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Patrick Mahomes Over 28.5 Rushing Yards

KANSAS CITY, MO – JANUARY 19: Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) celebrates after a play against the Tennessee Titans on January 19, 2020, at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by William Purnell/Icon Sportswire)

One thing I have learned about Patrick Mahomes over the last several years is that in big moments, when games matter the most, he is going to leave it all on the field. If that means using his legs and taking a big hit or two, at the end of the day, this is an athlete that wants to win. In four Super Bowl appearances, Mahomes has averaged 43 rushing yards per game, with 7.3 rushing attempts per game. Notably, only one of those four games saw Mahomes take end of game kneel downs, which came back in 2020 against the 49ers. He lost 15 yards on three kneel downs on the final possession. He still had six other rushing attempts in that game. From week 11 through the end of the regular season, the Eagles allowed the highest scramble rate (8.4%) in the NFL, per the FTN StatsHub. Mahomes has averaged 32 rushing yards per game in his last five games against a Vic Fangio defense. Only one of those games had the playoff bump (Super Bowl 57), where Mahomes rushed for 44 yards.

DeVonta Smith Over 49.5 Receiving Yards

(-114, BetRivers)

Per the FTN Prop Tool, DeVonta Smith is projected for 60.3 receiving yards, giving him just under an 8% edge on this number. While the bulk of Philadelphia’s offensive success has come on the ground, I do believe they need to have quite a bit of success through the air if they have any chance of winning this game. I have no doubt Steve Spagnuolo will make Jalen Hurts beat them, rather than watch Saquon Barkley run the way he has all season. Both A.J. Brown and Smith will need to step up. With a 95.9 matchup rating per the WR/CB Tool, I’ll take Smith at the lower number given he and Brown’s target shares are relatively similar, with Smith seeing just 1.5% fewer targets.

Travis Kelce 60+ Receiving Yards

Lastly, I was on Kelce in the AFC Championship and he was simply never part of the offensive game plan. I suspect that changes in the Super Bowl. Zach Ertz saw a ridiculous 16 targets in the NFC Championship, bringing in 11 for 104 yards. It’s obviously worth noting the Commanders played in a negative gamescript throughout the second half. Seven of his 16 targets came in Washington’s final three possessions from a deficit of 18 or more. Now, that still means Ertz was the primary target for Daniels throughout the game to that point. Kelce should have a substantial role here, regardless of the gamescript.