Alex Blickle's Articles

Ownership Projections evolve throughout the week in a specific way. They begin as a reflection of how people view plays in a vacuum, slowly but surely progressing into a combination of how people view players and how certain player combinations fit into various lineup constructions.  The goal of this Thursday article is to: Take a […]

In this article, I’ll use the Strikeout Model to sift through the pitching options on DraftKings. We’ll discuss the threshold probabilities and how they combine with projected ownership to allow us to consistently make +EV decisions at the starting pitcher position. Two MLB slates, Thursday Night Football and one day before the Ryder Cup begins. What […]

In this article, I’ll use the Strikeout Model to sift through the pitching options on DraftKings. We’ll discuss the threshold probabilities and how they combine with projected ownership to allow us to consistently make +EV decisions at the starting pitcher position. We have a great 11-game slate tonight with a lot of key decision points. […]

Each week through the NFL season, I’ll review my single-entry DFS lineup, as well as a couple others. I will also track success rates throughout the season. The criteria for the other lineups to make the article (and tracking) will be over 10% of my overall investment. This week, that includes: Single-entry lineup Afternoon-only lineup […]

The goal of this article is to use ownership to find paths to GPP success for the Monday night DFS showdown slate in Week 2 through the use of standard correlation and correlated leverage. I will be heavily referencing Derek Brown’s article, as well — the man is sharp! First, a snapshot of the current ownership projections:   […]

n this article, I’ll use the Strikeout Model to sift through the pitching options on DraftKings. We’ll discuss the threshold probabilities and how they combine with projected ownership to allow us to consistently make +EV decisions at the starting pitcher position. It’s a shame that DraftKings has provided such underwhelming contests for MLB Sundays since […]

In this article, I’ll use the Strikeout Model to sift through the pitching options on DraftKings. We’ll discuss the threshold probabilities and how they combine with projected ownership to allow us to consistently make +EV decisions at the starting pitcher position. A full Saturday of baseball is the perfect way to go into NFL Sunday. Let’s […]

GPPs are a game of probability. We can think of the chance of our lineup “hitting” as the chance of all of our individual plays hitting. This is why we stack – by adding correlation, we increase the probability of a group of players hitting at the same time. A great analogy is to think […]

NFL DFS ownership projections evolve throughout the week in a specific way. They begin as a reflection of how people view plays in a vacuum, slowly but surely progressing into a combination of how people view players and how certain player combinations fit into various lineup constructions.  The goal of this Thursday article is to: […]

In this article, I’ll use the Strikeout Model to sift through the pitching options on DraftKings. We’ll discuss the threshold probabilities and how they combine with projected ownership to allow us to consistently make +EV decisions at the starting pitcher position. What a day. PGA is back, we have two MLB slates, and Thursday Night Football. […]

We’re back for the Fortinet Championship at the Silverado Resort & Spa. Regardless of the event, PGA DFS is all about weighing the risk and reward of players in relation to their ownership projections. Often, you have to feel like you’re on an island when it comes to your viewpoint of a play in order […]

In this article, I’ll use the Strikeout Model to sift through the pitching options on DraftKings. We’ll discuss the threshold probabilities and how they combine with projected ownership to allow us to consistently make +EV decisions at the starting pitcher position. Pitchers to play Gerrit Cole & Lucas Giolito At 24 and 23.6 projected DK […]

Golf is the only sport where the “arena” in which it is played changes dramatically from one event to another. Consequently, each tournament provides its own unique challenge, which emphasizes certain areas of the game more than others. At this point, you’ll want to familiarize yourself with the strokes gained statistics, if you haven’t already. These […]

Each week through the NFL season, I’ll review my single-entry lineup, as well as a couple others. I will also track success rates throughout the season. The criteria for the other lineups to make the article (and tracking) will be over 10% of my overall investment. This week, that includes: Single-entry lineup A secondary main […]

The goal of this article is to use ownership to find paths to GPP success for the Monday night DFS showdown slate in Week 1 through the use of standard correlation and correlated leverage. I will be heavily referencing Derek Brown’s article, as well — the man is sharp! First, a snapshot of the current ownership projections: Decision […]

In this article, I’ll use the Strikeout Model to sift through the pitching options on DraftKings. We’ll discuss the threshold probabilities and how they combine with projected ownership to allow us to consistently make +EV decisions at the starting pitcher position. DraftKings really made sure the NFL steals the show today by giving us some […]

