Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The college football season is finally almost upon us. Just a few weeks remain until opening kickoff happens. This is the best chance for bettors to land odds with great value attached to them.
We’re breaking down each college football division for you to unearth the best plays. The SEC West will be an entertaining race featuring tough competition. Alabama is highly favored to win it, but there’s plenty of value for backup plans.
(Follow along with our entire college football conference betting preview series here.)
Each program has a unique roster and play style that makes this a fun divisional race. From Alabama to Arkansas, let’s dive in and preview each team’s season outlook.
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Alabama Crimson Tide division winner odds
(-425, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Want to see privilege in college football? Alabama is the definition of it. They’ve replaced a group of first-round NFL talents from one of the greatest offensive teams in college football’s history with a bunch of 5-star guys who are favored to win the SEC West.
The offense is going to be fast and explosive even as Bryce Young gets his bearings. Receivers John Metchie and Jameson Williams give a similar presence as Henry Ruggs and Jaylen Waddle. And running back Brian Robinson Jr. will lead a pack of hungry, dangerous ball carriers.
The defense has a solid 77% of production returning, and added star linebacker Henry To’o To’o from Tennessee. I expect to see more young guys getting reps than last year because there’s a lack of playmakers on the unit, but the core of the defense will keep the Tide at the top of the SEC yet another year.
Texas A&M Aggies division winner odds
(+600, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The SEC West race may come down to whether Jimbo Fisher can get his new quarterback up to speed with the rest of his roster. The Aggies have a deep defense that was fantastic in 2020. But the offense, even under senior Kellen Mond, came up just short in big games.
The 2021 Aggies are built in the same fashion. The defense boasts stars DeMarvin Leal, Aaron Hansford, and Leon O’Neal. Teams will struggle to spread the field against this fast and versatile bunch and extend drives.
The offense has a huge question mark at quarterback, though. Whichever passer from Zach Calzada, Haynes King and Eli Stowers has the nation’s best running back corps behind him and a plus offensive line. Are you willing to bet on Fisher’s passing attack or look elsewhere for your longshot bet? I’m not taking Fisher.
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LSU Tigers division winner odds
(+1000, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The best longshot bet within the SEC West is the LSU Tigers even after learning about quarterback Myles Brennan’s broken non-throwing arm. The Tigers have a ton of returning starters compared to most of their peers and Brennan was actually quite good in 2020 until injuries stunted the unit. There’s enough playmaking and experience now on the unit to hold their own until Brennan returns from his latest injury.
The defense is loaded with talent and veteran savvy. They allowed far too many big plays as a bunch of veterans had departed the year prior. But in typical LSU fashion, the defense improved with experience and should be an asset in 2021.
Does LSU have a great chance of winning over Alabama? No, but at these odds, it’s not unreasonable to believe Alabama could drop two games with their youth and LSU edges them out because they reach their ceiling.
Ole Miss Rebels division winner odds
(+1500, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Look no further if you want the most entertaining SEC West team. Lane Kiffin has a dynamic group of playmakers back in the fold for 2021. I’d argue they have the best quarterback-running back duo in the conference with Matt Corral and Jerrion Ealy.
Losing Elijah Moore to the NFL is a tough blow but Ole Miss churns out productive receivers with ease. Instead, their success depends on the defense. And that gets sticky quickly unless you believe a team that fits better in the Big 12 can win in the SEC West.
The defense is praying experience will help improve a unit that allowed 68% completion rate for 312 passing yards, and 207 rushing yards per-game on 5.3-yard average. With 83% of the defense back, there’s some hope, but not enough overall talent to predict a takeover of the conference by Kiffin.
Auburn Tigers division winner odds
(+1600, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Gus Malzahn era is finally over, but will that bring more consistent results? New head coach Bryan Harsin will surely ride his talented backfield to a winning record, as Tank Bigsby is awesome, and the duo of Shaun Shivers and Jarquez Hunter are studs too. The issue is he’s working with a severely limited passer in Bo Nix and an unheralded group of receivers.
Maybe it’ll matter less because the entire offensive line is filled with seniors and the backs are that good. Harsin will need the best out of his mercurial defense, though. They allowed average production across the board in 2020 and that’s not good enough to win with unless the offense is spectacular.
Mississippi State division winner odds
(+5000, DraftKings Sportsbook)
I love Mike Leach. The zany coach is a legend for many reasons. Leach hasn’t proved himself as an SEC coach yet, though, and 2021 is a tough year for him to break through as he’s overhauling a large chunk of the offense.
Quarterback Will Rogers should continue his growth in Year 2 if he beats out two grad transfers, and three of their top receivers are back. Leach has a fairly productive run game to rely on as well, so hopefully he leans into it more this season as well.
The defense will again be the calling card of the roster. Leach quietly does a great job of fielding quality units and having strong coordinators. His offense, though, must cut down on the turnovers and find bigger plays more often to clear the low threshold oddsmakers have given to them.
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Arkansas Razorbacks division winner odds
(+6000, DraftKings Sportsbook)
All things considered, the Arkansas Razorbacks were a nice surprise in 2020. The offense was actually good with Feleipe Franks running it with playmakers Trelon Smith and Treylon Burks. Franks is gone, though, and now the two playmakers must assist new starter K.J. Jefferson in his acclimation period.
The defense, like much of the conference, is an issue and must prove themselves on the field. Despite being a group of fairly experienced talents, they ranked amongst the bottom units in the SEC. Can the growing pains of a still fairly young secondary be mitigated better?
Either way, Arkansas has no chance of winning the SEC West, but they’re trying to get to .500.
