The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (8/18)

Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a look.

All betting lines and information are from the FanDuel Sportsbook. 

Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees betting breakdown

Red Sox (+104), Yankees (-122)
Total: 10.0 runs
Nick Pivetta (R) vs. Andrew Heaney (L)

Three things to know

• Boston has been surging recently – their .343 wOBA and .197 ISO is at the top of the league.
• The Yankees need to wake up at the plate – their .163 ISO and 24.6% whiff rate are ugly.
• Andrew Heaney and Yankee Stadium is a match made in hell. Heaney was bombed again last start for seven earned, and he’s allowed for earned runs or more in six of nine starts.

Best bets: This is an OVER bet all the way. These arms are in total struggle mode.

Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins betting breakdown

Braves (-240), Marlins (+190)
Total: 8.0 runs
Charlie Morton (R) vs. Jesús Luzardo (L)

Three things to know

• Charlie Morton has saved this Braves staff – in the last month, he’s posted a 2.79 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over the last 29 innings.
• The Braves are better at the plate – they’ve got a .333 wOBA in the last month.
• The Marlins stink – they have a .312 wOBA and a 24.9% whiff rate.

Best bets: I think the Braves are a must play here – a same-game parlay makes a ton of sense.

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Los Angeles Angels at Detroit Tigers betting breakdown

Angels (-134), Tigers(+114)
Total: 8.0 runs
Shohei Ohtani (R) vs. Tarik Skubal (L)

Three things to know

• The Angels have really been struggling at the plate – their .285 WOBA and .130 ISO have been awful.
• Shohei Ohtani has to be the MVP, right? Over his last 25 innings, the dude has an impressive 1.44 ERA and 0.76 WHIP.
• Detroit has vacillated between good and bad at the plate – and they are improving right now, logging a .185 ISO and .328 wOBA.

Best bets: This screams F3/F5 bet on the Angels – plenty of value here.

Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals betting breakdown

Brewers (-124), Cardinals (+106)
Total: 7.0 runs
Freddy Peralta (R) vs. Jack Flaherty (R)

Three things to know

• Milwaukee has been improving at the plate recently – the Brewers’ strikeout rate in the last month is under 20%.
• The mega arms just keep rolling out for the Brewers – this time, it’s Freddy Peralta.
• The Cardinals have a 23.4% strikeout rate and a .180 ISO in the last month.

Best bets: The UNDER. Flaherty is brilliant and the Cards stink offensively.

Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers betting breakdown

Mariners (-176), Rangers (+148)
Total: 9.0 runs
Marco Gonzales (L) vs. Mike Foltynewicz (R)

Three things to know

• What happened to the Rangers offensively? Their .244 wOBA in the last month is awful.
• A .310 wOBA for the Mariners isn’t anything crazy, but it’s a big improvement over their last stretch.
• Don’t expect a ton of homers here – the .158 ISO mark for the Mariners and .128 ISO mark for the Rangers is pathetic.

Best bets: Marco Gonzales has been really good as of late – I like the UNDER here.

Oakland Athletics at Chicago White Sox betting breakdown

Athletics (+168), White Sox (-200)
Total: 8.5 runs
Cole Irvin (L) vs. Lance Lynn (R)

Three things to know

• The White Sox are straight fire at the dish – their .203 ISO in the last 30 days is fifthbest in baseball.
• The A’s aren’t exactly crushing the ball (.157 ISO), but they do have a solid .327 wOBA.
• Could Lance Lynn win the Cy Young? His sub-2.00 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP have been spicy.

Best bets: This game is a toss-up due to two great teams, but go with the White Sox and the better pitcher.

Houston Astros at Kansas City Royals betting breakdown

Astros (-198), Royals (+166)
Total: 9.5 runs
Zack Greinke (R) vs. Brady Singer (R)

Three things to know

• Brady Singer was rocked in his return – he only generated five swings and misses in his last start.
• Kansas City doesn’t whiff a ton (21.9%), but their .295 WOBA in the last month has stunk.
• The Astros have heated back up at the dish – their .327 wOBA in the last month has them at 11th in the league.

Best bets: Find your favorite home run prop on the Astros. Singer stinks.

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Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks betting breakdown

Phillies (-146), Diamondbacks (+124)
Total: 9.5 runs
Ranger Suárez (L) vs. Humberto Castellanos (R)

Three things to know

• The Phillies are getting hot at the right time – they have a 10.7% walk rate and .327 wOBA in the last month.
• The Diamondbacks are the opposite – they have logged a .163 ISO with a 23.9% strikeout rate.
• This is a bullpen game for both sides – who can come out on top?

Best bets: The Snakes are a bad team – take a F3/F5 bet here on the Phillies.

(Get all my MLB betting picks here)

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