NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Brian RobinsonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Commanders vs. Cowboys
Right now, Brian Robinson’s rushing yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 39.5 (-110) after it opened @ 42.5 (-110).
Pros
- The model projects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.6 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
- The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
- Out of all running backs, Brian Robinson grades out in the 92nd percentile for carries this year, comprising 60.4% of the workload in his offense’s ground game.
Cons
- The Commanders are a big 13.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
- The predictive model expects the Commanders to be the least run-focused team on the slate this week with a 33.6% run rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- In regards to blocking for rushers (and the ramifications it has on all run game stats), the O-line of the Commanders profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL last year.
- Brian Robinson’s 49.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season signifies a remarkable drop-off in his running proficiency over last season’s 63.0 mark.
- As it relates to the defensive ends’ role in run defense, Dallas’s unit has been one of the most skilled this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
48
Rushing Yards
48
Rushing Yards