In this article, I’ll use the Strikeout Model to sift through the pitching options on DraftKings. We’ll discuss the threshold probabilities and how they combine with projected ownership to allow us to consistently make +EV decisions at the starting pitcher position. We’ve got a great two-slater Saturday. First, a Phillies game I’ll never forget… Pitchers to play […]

GPPs are a game of probability. We can think of the chance of our lineup “hitting” as the chance of all of our individual plays hitting. This is why we stack – by adding correlation, we increase the probability of a group of players hitting at the same time. A great analogy is to think […]

Ownership projections evolve throughout the week in a specific way. They begin as a reflection of how people view plays in a vacuum, slowly but surely progressing into a combination of how people view players and how certain player combinations fit into various lineup constructions. The goal of this Thursday article is to: Take a […]

In this article, I’ll use the Strikeout Model to sift through the pitching options on DraftKings. We’ll discuss the threshold probabilities and how they combine with projected ownership to allow us to consistently make +EV decisions at the starting pitcher position. With NFL showdown on tap tonight, MLB is getting morning attention – consequently, ownership discussion […]

In this article, I’ll use the Strikeout Model to sift through the pitching options on DraftKings. We’ll discuss the threshold probabilities and how they combine with projected ownership to allow us to consistently make +EV decisions at the starting pitcher position. Pitchers to play Sonny Gray, Cincinnati Reds, and/or Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies Let’s take a […]

In this article, I’ll use the Strikeout Model to sift through the pitching options on DraftKings. We’ll discuss the threshold probabilities and how they combine with projected ownership to allow us to consistently make +EV decisions at the starting pitcher position. Pitchers to play Corbin Burnes There are a number of solid options on this […]

In this article, I’ll use the Strikeout Model to sift through the pitching options on DraftKings. We’ll discuss the threshold probabilities and how they combine with projected ownership to allow us to consistently make +EV decisions at the starting pitcher position. It’s a double slate Saturday. For the first time, I will attempt to highlight both […]

In this article, I’ll use the Strikeout Model to sift through the pitching options on DraftKings. We’ll discuss the threshold probabilities and how they combine with projected ownership to allow us to consistently make +EV decisions at the starting pitcher position. Pitchers to play Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels Ohtani checks every single box: 1st […]

In this article, I’ll use the Strikeout Model to sift through the pitching options on DraftKings. We’ll discuss the threshold probabilities and how they combine with projected ownership to allow us to consistently make +EV decisions at the starting pitcher position. Pitchers to play Triston McKenzie, Cleveland Guardians Triston McKenzie is coming into Thursday’s game on […]

We’ve made it to East Lake and the Tour Championship Regardless of the event, PGA DFS is all about weighing the risk and reward of players in relation to their ownership projections. Often, you have to feel like you’re on an island when it comes to your viewpoint of a play in order to be […]

Golf is the only sport where the “arena” in which it is played changes dramatically from one event to another. Consequently, each tournament provides its own unique challenge, which emphasizes certain areas of the game more than others. At this point, you’ll want to familiarize yourself with the strokes gained statistics, if you haven’t already. […]

In this article, I’ll use the Strikeout Model to sift through the pitching options on DraftKings. We’ll discuss the threshold probabilities and how they combine with projected ownership to allow us to consistently make +EV decisions at the starting pitcher position. Pitchers to play Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee BrewersRobbie Ray, Toronto Blue Jays When comparing the three […]

In this article, I’ll use the Strikeout Model to sift through the pitching options on DraftKings. We’ll discuss the threshold probabilities and how they combine with projected ownership to allow us to consistently make +EV decisions at the starting pitcher position. Pitchers to play Ranger Suárez I always try to order the pitchers I write […]

 In this article, I’ll use the Strikeout Model to sift through the pitching options on DraftKings. We’ll discuss the threshold probabilities and how they combine with projected ownership to allow us to consistently make +EV decisions at the starting pitcher position. Pitchers to play Lance Lynn, Chicago White Sox Lynn dominates the projections today, as […]

In this article, I’ll use the Strikeout Model to sift through the pitching options on DraftKings. We’ll discuss the threshold probabilities and how they combine with projected ownership to allow us to consistently make +EV decisions at the starting pitcher position. We have a massive slate with numerous pay-up options, all of whom are viable. […]

In this article, I’ll use the Strikeout Model to sift through the pitching options on DraftKings for Thursday. We’ll discuss the threshold probabilities and how they combine with projected ownership to allow us to consistently make +EV decisions at the starting pitcher position. Aces are wild on Thursday’s nine-game DFS slate, but there’s a really intriguing […]