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Welcome to Week 12 of our DVOA-based picks.

Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we pick every game.

Every week I will post picks on Thursday morning for subscribers. Come back here on Sunday morning and I will update the picks before the 1pm games begin. (This week, picks are going up a day early due to Thanksgiving.)

The picks are listed with a confidence order and the picks with the strongest confidence will be colored blue. Those are picks with a difference of at least 7 points (straight up) or 3 points (spread and total). I do not make picks where the difference between the projection and the actual line is 0.1 points or lower.

ORDER HOME AWAY LINE (HOME) PROJ LINE SPREAD PICK CONF. ORDER STRAIGHT PICK CONF. ORDER TOTAL PROJ TOTAL TOTAL PICK CONF. ORDER
1 DET GB -7.5 -7.8 DET 15 DET 5 47 46.8 Under 15
2 DAL WAS -12.5 -11.3 WAS 7 DAL 1 48.5 44.6 Under 2
3 SEA SF 7 8.5 SF 6 SF 4 43 45.3 Over 4
4 NYJ MIA 10 10 — — MIA 2 41 38.9 Under 5
5 HOU JAX 1.5 2.1 JAX 12 JAX 13 48 45.5 Under 3
6 IND TB -2.5 -2.1 TB 13 IND 12 44.5 46 Over 9
7 NYG NE 4.5 6.6 NE 4 NE 6 35.5 37.4 Over 6
8 TEN CAR -3.5 -5.8 TEN 3 TEN 7 36 37.7 Over 8
9 CIN PIT 2.5 4.1 PIT 5 PIT 9 36.5 40.9 Over 1
10 ATL NO 1.5 2.2 NO 10 NO 11 42 43.9 Over 7
11 ARI LAR 3 1.9 ARI 8 LAR 14 45 46.4 Over 10
12 DEN CLE -1.5 -1.2 CLE 14 DEN 15 37.5 38.8 Over 11
13 PHI BUF -3 -0.6 BUF 2 PHI 16 49 48.5 Under 14
14 LV KC 9 9.9 KC 9 KC 3 42.5 42.4 — —
15 LAC BAL 3 5.5 BAL 1 BAL 8 48.5 49.2 Over 13
16 MIN CHI -3 -2.4 CHI 11 MIN 10 44 43.1 Under 12

W-L record through Week 11