are impressive numbers anywhere, but especially so in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. With Brown’s ability to miss bats and induce groundballs, along with his minor league performance, there was already plenty of intrigue this season and the hype will only continue to grow now that he’s going to be in the rotation to open the season.
Keep this in mind in your drafts and completely ignore his ADP so far. In four NFBC DCs since the McCullers news came out, Brown’s ADP has already shot up to 184, and I’d bet a hefty sum of dough that his ADP will be inside the Top 150 for the month of March. If you want him on your teams, you’re going to have to pay up.
The Back End of Boston’s Rotation
Pitching depth is a positive for MLB squads. But it can also be a pain in the ass for us in the fantasy world. For an example of this, we need to look no further than the Boston Red Sox rotation. For a team that isn’t expected to do much this season, you’d think they’d be more willing to put their long-term rotation arms into the rotation and not *checks notes* 37-year-old Corey Kluber and the always-injured James Paxton.
In general, the Kluber move is fine, but adding him to the mix along with Paxton makes the back end of Boston’s rotation incredibly crowded. And this could mean that one of Garrett Whitlock or Brayan Bello are on the outside looking in when the Red Sox travel north to Boston in a month.
We already know Tanner Houck will be in a bullpen role, which diminishes his value for 2023, but the hope was that both Whitlock and Bello were going to be in the rotation with both serving as great value targets after the top 250. In NFBC Draft Champion drafts since Jan. 1, Whitlock and Bello have been going around pick 286 and 336, respectively. Both have the upside to cut their respective ADPs by half this season if given the chance to accrue enough innings.
In 2022, Whitlock pitched to the tune of a 3.45 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 4.8% walk rate and 26.4% strikeout rate across 78.1 innings, but only nine of his 31 appearances were starts. Whitlock has posted an xERA under 3.20 and a strikeout rate above 26% in each of his two MLB seasons thanks to his solid sinker/slider/changeup mix. His changeup has become one of the best in baseball already and Whitlock’s slider generated a 45.8% whiff rate with expected metrics much better than the surface metrics.
However, Whitlock is still working his way back late-season hip surgery and might not be ready for opening day per Alex Cora, who said this: “If he’s ready for Opening Day, he’s ready. But if he’s not, he’s not going to lose too much time.”
As for Bello, he already has one of the best changeups in baseball (.158 BAA, .158 SLG, .212 wOBA, 44.2% whiff), and pitched much better down the stretch with a 2.59 ERA over his final six starts. There’s certainly more upside in the strikeout department as well once he begins missing more bats with his above-average to plus slider.
Definitely keep an eye on Whitlock’s and the performance of these two during spring trainings. If they can eclipse 150 innings this season, both should return plenty of ROI at their respective ADPs.
Miguel Vargas Transitioning to Second Base
When a team shifts a player to a position that he has minimal experience at, that’s a telltale sign that they’re trying to get his bat in their lineup any way they can. In Los Angeles, that means moving Miguel Vargas to the keystone. Vargas has primarily played third base throughout his professional career, but does have some experience at second base, and is a good enough athlete to make the transition fulltime this season.
With everyday playing time on the horizon, Vargas’ intrigue this season grows exponentially. In his 410 minor league games, Vargas hit .313 with a .390 OBP, 10.5% walk rate and a 15.4% walk rate. Not only has Vargas proven to be one of the best pure hitting prospects in baseball, but the power stroke has finally showed up in 2021 and 2022. After posting a sub-.150 ISO in both 2018 and 2019, Vargas posted a .526 SLG and .207 ISO in 2021 followed by a .511 SLG and .207 ISO in 2022. And to add just a bit more value, Vargas is a sneaky source of speed as well, potentially flirting with double-digits annually early on in his career.
Many projection systems had Vargas in the vicinity of 450-470 plate appearances this season. However, if you extrapolate his projections out to 650 plate appearances, you’d have the following…
- THE BATX: .273/.331/.435, 84 R, 18 HR, 80 RBI, 9 SB
- ATC: .260/.324/.419, 81 R, 18 HR, 82 RBI, 11 SB
- Steamer: .259/.328/.413, 78 R, 18 HR, 73 RBI, 13 SB
- ZIPS: .265/.333/.424, 96 R, 19 HR, 88 RBI, 10 SB
And our own Vlad Sedler’s VDP projections extrapolated out to 650 plate appearances would look pretty damn tasty…
- .275 AVG, 90 R, 23 HR, 91 RBI, 6 SB
Will Vargas reach 650 plate appearances? Maybe not. But he definitely appears to be in line for close to that and could realistically flirt with an 80/20/80/10 season in 2023 along with a good AVG. On top of all of that, he’ll have eligibility at first base and second base in most leagues, which also means corner infield and middle infield as well. All of this at an ADP outside the top 250 is pure gold.
