Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The college football season officially kicks off at the end of August. Finally, we have a fresh slate of games to make weekly picks on. We’re breaking down each conference to give you the best look at college football divisional odds that you’ll find anywhere.
The Big Ten West offers some of the best value bets we’ll find in any of the team futures in the preseason. While Ohio State is a given winner in the Big Ten East, the West has two close teams at the top and then a slew of uncertainty behind them. Does any longshot have a realistic pathway to the crown?
(Follow along with our entire college football conference betting preview series here.)
We’ll look at that and more for each Big Ten West contender. From Wisconsin to Illinois, let’s breakdown each Big Ten West team and project how their season will play out.
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Wisconsin Badgers division winner odds
(-115, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Consistent performance has become a hallmark feature of the Wisconsin Badgers program under head coach Paul Chryst. Through seven years at Wisconsin, Chryst has produced just one season under 10 wins prior to their coronavirus-shortened 2020 campaign. Through solid recruiting and great coaching, this team is predictable and plays their best when working with a slew of seniors.
I love the Badgers’ outlook for 2021, because this is the best overall situation they’ve had to transcend their previous limitations. Maybe they won’t match their 13-1 record in 2017, but sophomore quarterback Graham Mertz has first-round NFL talent and a whopping 14 seniors starters around him. No moment should be too big for the Badgers.
There’s more upside to Wisconsin than any of their competitors because of their experience and playmaking backfield. I expect Mertz to continue his breakout, and freshman rusher Jalen Berger can tote the rock to a big season. All of Wisconsin’s big games are at home and they get to avoid Ohio State, making them ripe for a big season.
Iowa Hawkeyes division winner odds
(+190, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The biggest competition for Wisconsin is Iowa. But make no mistake, Iowa’s biggest claim to opportunity isn’t that they’re a superteam, it’s because of their opportunity. Their schedule and identity give them the chance to slip by Wisconsin if the Badgers fall unexpectedly to a conference foe.
Iowa could start 0-2 with games against Indiana and at Iowa State. Their only two notable games remaining are Penn State in early October, and then at Wisconsin at the end of October. They’ll be favored in every other game.
There’s no question star running back Tyler Goodson is a massive presence within the Big Ten West. But quarterback Spencer Petras was a negative presence in 2020 despite the team finishing 6-2. The offense will struggle if his accuracy doesn’t improve.
If the Hawkeyes defense again finishes as a top-10 overall unit in 2021, this team will prove to be a great value competitor to Wisconsin for the divisional crown. They’re not my bet, but they’re going to be in the mix.
Minnesota Golden Gophers division winner odds
(+900, DraftKings Sportsbook)
What version of Minnesota’s offense will we see in 2021? Quarterback Tanner Morgan endured a massive dropoff last season without Tyler Johnson on the unit, but it’s not as if the Gophers were short on talent. Simply put, Morgan must be closer to the 2019 version of himself, where he completed 66% of his passes for 3,253 yards and 30 touchdowns than the abysmal version that took the field in 2020.
The defense will also be under scrutiny as a whopping 84% of production from last year is back. Last year’s team allowed an insane 6.3 yards per carry and over 206 yards per game. With Ohio State coming in Week 1, we’ll know right away whether P.J. Fleck was able to right his team’s issues over the offseason.
A brutal end to the schedule features games at Iowa and Indiana, then hosting Wisconsin. The only way Minnesota can win the Big Ten West is if the offense steps up to their once-elite level. All eyes will be on Morgan and running back Mohamed Ibrahim to carry this team.
Nebraska Cornhuskers division winner odds
(+1100, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Nebraska’s 2021 profile is a true dichotomy. Their offense has a slew of freshmen along the offensive line and graduate transfers at the playmaker spots. It’s only fair to expect very little from the group considering the tumultuous state of the program under Scott Frost.
Quarterback Adrian Martinez must perform and fulfill the recruiting hype before Frost is all but forced to bench him. The dual threat has been anything but a dynamic playmaker for much of his career. Hopefully getting several older receivers into the building will help give stability.
The defense at least has a chance to be average. They have the ninth-most production returning in 2021 and the lumps taken last year should lead to more success this year. In total though, the Cornhuskers are being overvalued and will be at-best mediocre.
Northwestern Wildcats division winner odds
(+1500, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Want to see the toughest coaching job of 2021? Northwestern is in line for a huge overhaul as they rank second in production turnover from 2020. Only BYU lost more entering 2021.
The good news is head coach Pat Fitzgerald has generally done a wonderful job whenever the cycle resets and he has a slew of young players. I’m optimistic the Wildcats will outperform the low expectations as he acquired transfer receiver Stephon Robinson Jr. and quarterback Ryan Hilinski to headline the offense. The defensive front seven is also bolstered with transfers.
The Wildcats can only win the Big Ten West if Hilinski or former five-star transfer Hunter Johnson prove to be superstars. It’s highly unlikely, though.
Purdue Boilermakers division winner odds
(+2500, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The two storylines that will define Purdue’s season don’t have to do with who starts at quarterback between Aidan O’Connell and Jack Plummer, but rather has to do with the trench play on both sides. Can the Boilermakers run more effectively with a more experienced offensive line? On defense, can the secondary prove more effective in slowing down their opposition?
Few teams have the quality playmaker combination of David Bell and Zander Horvath within the entire Big Ten. But the offense needs comfort from the defense. Far too often they had to play in shootouts because the unit couldn’t force a stop when needed.
Purdue will be a fun but ineffective team again in 2021 with their deficiencies. Jeff Brohm’s lack of defensive consistency has become a plaguing problem for his teams.
Illinois Fighting Illini division winner odds
(+4000, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Did you know the Illinois offense failed to produce a starting passer who completed over 50% of their passes in 2020? Three players tried but failed to hit the low standard, and therein lies the concern with Brett Bielema’s crew for this season. While it’s great his three-leading rushers combined for excellent numbers, that style will only get a team so far.
Between a four-way quarterback battle and five transfer receivers entering the program, the Illini offense may look substantially better in 2021. But it may not too with so much turnover. The roster is littered with graduate transfers looking to make their name before they depart the collegiate ranks.
There’s not much value with this bet, and it’s surprising the Illini are even at +4000 to win the Big Ten West.
