Running back land mines to avoid in 2020

You have to avoid the early-round running back busts in your fantasy football drafts. Every year there are guys who are simply going to high in drafts. Drafting players at their ceiling is the quickest way to lose a league. Of course, they can hit their ceilings, but playing for the high end of the range of outcomes and paying that price is a fool's errand.

All players can provide value — the question is what is the cost. As players shoot up draft boards, it is critical to recognize the opportunity to get them on your teams has passed you buy. Here are three backs I am avoiding in drafts at current cost in 2020 NFL fantasy football drafts.

Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns

You will notice a theme in this piece: It’s not about a lack of talent, but rather a crowded backfield and questionable-at-best passing-game usage. Chubb is an incredibly gifted runner — the problem is he is not the only gifted player in that backfield. While Kareem Hunt has had his issues off the field, on the field there is no doubt on his ability. Before Hunt returned from his suspension last year, Chubb was averaging 4.0 targets per game and was RB6 overall. Once Hunt returned, Chubb’s targets were cut in half and he was RB15, dropping nine spots. Not only did Chubb’s targets go down, but so did his snaps. The two biggest predictive measures for running backs are snaps and weighted opportunity — simply put, how much you are on the field and how involved you are. Both trended downward for Chubb. Once Hunt returned to action, Chubb played less than 80% of the snaps in all but one game, a share he had consistently eclipsed without Hunt. Currently on Yahoo, Chubb is RB8 off the board, a price tag that more-or-less requires him to score 14-plus touchdowns or have Hunt miss significant time. Paying a premium price for a back in a committee whose snaps and targets are sure to drop is a bad buy at current cost. 

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Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers

Like Chubb, there is no questioning Jones’ talent. Last year’s touchdown leader is due for regression and will now compete with more mouths to feed after his team took A.J. Dillon in the second round of this year’s draft. Jones scored 19 touchdowns last season, but that number won’t repeat itself. He also for some reason has to share reps with Jamaal Williams, playing less than 60% of the snaps in all but two games Williams was healthy for. That low snap share is going to continue to limit his upside. Add in Dillion as a bruising back who could eat into his goal-line touches, and the juice simply isn't worth the squeeze. Scoring fewer touchdowns, playing fewer snaps and paying a premium price? This is pretty simple: That’s a no from me dog.

Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

I love Taylor the prospect. He has one of the best athletic profiles of any running back ever. We’re looking at a 226-pound back who blazed a 4.39-second 40 and rushed for well over 6,000 yards in three years at Wisconsin. As a pure runner, he is one of my highest-graded prospects this decade, comparing favorably to Ezekiel Elliott and Chubb. However, there are legit concerns. Taylor lacks a receiving profile; that is going to be a work in progress for him. That’s not to say he won’t get there, but it’s highly unlikely he will get there overnight in the NFL. He also is competing with Nyhiem Hines, who saw 58 targets last season and will remain involved in the passing game, according to head coach Frank Reich. On top of that, Marlon Mack is still a Colt for at least one more season. Reports out of camp indicate Mack might lead the one-two punch to start the season. The moral of the story is that Taylor is in for a lot of competition for touches and unlikely to pay off much in the passing game. In the prop market, Taylor has a total over just 700.5 rushing yards, but he is frequently going in the third and fourth rounds of drafts ahead of guys like Leonard Fournette, Le'Veon Bell and David Johnson, all of whom have rushing props at least 150 yards higher and who project to be far more featured in the passing game. There are reasons to be excited for Taylor — lots of them — but right now you are paying for what is likely 2021 production.