2020 fantasy baseball fades and busts

As we head into the weirdest fantasy baseball season in our collective memory, one key draft practice is finding which players to avoid at their current draft price. The players mentioned below are being discussed due current NFBC ADP data we have for the 60-game season making it clear they are being overvalued, leaving little to no room for profit.

(NFBC ADP data from eight NFBC sprint – RotoWire Online Championship drafts)

Jesús Luzardo, SP, Oakland A’s

ADP 74, min. 52, max. 86

Talent and skill aren’t the reasons Luzardo is included in this space. It’s his egregious draft price, being selected in the fifth round of 15-team drafts. As of right now, we’re not quite sure of Luzardo’s role, or how many innings he will be allowed to throw this season. Anybody with volume concerns doesn’t belong inside the first five rounds of a draft, and this is Luzardo’s innings pitched per season:

2017: 43.2
2018: 109.2
2019: 55.0

The buyers are going to tell you, “Look, Luzardo pitched over 100 innings in 2018. He can do that in 2020 and win the AL Cy Young.” However, his current status is still pending, and there were rumblings that the A’s could potentially delay Luzardo due to service-time manipulation.

If you’re eager to select a starting pitcher with glitz and glamour, wait five or six rounds and nab Lance McCullers Jr.

Blake Snell, SP, Tampa Bay Rays

ADP 42, min. 37, max. 47

What is it about pitchers with elbow issues intriguing fantasy players? Snell had an elbow injury in mid-July last season that kept him out for two months. Then in March, he was pulled from the mound in a spring training game due to having zero control of his pitches, walking batter after batter in an unsettling outing. Investing high draft capital in a starting pitcher with durability concerns is living on the edge. Snell’s 2018 Cy Young season was followed up by another season with a strikeout rate above 30%, which is astonishing. However, none of that will matter if something is wrong with his elbow.

There are other options in the range Snell is being drafted, some with minimal injury risks. Luis Castillo, Patrick Corbin and Clayton Kershaw are all viable options, if you’re looking to invest in a starting pitcher that early in a draft. Better yet, target Lucas Giolito, Yu Darvish or Chris Paddack a round later. Just don’t waste your third-round pick on Snell in 2020. Let him prove he’s healthy.

Giancarlo Stanton/Aaron Judge, OF, New York Yankees

Stanton ADP: 66, min. 55, max. 83
Judge ADP: 71, min. 47, max. 109

Targeting hitters with a high strikeout rate will likely leave your 2020 fantasy baseball team stuck at the bottom of your league standings. Players with prior injury history, along with current ailments, can also drive your team off a cliff. Stanton’s 28.1% strikeout rate and Judge’s 31.6% rate make them hitters to avoid in the fifth and sixth rounds … especially when you start tacking on current injuries, which have plagued Judge in recent seasons. Current reports out of the Yankees camp suggest it is not 100% certain that Judge will be ready to start Opening Day. Meanwhile, Stanton is seemingly “healthy,” yet he has the same profile as the guy in Operation. Stanton’s list of injuries includes strains in his calf, quad and knee, while also suffering a biceps injury and dealing with shoulder pain. But go ahead, bet on him to be healthy now.

Even if Judge and Stanton are healthy and have their power back, they still carry volatility in a 60-game season, thanks to their extreme strikeout rates. The Yankees’ gargantuan duo could assume end up with stat lines similar to Franmil Reyes (103), Jorge Soler (108) and Kyle Schwarber (112), if healthy. Those players are being drafted 30-40 picks later, while projecting to put up similar numbers. So, are Judge and Stanton worth selecting early on? No thanks.