Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to this Friday edition of MLB best bets at FTN! My betting strategy is different from what you may be accustomed to, especially if you’re a consistent follower of the superstar that is MLBDream. I’m not on the hunt for wins, I’m on the hunt for the largest edges possible. Typically, I find these in longshot bets. Hopefully some of you have been tailing along this PGA season, for example:
In baseball, my favorite type of prop bet is a K ladder, or simply alternate K lines. We’ve got one of those today…
Best MLB Bets for Friday
Shane Bieber 7+ K’s and/or Full Ladder
Shane Bieber’s line of over 5.5 K’s is the No. 1 prop in our MLB prop tool, but I like the alternate line of 7-plus even more. To be fair, I think this a full ladder opportunity, but let’s dive into why I prefer the 7-plus number.
Bieber has reached 6 K’s this year just two times, striking out 7 and 9 when doing so. However, dating back to last season, he has reached 6 K’s in 23 of 41 starts (56.1%). It’s therefore no surprise to see that both the Strikeout Model and FTN Data model (which powers the prop tool) find such an edge vs his implied probability of 50.5%. Again, however, he’s just 2-for-10 this season.
Meanwhile, he has reached or exceeded 7 K’s in 17 of his 41 starts (41.5%), vs an implied probability (at +230) 30.3%.
Basically, when Bieber has his strikeout stuff, he really has his strikeout stuff. If we’re betting on positive regression, as I think we should, we may as well skip the 6-plus number and go straight to 7-plus for more than double the odds.
Keep an eye on the bet tracker for more throughout the day, and I may add some PrizePicks (use promo code FTN when depositing) plays as the day progresses and they add more props. The season is going quite well, so consider using promo code PRO for 20% an FTNDaily subscription to make sure you’re in the Discord and getting all notifications of new plays in the tracker.
