Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The college football landscape changed after the pandemic dramatically altered the 2020 season. The Alabama Crimson Tide stomped through a tough schedule while Ohio State and Clemson further cemented their status as blueblood programs. Everyone else is simply chasing the top three.
The 2021 college football season could bring significant change. Each of the top programs lost a large part of last year’s roster and their identities will change along with their personnel. This opens an opportunity for the second tier of contenders to upset the big favorites because they have an established identity and continuity to rely on.
Here are five key players across the college football nation who will have a major say in how the 2021 season plays out. These five players are far from the only influential talents, but you must watch each of them this year.
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C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
(Check out our Big Ten betting preview.)
The presumptive winner of the Buckeyes’ quarterback competition will be a massive must-see performer each week. Stroud earned more significant snaps in the Buckeyes’ spring game and simply looked better than his young competition. The former 5-star recruit is a talented dual threat who can provide about 80% of what Justin Fields brought to the program, even in Stroud’s first season.
Things became more interesting last week, though, as Ohio State recruit Quinn Ewers reclassified to become a 2021 prospect and early enrollee. Ewers is behind the developmental curve with the playbook, but he earned the distinction as the highest-rated high school quarterback in Ohio State history and the highest-rated one overall since Vince Young.
I still think Stroud wins the job because he’s had an 18-month head start on Ewers within the program. Stroud has an insane amount of pressure on him considering how talented this roster is and the caliber of players behind him. Logically, this is a revamping year for the Buckeyes, but a favorable schedule and overall talent level makes it hard to give them that benefit of the doubt.
Anthony Brown, QB, Oregon
(Check out our Pac-12 betting preview.)
The Ducks are already on their third quarterback in as many years. Mario Cristobal has brought relevance and toughness back to the program, though, and this team can endure average game managing play from the position. The Ducks must get better play if they want to reach the College Football Playoff, though.
Graduate transfer Anthony Brown has the opportunity of a lifetime as he replaces Tyler Shough. Brown had some success on a bad Boston College team before playing in two games for Oregon last year. The real barometer of success will come in this full regular season schedule.
Brown’s lack of downfield accuracy and reliable play under pressure must improve. The veteran has a good enough arm and running ability to be a dual threat on this loaded offense. His fifth year must show enough improvement to make the Ducks a viable title threat, or he could be benched for esteemed freshman Ty Thompson.
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J.T. Daniels, QB, Georgia
(Check out our SEC betting preview.)
Much like Oregon, the one position that has held Georgia back from grander achievements is quarterback. Choosing Jake Fromm over Justin Fields was one piece of a long-building puzzle of bad moves. However, junior passer J.T. Daniels has the chance to overcome that history and help Kirby Smart finally beat Alabama.
Daniels was statistically strong in 2020 but his play lacked real punch. His 67% completion rate was inflated thanks to elite playmakers helping his numbers look better than what was on the field. Daniels must create big plays with better accuracy, creation ability, and anticipation.
There’s reason to believe a full offseason can help his knee continue rehabbing. Another offseason in the Georgia program can also bring comfort within the system. Georgia’s banking on the former USC passer to elevate his game.
Graham Mertz, QB, Wisconsin
(Check out our Big Ten West division preview.)
Can Wisconsin finally break through their earned stigma as a solid Big Ten team that lacks the athleticism to compete for a title? They finally have the quarterback who can make that happen. We’ve seen Graham Mertz play as well as a pure-pocket passer as almost anyone in the nation for short bursts.
Maybe his nine-game statline won’t impress everyone, but watching him play brings excitement to a unit that has lacked passing prowess since Russell Wilson. Mertz possesses great accuracy and velocity on short and intermediate throws. Combining his skill set with a strong running game should lead to an easy Big Ten West title.
It’s also possible Mertz had early success and will never fulfill some of the potential that can show early in someone’s career. If that comes to pass, Iowa will become a true competitor in the division, and Wisconsin will have no shot at unseating Ohio State for the conference crown.
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D’Eriq King, QB, Miami (FL)
(Check out our ACC betting preview.)
My favorite quarterback in the nation chose to return for his sixth season in 2021. D’Eriq King was phenomenal in his first season with the Miami Hurricanes, racking up huge numbers. I think he could win the Heisman Trophy if the ‘Canes can simply win more this year.
He has a great chance to lead this more experienced roster. Miami had one of the strongest SP+ numbers from 2020 and is bringing a whopping 91% of production back. This bodes extremely well as their top competition, North Carolina, has to overcome losing almost all of their offensive playmakers and key defenders.
King has the platform and skill set to overwhelm every single defense he faces, including Alabama. I don’t foresee a national title for the Hurricanes but I do think Miami can win the ACC if they can stay healthy.
