Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Thursday 9/21)

Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!

Today, MLBdream provides his picks. 

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Detroit Tigers @ Oakland Athletics 

Tigers -178 @ Athletics +150 – Total 7.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Seth Lugo cashed a couple bets for us Wednesday as we head back to the pitcher prop market this Thursday evening. The 100-loss A’s host the Tigers for a four-game set at the Coliseum. Tarik Skubal takes the ball for Detroit. He is enjoying a great season after his 2022 season was cut short due to a flexor tendon injury. 

Over the last 30 days nobody has a higher strikeout percentage against left-handed pitching than the A’s at 28.5%. Oakland has posted the fourth-highest swinging-strike percentage this season at 12.6%. That number is even higher over the last 14 days at 14.6% – which is the second worst in baseball. Not only is Oakland chasing pitches, but they have the second-worst contact rate on pitches inside the strike zone at 81.3% in that 14-day time frame. The A’s average the fourth-highest strikeouts per game at home at 9.35. Oakland has had a tough time with changeups this season especially, as their 25.3% K% against that offering ranks fifth highest in baseball. That doesn’t bode well for their matchup. 

Through 69.1 innings, Skubal has posted the best strikeout percentage of his career at 30.7%. That isn’t the only career-best he’s managed this season, his 14.4% swinging-strike percentage is over 2% better than his career average. If you lower the minimum innings threshold to 60, Skubal’s strikeout percentage ranks eighth in baseball. His swinging-strike percentage isn’t far behind, sitting ninth best. Skubal has made it tough on batters on pitches inside the zone, ranking top 20 in zone-contact percentage as well. I mentioned the A’s struggles with changeups above, Skubal features his changeup 22% of the time, his second-most thrown pitch. That offering carries a 43.5% K% this season, his most lethal punchout pitch. 

I’m projecting Skubal to pitch about six innings and punchout seven or eight batters and get us to the window. It’s always nice when Frank Brank’s Strikeout Model agrees with our bet; Frank projects the 26-year-old for 8.33 punchouts. As always, be sure to use the FTN Prop Shop to grab the best number available.

Bet

Tarik Skubal Over 6.5 K’s (-137, FanDuel Sportsbook)