Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Wednesday 9/14)

Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets today. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!

Today, Eric Pauly provides his picks. 

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals

Baltimore Orioles RL -1.5 +115 (Caesars Sportsbook)

Wednesday night, the Orioles and the Nationals face off for the fourth and final time this season. Baltimore bested the Nationals last night 4-3, and they lead the season series over Washington 2-1. 

While these two teams are close in proximity, their outlook for the rest of the season could not be further apart. Washington has the worst record in baseball and have begun a full rebuild of their roster. On the other hand, the Orioles are just five games out of an AL Wild Card spot. 

This game means a lot more to the Orioles than it does to the Nationals, but that does not mean Washington will just roll over. Both of these teams are just 4-6 in their last 10 games, so neither has any serious momentum. In fact, Washington is currently on a four-game losing streak. 

Lefty Patrick Corbin will make the start for Washington as they hope to break this losing streak and hurt the Orioles’ playoff hopes. To say Corbin’s 2022 campaign has been rough is an understatement. The veteran is 6-18 on the season with a 6.30 ERA, a 1.71 WHIP and a 4.98 FIP. 

Corbin pitched against the Orioles back on June 22 and allowed three runs on seven hits in just four innings in a Nationals loss. This has been the story for Corbin all season long. He has allowed an earned run in all but one of his 28 starts this season and he has allowed five or more runs in 10 starts this year. 

Fortunately for Corbin, and the Nationals, he has been much better at home this season. Corbin’s ERA at home is 4.94, he has a .477 slugging percentage against, a .281 batting average against, a 4.91 FIP, and a 1.51 WHIP. Make no mistake, his home splits and stats are still terrible, but you do not want to even see his road splits. 

Righty Tyler Wells will make the start for the Orioles in Washington. In 21 starts this year, Wells is 7-6 with a 3.91 ERA, a 4.41 FIP and a 1.13 WHIP. Wells faced the Nationals on June 22 (against Corbin) and allowed no runs on three hits in five innings of work. On the road this year, Wells has a 3.76 ERA, a .395 slugging percentage against, a 3.76 FIP, and a 1.04 WHIP. The Orioles are 5-1 straight up in his last six road starts and Baltimore would’ve covered -1.5 in four of those six starts. 

The Nationals’ offense has been hot to start off September, but now is the time they start to regress. The Orioles need this win badly, and they face Corbin tonight, a pitcher who has had one of the worst big-league seasons in a while. My numbers say the Orioles should be -110 on the run line, but they are +115, so I am backing the O’s here. 

Bet: BAL RL -1.5 +115 (Caesars Sportsbook)