Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The 2021 college football season is finally here as the end of August nears. Opening weekend is quickly approaching and we have a full slate of games every weekend until the end of the year. Plan for each Saturday accordingly.
Although there’s a heavy favorite with the Georgia Bulldogs looming large, there’s real competition that can challenge them. This division will bring a lot of fun and value for bettors this fall. We must act now to get the best plays possible.
(Follow along with our entire college football conference betting preview series here.)
We’ll look at that and more for each SEC East contender. From Georgia to Vanderbilt, let’s breakdown each SEC East team and project how their season will play out.
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Georgia Bulldogs division winner odds
(-450, DraftKings Sportsbook)
There are two different discussions regarding the Georgia Bulldogs. One revolves around their ability to compete for a national title, and the answer will depend on how the quarterback performs. The other is an easier one, and it’s whether they can win the SEC East regardless of quarterback play.
Incumbent J.T. Daniels will ultimately determine the upside to this well-stocked Bulldogs team. They can win the SEC East without elite play from him like what he showed last year. But more is needed for them to win on a grander scale.
The Bulldogs are justifiably huge favorites because their structure is more sound than their competition. Most of their offense is back, and although they’re replacing almost all their defense, they have a rich set of recruits to replenish with. I wouldn’t bet on Georgia because of the poor value for a team with such a young defense, but that’s also because we’re hunting value.
Florida Gators division winner odds
(+400, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Florida Gators are the best value play in the SEC East. No longshot has the overall playmaking pipeline to threaten Georgia except the Gators, even if they’re replacing a whopping 45% of their 2020 production. Head coach Dan Mullen has his work cut out for him but also has his own set of recruits to fulfill his vision for the roster.
Quarterback Emory Jones must step up in his junior season. Gone are a plethora of NFL-ready playmakers, and now there’s a group of touted but unproven unknowns. The unit will only go as far as the offense can produce.
The defense has a couple of studs to revamp around. Defensive end Brenton Cox Jr. and corner Kaiir Elam are All-SEC caliber. A primary pass-rusher must emerge for the unit to be as good as it can be.
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Missouri Tigers division winner odds
(+1600, DraftKings Sportsbook)
One of the strange outcomes from the pandemic year was the slew of transfers that flooded schools across the country. The profile of Missouri without transfers is relatively weak; their offense lacked punch in 2020 and then lost star running back Larry Roundtree to the NFL, and the defense hemorrhaged yards at an unsustainable rate. But their influx of transfers should help bridge some of those gaps.
Head coach Ed Drinkwitz will have too much to overcome to win the SEC East, but the Tigers appear to be a potential surprise. Although the offense struggled to create big plays outside of Rountree’s contributions, the unit was consistently efficient. That’s more than what several others can say.
The defense has two starting transfer corners and two more starting defensive linemen. The jump in competition for all four players remains to be seen but I like the upside over what we’d normally see from underclassmen.
Kentucky Wildcats division winner odds
(+1800, DraftKings Sportsbook)
A dominant rushing team with virtually zero passing upside, the Wildcats must drastically change their approach in 2021 to avoid blowouts against better teams. The quarterback battle between Joey Gatewood, Beau Allen and Will Levis is uninspiring but determines the direction of the unit. Last year’s iteration with Terry Wilson was simply too limited.
My model is pessimistic. Kentucky lost 40% of all 2020 production and was hit especially hard on defense. Mark Stoops has a roster full of seniors, but the development within the program has been slow.
Tennessee Volunteers Division Winner Odds
(+2200, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Check out our deep dive into the betting outlook for the Tennessee Volunteers in 2021.
Besides Florida, Tennessee is the most interesting longshot. The roster has been overhauled with transfers, including two additions at quarterback and beefing up their playmakers. The defense is much more experienced and has the size required to compete in the SEC East.
New head coach Josh Heupel has a big learning curve, of course. Getting a swath of incoming talent is more difficult to manage than incumbents because the speed of the conference is challenging. So although the Volunteers have a higher floor than what their circumstances may suggest, their ceiling is still capped.
South Carolina Gamecocks division winner odds
(+8000, DraftKings Sportsbook)
There’s not much to like about the Gamecocks’ odds of even hitting their four-win total in 2021. Only four teams lost more production from 2020, and there’s little for new head coach Shane Beamer to work with. This will be a rough transition year as Beamer tries to find his groove with a bunch of players he inherited.
Dramatic improvements are needed all-around and on both sides of the ball. The offense must be more explosive and consistent since the passing game was abysmal. The defense was among the very worst in the country. South Carolina won’t be in contention for the SEC East for at least three years.
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Vanderbilt Commodores division winner odds
(+20000, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The quick downturn of Vandy led to a regime change, and now this is Clark Lea’s mess to clean up. Vandy was horrible last year, failing to win a game at all. The offense somehow averaged just three yards a carry, and the defense gave up an insane 73.4% completion rate and 5.7 yards per-carry.
Not much has changed since last year besides the coaching swap. Two transfers won’t dramatically alter the outlook of the team in 2021. They’re the biggest longshot of any Power 5 team for good reason.
