Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The Big 12 is entering 2021 with a solid group of competitors for the first time in several years. Texas isn’t back yet, but Oklahoma has a true rival emerging. The Iowa State Cyclones are a preseason top-six team and have a real shot at upsetting the powerhouse Sooners.
(Follow along with our entire college football conference betting preview series here.)
The Cyclones continue to build under head coach Matt Campbell. Their 9-3 2020 season was better than their record suggests, and the arrow is pointing upward. With a weakened field across the country, can the Cyclones force their way into the College Football Playoff?
We’re continuing to preview the top teams across the country as opening weekend approaches. As always, we’re on the lookout for the top futures and picks in our projections. Let’s dive into the best plays for the Iowa State Cyclones in 2021.
(Get an All Access pass to FTN NFL coverage across all sites for $349.99.)
Iowa State Cyclones regular season wins
(O/U 9, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Honestly, I think this is the easiest team win total bet I’ve seen all offseason. The Cyclones were already a solid team last year and everything in their profile points toward being closer to an 11-win team, not a nine-win one. We can get tremendous value here.
On the surface, everything starts with the offense for good reason. Senior quarterback Brock Purdy and junior tailback Breece Hall are viable Heisman Trophy candidates who will cannibalize each other’s odds. And they’re joined by a premier tight end in Charlie Kolar.
Purdy has become the orchestrator of one of the most efficient passing games in the country thanks to high-level decision-making and great accuracy on short and intermediate attempts. His game isn’t sexy, but he’s averaged an absurdly good completion rate of 66.1% over the course of his career despite his receiving corps fluctuating. Kolar and returning top-receiver Xavier Hutchinson are impactful pass-catchers but they don’t compare to the upside that Hakeem Butler brought. Another positive, though, is big-play threat Tarique Milton is back in the fold to help stretch the field vertically.
Hall is the true star of the bunch. His sophomore campaign landed him sixth in the nation in the Heisman vote as he tallied 1,752 yards and 23 scores on 302 carries. You can bet he’ll be in the mix again if the Cyclones do as well as I expect.
The defense is truly the key to their upside, though. An amazing 88% of this team’s total production is back from last year, including 14 of their top 19 defenders with 100-plus snaps. Just one underclassman is starting, and the unit should be the best in the conference.
The nation’s top linebacking corps resides in Ames, Iowa. Mike Rose is one of the uber-productive second-level defenders in the country. And he’s surrounded by a ridiculous amount of experience.
Their two top sack-artists are back, and star safety Greg Eisworth leads the secondary. This unit is loaded, and good enough to carry them to a top-10 ranking on their own.
Our pick: Over 9 (-130, DraftKings Sportsbook)
(Get an All Access pass to FTN NFL coverage across all sites for $349.99.)
Iowa State Cyclones to win the Big 12
(+290, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Oklahoma is a terrific team again in 2021, but our job is to find the best value. I love the Iowa State profile for all the reasons listed above. They have a strong analytical argument for being the favorite in the Big 12.
The key to their season is surviving the final six weeks. Oklahoma State, Texas, Oklahoma and TCU are featured games without a single bye week. That’s a gauntlet capable of leaving them vulnerable and dropping a game unexpectedly.
At almost 3-to-1 return, I have to take the Cyclones to win the Big 12. They’re a better value than Georgia is in the SEC but have an easier pathway t
Our pick: Yes to win (+290, DraftKings Sportsbook)
