
Again, it doesn’t look like it will be snowing, which is always good for generating turnovers, but these defensive squads are good enough at taking the ball anyway. Both are top 10 in takeaways, and although the Bills rarely give the ball away, the 49ers have given the ball up on a fumble or interception 16 times already. With the cold weather and wind, the ball will struggle to travel downfield and will also be rock hard, making it harder to hold onto throughout the night. I think we’ll see a turnover or two, which means we’ll have an opportunity for a defender to score. If kickoffs can’t get deep into the end zone, that means more chances for kick returners to do something special. At +2200 or better, I’m wagering on both defenses to get the ball across the goal line first.
Do you know who has the most receiving touchdowns for the Buffalo Bills? It’s a tie between Keon Coleman and, you guessed it, Mack Hollins! Although the receiver is often used as a blocker, he’s played the most snaps of any skill position player for the Bills and has seen his target share increase each week. With the 49ers locked onto Khalil Shakir and James Cook, I expect Hollins to find some space for a shot catch for six. At +2500 or better, I’m betting it’s the first six-pointer of the night.
Samuel has been second in targets over the past few weeks. Now, that was without Keon Coleman, who could play tonight. Even if Coleman does play, I expect Samuel to continue to see targets anyway. He saw plenty when Coleman played, including red-zone targets, and Samuel even out-targeted Coleman in a few games. He’s always had a nose for the end zone and should be able to find space against a 49ers defense that hasn’t been as good over the past few weeks. There’s also a chance that Samuel gets a rushing opportunity, which has been effective against San Francisco. At +2500 or better, I’m willing to wager that Samuel scores the first touchdown tonight.
There aren’t many good ways to attack the Bills defense, but opponents have had some success running the ball. Of course, Christian McCaffrey will be the main beneficiary of that, but other ball-carriers for the 49ers will have an easier day as well. San Francisco tends not to play a backup running back and instead relies on its fullback and quarterback to move the ball on the ground. Purdy is coming back from a shoulder injury, but he’s never been shy running the ball, and I don’t expect him to suddenly get tentative in a must-win game. He’s got four rushing touchdowns already this year, and I think there’s a good chance for him to get his fifth. Juszczyk is used in high-leverage situations and in special plays near the goal line, which should be even more likely in a game the 49ers have to win. At +3500 or better for Purdy and +6000 or better for Juszczyk, I’m betting that they will surprise us by running across the goal line before anyone else.