2020 fantasy baseball breakout picks

As we head into the weirdest fantasy baseball season in our collective memory, it’s worth looking at players due for a breakout, even on an abbreviated 60-game schedule. The players mentioned below are currently being overlooked when it comes to rankings or where they’re being drafted, leaving plenty of room for profit.

(NFBC ADP data from eight NFBC sprint – RotoWire Online Championship drafts)

Lance McCullers Jr., SP, Houston Astros

ADP 166, min. 156, max. 184

McCullers missed the entire 2019 season after having Tommy John surgery in November of 2018. His rehab was successfully completed last November, and reports out of camp over the weekend said McCullers had a solid three-inning simulation, facing eight hitters while allowing just two hits. Through four seasons, the range in innings pitched for McCullers is 81-128, with games started ranging from 14-22. Those range of outcomes positively correlate with this 60-game season.

Skills should be the least of your concerns when investing in McCullers, as he boasts a dominant 12.0% swinging strike rate that hit 13.5% in 2018 prior to injury. His curveball is already known for being nasty, but his changeup is also lethal with his spin rate grading out in the 90th percentile along with an 86th percentile whiff rate.

Drafting McCullers in the 10th or 11th round in a 15-team league will look like a no-brainer when looking back come 2021. This time next year McCullers will be the Astros’ ace.

Ken Giles, RP, Toronto Blue Jays

ADP 100, min. 86, max. 115

As of now, Giles is currently being selected as the 10th closer off the board. So why is he in the breakout section? Well, what if he finishes inside the top-five … or better yet, what if Giles finishes as the No. 1 closer this season? Both scenarios are viable in 2020.

Giles comes into this season with an elite 25.8% K-BB% for his career that topped out last season at 31.7%. He’s still in the prime of his career with his fastball velocity in the 94th percentile. A career 0.67 HR/9 and the fact that the Blue Jays don’t have any competition to force a short leash on Giles should have you confident in him retaining the role the entire season. The Blue Jays are projected to be more competitive this season and with the shortened season it allows for more parity, leaving teams less likely to trade away assets.

Of the nine relievers being selected ahead of Giles, there are only three closers who grade out higher — Aroldis Chapman, Kirby Yates and Josh Hader.

Jorge Polanco, SS, Minnesota Twins

ADP 176, min. 158, max. 189

The sky's the limit for Polanco, yet the draft market would disagree with that, as he’s currently being drafted in the 11th or 12th round in 15-team leagues. Last season we saw a career-high hard-hit rate (39.5%) that was paired with a vastly improved launch angle (17.9). His solid plate discipline has provided a career walk rate over 16%, which has Twins’ manager Rocco Baldelli confident in slotting Polanco into the two-hole. Not a bad place to be with the amount of talent that Minnesota has on offense. He is also an extra base machine, finishing 2019 inside the top-five in the AL for doubles and triples.

Producing a high volume of runs while not being a batting average liability are two traits that will carry into any season. Polanco recently turned 27 with plenty of capability (28.2 sprint speed) of chipping in a few stolen bases. His total of 22 home runs was good for 11th at the shortstop position and while projected to hit second the Twins lineup is truly powerful, likely providing an ample amount of RBI opportunities. Polanco’s 79 RBIs last season was the ninth-highest out of all shortstops. His volume, consistency and team context all point toward a massive season where he finishes inside the top-10 at the shortstop position.

Starlin Castro, 2B, Washington Nationals

ADP 262, min. 222, max. 285

Leaving the Miami Marlins organization, lineup and ballpark are immediate upgrades for Castro. He now should be inserted into the middle of a thick Nationals lineup, hitting behind Juan Soto. His second half of 2019 was jarring with a .256 ISO, .365 wOBA and 43.4% hard-hit rate. Castro attributed his success to a bat change but there must have been a minor adjustment made along the way. 16 of his 22 home runs were registered in the second half with 14 of those occurring in the months of August and September. During August and September Castro owned a .284 ISO and 140 wRC+.

Being selected outside of the top-200 is an error in the draft market. Correct this error by securing Castro in the 15th or 16th round. There are only 30 starting second basemen in baseball, and Castro is being selected as the 24th on average. Take advantage of the mispriced evaluation.