NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
Tyler HigbeeReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Bengals vs. Rams
Right now, Tyler Higbee’s receiving yards prop is set at 31.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Rams are a 3-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
- The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Rams to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 61.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The leading projections forecast Tyler Higbee to garner 5.5 targets in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 89th percentile among TEs.
- Tyler Higbee has been heavily involved in his team’s pass game, garnering a Target Share of 19.0% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 93rd percentile among tight ends.
- Tyler Higbee has been among the best pass-game TEs since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 37.0 yards per game while checking in at the 90th percentile.
Cons
- Our trusted projections expect the Rams to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Rams have played in the 2nd-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should lead to reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack performance when facing windier conditions this week.
- The Los Angeles Rams offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
- The Cincinnati Bengals defense has given up the 4th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 36.0) versus TEs since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
32
Receiving Yards
32
Receiving Yards
