Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We have a packed day of baseball Saturday for this holiday weekend. Many of the games start mid-afternoon, so make sure to head over to the FTN Bet Tracker and check out who our analysts are looking at.
I like the Yankees to win Saturday, and MLBDream agrees — he bet it early when the line was still -140. It has drifted up beyond the -150 mark for the moneyline, which is about the edge of where I think we still have value on it. Rather than play the Yankees moneyline, I found another way to play this game that I like even more. These teams have some of the biggest bats in the league, but the overall lineups for both are struggling. Both teams also have some solid pitching and that is what I want to concentrate on for our MLB best bet for Saturday.
Best MLB Bet Today
New York Yankees vs. San Diego Padres Under 8.5 Runs
This is a really solid pitching matchup. The Yankees are throwing Luis Severino, who is making only his second start of the season. He probably goes about 85 or 90 pitches but was very solid in giving up only one run on four hits and a walk in his 2023 debut. The Padres are throwing Michael Wacha. Wacha has also been surprisingly good lately. He has four starts in May, going at least six innings in each and giving up just one total run this month. Both guys are capable of shutting down the opposing offense. At the very least I expect both to limit the damage.
I know 8.5 does not seem high, but it is considering the hurlers on the mound. Both offenses do have some big-name bats. Despite those big bats, each team is below league average when it comes to their wRC+ scores in 2023. The Yankees rank 16th against RHP with a 99 wRC+ and the Padres are even worse at 20th, with a wRC+ of 92. Above-average pitching going up against league-average (or below) hitting is not the spot that screams big run totals. This is why the under makes a lot of sense to me today, especially at slightly reduced -105 juice on Caesars.
