Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Week 3 of the NFL season starts Thursday with the San Francisco 49ers hosting the New York Giants. With New York running back Saquon Barkley sidelined with an ankle sprain, San Francisco sits as 10.5-point favorites across most sportsbooks.
Each week, I will select my favorite prop bets on the Thursday Night Slate. You can find all our Week 2 player projections here at FTNBets. All of the available betting lines for this week’s opening matchup are available on our FTNBets Prop Shop, where you can easily shop around for the sportsbook with the best odds on each player or team.
Let’s take a look at my favorite prop for this week’s Thursday night matchup!
Week 3 Player Prop
Elijah Mitchell Over 28.5 Rushing Yards
(-130, DraftKings Sportsbook)
I targeted this prop as soon as lines were available and loved it even more when Josh Gross backed it as one of his favorite plays on Wednesday night’s podcast.
It’s hard to find betting advantages early in the season, especially because we have limited data upon which to draw conclusions. However, I do believe San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan when he states his preference to limit the workload of lead running back Christian McCaffrey.
McCaffery has 48 touches through two weeks, including a league-leading 42 carries among all running backs. Thursday is the perfect opportunity for Mitchell’s workload to increase, facing a Giants team as 10.5-point underdogs on a short week. The Giants run defense ranks just 24th in DVOA through two games, including 106 yards to Arizona’s James Conner Sunday. San Francisco brings one of the NFL’s most efficient rushing attacks, ranking second in run offense DVOA per FTNFantasy.
Due to his constant injuries, we tend to forget the level of explosiveness that Mitchell brings to each game. In 2022, Elijah Mitchell battled two MCL sprains, only playing in five regular season games, but he averaged 55.8 rushing yards in those five contests. Mitchell still brings elite 4.4 speed and can break a 30-yard run on any carry. Given his health, athleticism, Shanahan’s comments, and the huge point spread, I’m backing Mitchell to crest this number at 30-plus yards against the Giants.
We project Mitchell for 32.9 rushing yards, per our FTN Player Projections Model. Regardless of gamescript, Mitchell should see his biggest workload of the season.
